On Thursday, July 9, international gold extended its rebound from the previous day's lows, closing higher and recouping losses. The move was supported by comments from former U.S. President Trump suggesting Iran's willingness to reach a deal, coupled with reports indicating Iran currently has no intention of dragging Israel into the conflict. Technical-level negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are reportedly ongoing, alleviating concerns that escalating hostilities could fuel inflation and push interest rates higher. Additionally, reports that Russian President Putin has rejected calls for peace talks, potentially escalating the situation in the coming months, bolstered safe-haven demand, contributing to gold's recovery. However, prices continue to face resistance from moving averages, suggesting the short-term trend will likely remain consolidative with a moderately strong bias, awaiting a rebound.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,075.72 per ounce, initially dipped to a daily low of $4,054.13 around midday, then reversed course and gained strength, oscillating higher. The upward momentum extended into the U.S. session, where it reached an intraday high of $4,137.83. The rally eventually encountered some resistance, slowing the pace of gains, and the metal settled at $4,123.35. The daily range was $83.70, with a closing gain of $47.60, or 1.17%.
Looking ahead to Friday, July 10, international gold opened with limited upward momentum due to resistance from moving averages. However, the U.S. dollar index weakened yesterday and opened today's session trading below its own moving average resistance. Its technical indicators also maintain bearish signals, hinting at a short-term weakness and continued risk of a pullback, factors which would be supportive for gold. Furthermore, crude oil prices retreated yesterday after encountering resistance, erasing Wednesday's gains. This also helps temper inflation pressures and the outlook for interest rate hikes, providing additional support for gold. Therefore, for the day and the near-term outlook, gold prices are still biased towards consolidating with an upward bias.
There are no major data releases or events in focus today. Market movements are expected to follow through on factors and developments from the existing week. Consequently, the current easing of U.S.-Iran tensions—with Israeli media reporting Iran's current lack of intent to involve Israel in the conflict, and Pakistan continuing its mediation efforts potentially reopening a window for U.S.-Iran talks—could weigh on oil prices. This would further reduce inflation pressures and the prospect of rate hikes, thereby supporting gold. Combined with Putin's rejection of peace talks and his suggestion that the situation could escalate in the coming months, which would enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, the outlook for prices suggests they will either continue in a consolidation phase or embark on a recovery rebound.
From a technical perspective, on the weekly chart, gold prices have now formed a bottoming and bullish reversal pattern for two consecutive weeks, also creating a bullish engulfing pattern. This suggests the market may be poised for a sustained rebound in the period ahead. Although prices moved lower this week, a bullish pattern is potentially forming again. Therefore, the outlook is either for continued consolidation without significant change or for a shift towards a bullish rebound in the coming weeks.
However, as the price action remains under pressure and below the key trendline resistance at $4,500, there is still a risk of another corrective decline. Thus, any sustained rebound should still be viewed as a phase of bullishness within a larger context.
On the daily chart, yesterday's rebound indicates waning bearish momentum, but the price faces significant resistance from a cluster of moving averages overhead. The price action outlook therefore still leans towards consolidation, and trading should continue to involve selling on rallies and buying on dips. Resistance near yesterday's high and the 30-day moving average should be watched for potential selling opportunities, while support near the 10-day moving average and below should be monitored for potential buying opportunities for a rebound.
The following are preliminary reference points for intraday long and short positioning ideas. Specific entry and exit points should be determined based on real-time trading notifications.
Gold: Monitor support around $4,095 or $4,070; watch resistance around $4,150 or $4,175.
Silver: Monitor support around $59.25 or $58.35; watch resistance around $61.00 or $61.60.
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