During Monday's European trading session, risk assets broadly advanced, with international copper prices rising alongside other metals, nearing historical highs. The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) gained approximately 0.6% to $13,646 per ton, reaching its highest intraday level since January 29. According to LME data, the three-month copper contract last recorded its highest-ever closing price also on January 29 of this year, at $13,952 per ton. Analysts note that despite setbacks in US-Iran negotiations, traders have reacted mildly. Industrial metals from copper to zinc have demonstrated resilience against the backdrop of Middle East conflicts, partly due to emerging signs of demand outstripping supply. Middle East tensions disrupting transport through the Strait of Hormuz could theoretically impact up to 8% of global mined copper supply, with the largest potential supply gaps for sulfuric acid affecting major producers Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo. A Morgan Stanley report forecasts global data center copper consumption will rise to 740,000 tons by 2026, contributing 0.6 percentage points to global copper demand growth. By 2027, data center copper consumption is projected to reach 1 million tons (2.8% of total demand), increasing further to 1.3 million tons (3.3%) by 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of 40%. Additionally, a JPMorgan report highlights that Chinese copper inventories are not only declining but doing so at a pace significantly faster than seasonal norms. Meanwhile, the Yangshan copper premium remains low at around $70 per ton, yet it has not weakened further following the LME copper price rebound, indicating Chinese buyers continue active procurement even at elevated prices. A recent Jefferies report similarly underscores severe supply-side realities. Based on disclosed first-quarter production data from a sample representing 39% of global supply, total output fell 4.9% year-on-year and 6.4% quarter-on-quarter. Operational challenges at giants like Codelco, Freeport, and Ivanhoe Mines continue to hamper production. The market perceives that the copper market may be moving beyond its historical "three-year rise, two-year decline" cyclical pattern, likely entering a period of supply-demand mismatch expected to last several years. Related Hong Kong-listed copper mining companies include: CMOC (03993), ZIJIN MINING (02899), Jiangxi Copper (00358), MMG (01208), and China Nonferrous Mining (01258).
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