On November 6th, yesterday Thursday we believed that the release of the US midterm election results directly triggered a rebound in gold prices. Combined with the easing of Middle East geopolitical risk premiums, short covering, bargain hunting, and sustained central bank gold purchases, these factors jointly supported gold prices rising for two consecutive trading days. Therefore, in terms of operations, we suggested that upside resistance could be watched at $4,150, followed by $4,200, while downside support could be watched at $4,100, followed by $4,070.
Looking at the subsequent price action, during Thursday's European session, gold rebounded slightly, rising to $4,138 before encountering resistance. After the US session opened, gold probed upward again, rebounding to $4,136 before facing resistance. Afterwards, gold prices oscillated lower, losing the $4,100 integer level and falling to $4,076 where it stabilized. After Friday's open, gold continued its oscillating decline, hitting a low of $4,035 where it stabilized, then rebounding to $4,080 before meeting resistance. It is currently trading at $4,069. Overall, gold surged and then pulled back on Thursday, extending its decline on Friday, with the short-term rebound height of gold prices still being limited.
Wolfinance star analyst believes that gold hitting a fresh two-week high on Thursday but then giving back most of its gains was the result of short-term positive factors being fully priced in, with multiple bearish factors resonating together. Specifically, the US midterm election results became clear, and the US dollar and Treasury yields fell simultaneously, providing support for gold's rebound. However, after two trading days of significant gains, the market accumulated substantial short-term profit-taking positions. Meanwhile, policy events can only change short-term paths, while the monetary path is the anchor for medium-term pricing. As the US dollar rebounded, gold's upward momentum quickly exhausted. Additionally, Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish remarks for two consecutive days, market bets on a December rate hike remained elevated, and US tech stocks, especially the AI sector, suffered massive selling, with the demand for liquidity leading to the selling of highly liquid assets like gold.
Looking ahead, focus will be on tonight's US nonfarm payrolls data. If it further strengthens rate hike expectations, it will be bearish for gold; otherwise, it will support gold prices. On the daily chart, after gold hit a fresh two-week high, its upward momentum met resistance and pulled back, with gold prices oscillating at high levels, awaiting tonight's nonfarm payrolls for direction. For gold's downside support, watch the intraday low of $4,035, followed by the $4,000 integer level. For gold's upside resistance, watch the $4,100 integer level, followed by the area near Thursday's rebound high of $4,150. The 5-day moving average has begun to form a golden cross, and the MACD indicator is crossing upward. However, the KDJ indicator has entered overbought territory and slowed significantly, while the RSI indicator has turned downward after a golden cross. The short-term technical picture suggests that after gold's recent sharp surge, upward momentum has weakened somewhat, and caution is needed regarding pullback or consolidation risks.
Gold intraday reference: Gold surged and pulled back, with short-term upward momentum weakening, though the pullback in gold prices has been relatively limited, temporarily maintaining high-level oscillation as the market awaits tonight's nonfarm payrolls data for direction. In terms of operations, it is recommended to adopt a range-trading approach, with downside support to watch at $4,035 and $4,000, and upside resistance to watch at $4,100 and $4,150.
Comments