UBS: CM BANK (03968) Sees Significant Drop in NPL Provision Coverage, Maintains "Neutral" Rating

Stock News01-26

UBS released a research report noting that China Merchants Bank (03968) announced its preliminary 2025 annual results, with revenue and net profit reaching 337.5 billion yuan and 150.2 billion yuan, respectively. Full-year revenue was flat year-on-year, reversing the declining trend observed in the first three quarters of 2025. UBS assigned China Merchants Bank a 12-month target price of HK$56, with a "Neutral" rating. The bank forecasts that CM BANK's net interest income for the fourth quarter of 2025, along with average assets, increased by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 1.73%; it also believes net fee income likely maintained robust growth, while trading income may continue to be a drag due to rising bond yields and a high comparison base. UBS also pointed out that CM BANK's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.94%, but the NPL provision coverage ratio fell significantly by 20.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 391.79%, while the loan provision ratio decreased by 24 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.68%. This may reflect the bank's maintenance of a relatively low credit cost in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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