Assessing the Significance of China's 4.7% First-Half Economic Expansion

Deep News08-24

Adversity reveals true resilience, and challenges build strength. During the first half of the year, China's economy advanced despite pressure, maintaining a stable overall trajectory with a shift towards innovation and quality, as the Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.7% year-on-year. We have effectively responded to changes in the external environment, including geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, while skillfully managing complex domestic situations marked by supply-demand imbalances and overlapping new and old issues, achieving results that were hard-earned and commendable. Against the set targets, a 4.7% growth rate is an economic expansion that aligns with expectations. The annual growth target of 4.5% to 5% was established at the Central Economic Work Conference and the National People's Congress and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference sessions, and the first-half rate of 4.7% falls within this reasonable range, consistent with the Party Central Committee's scientific assessment and strategic deployment requirements, laying a solid foundation for a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Key economic indicators are operating smoothly, with employment and prices remaining stable. The 4.7% growth rate essentially matches current conditions, including factor supply, technological progress, and institutional innovation, representing a pragmatic speed consistent with the potential economic growth rate. Major economically developed provinces generally grew faster than the national average, playing a pivotal supporting role. Additionally, in the first half of the year, financial risks continued to subside, local government debt risks were addressed in an orderly manner, and various constraints were maintained with appropriate flexibility, leaving room to manage uncertainty and enhance the quality of development. Looking at the structure, 4.7% represents an economic growth rate with substantial substance. Behind the growth rate is the economy's shift towards new drivers and an optimized structure, delivering a high-quality development report card that is stable at its foundation and progressive in momentum. The technological content is higher. New quality productive forces are gaining momentum, with chain-leading innovative enterprises holding core technologies and specialized, refined, distinctive, and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises emerging and growing at an accelerated pace. In the first half of the year, new drivers directly contributed over 40% to economic growth. Artificial intelligence is empowering various industries, with a recent wave of next-generation open-source large models released, a systematic Chinese proposal for AI ecosystem construction and governance order, and continuous innovation outcomes, with AI-related patent grants increasing by 34.8% year-on-year. The green content is richer. The pace of green and low-carbon energy transition is accelerating, with clean energy power generation by above-scale enterprises accounting for 36.2% of total output in the first half of the year. Green new drivers are growing faster, with lithium battery production up by 39.3%, new energy vehicle retail penetration reaching a cumulative 54.1%, and the orderly construction of zero-carbon industrial parks and zero-carbon transportation corridors. The livelihood content is more tangible. Actions have been implemented to stabilize employment, expand job opportunities, and improve quality, with increased social security efforts and steady growth in residents' income. In the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of national residents grew by 5.2% nominally year-on-year. The consumer market continues to expand, with new growth points such as service consumption and experience consumption being cultivated. Service retail sales grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, with consumption in lower-tier markets like counties leading growth, and holiday and inbound consumption remaining robust. Advancing despite pressure, 4.7% is an economic growth rate with strong resilience. With deepening adverse external impacts combined with domestic cyclical and structural pressures, the economy has delivered a qualified answer by "sailing through stormy seas," demonstrating formidable capacity to withstand shocks and self-adjust. Externally, geopolitical turmoil persists, with Middle East conflicts impacting the global energy market, causing energy shortages and high oil prices in many countries. China has proactively planned the construction of a new energy system and strategic petroleum reserves, implemented a market diversification strategy, and effectively ensured stable energy supply and prices, with no market oil product shortages observed in the past six months, bolstering confidence in energy security. Additionally, amidst rising global trade protectionism and increased tariff and non-tariff barriers, Chinese products, with their high cost-performance ratio, are gaining favor among residents in more countries. Exports remain robust, with products ranging from electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics to AI, robotics, and innovative drugs, reshaping the foreign trade landscape through cutting-edge technology and original capabilities. Internally, addressing risks accumulated over years, such as local government debt, real estate market adjustments, and issues in small and medium-sized financial institutions, has had a certain contractionary effect on the economy, requiring some sacrifice in economic growth. However, this short-term cost is exchanged for long-term stable and sustainable economic and social development. Furthermore, from a market fundamentals perspective, the contradiction of strong supply and weak demand remains prominent, particularly as investment faces significant pressure to stabilize and recover. The investment growth rate is closely linked to the development stage. Currently, the focus of investment policy is not to simply maintain a certain speed but to better meet the requirements of high-quality development, emphasizing investment quality and comprehensive benefits. In the first half of the year, efforts were focused on strengthening the coordinated construction of the "six networks," promoting manufacturing updates and upgrades, and addressing shortcomings in water conservancy and urban underground pipeline networks, directing more resources towards future-oriented investments and livelihood improvements. Looking ahead, 4.7% is an economic growth rate with substantial potential. China's economy possesses vast room for development, immense market potential, and strong resilience and vitality. Growth has potential. With continued increases in R&D investment, the country's original innovation capabilities are strengthening, and the deep integration of technological and industrial innovation is making innovation-driven development a powerful engine for economic growth. The scale of China's talent pool leads globally, with human capital steadily transitioning from a demographic dividend to a quality dividend. New production factors such as data and computing power continue to empower traditional factors, jointly supporting high-quality economic development. Reform brings dividends. We emphasize using reform methods to solve development challenges, with the economy's endogenous drivers continuously strengthening. The construction of a unified national market is advancing in depth, with issues in areas like local government irregular investment promotion, market access barriers, and bidding procedures being addressed, which will expand the breadth and depth of the market and further unleash the potential of the super-large market. Continued comprehensive rectification of "involution-style" competition will shape a more benign market environment, forcing enterprises to move away from competition based solely on price and accelerate the shift from scale expansion and price competition to quality improvement and value competition. Policy has room. Compared to some economies that rely on high debt and high deficits to stimulate growth, China has not followed a path of excessive dependence on strong policy stimulus. Aggregate policies remain proactive and effective, while structural policies are precisely targeted, avoiding the formation of a "policy dependency." Overall, the supporting conditions and fundamental trends for the long-term sound development of China's economy remain unchanged. The macro-policy toolbox is well-stocked, and there is still considerable room for counter-cyclical adjustment. We are capable of introducing pragmatic and effective incremental policies based on changes in the situation and are confident in achieving the full-year economic and social development goals and tasks.

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