New data indicates the Hong Kong residential property market is on a steady path to recovery, with developers no longer relying on low prices to drive sales volume. The pace of price increases for subsequent project launches is no longer restrained, with the average per-square-foot price for initial units launched in key areas this year having rebounded by approximately 15% from the lows seen over the past four years.
Information from the project strategy and advisory division of Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) shows that in 2025, many new projects saw only modest price increases of 2% to 5% based on unit quality, or were relaunched at original prices, reflecting a relatively cautious stance from developers. Entering 2026, the pricing strategy has shifted to become more aggressive, with price increases for individual units in popular projects reaching as high as 30% compared to the initial price list.
Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) Senior Director of Project Strategy and Advisory, Li Yuanfeng, stated: "Property prices bottomed out in March 2025 and have gradually rebounded since, driven by the interest rate cut cycle, the return of mainland Chinese buyers to the Hong Kong market, and improved market sentiment. Developers in major areas have altered their previously conservative pricing strategies in response to market changes. Pricing in 2026 is more assertive; they will no longer use low prices to chase volume. For some popular projects, premium units are seeing price increases frequently in the double-digit percentage range, indicating developers have strong confidence in sales. However, with the likelihood of interest rate hikes increasing, the pace of price increases for new projects in the second half of the year will be more moderate, with the trend stabilizing and moving upwards."
Taking popular residential developments along MTR railway lines as an example, recent trends show stable prices and signs of a mild recovery. Grand Seasons in Tseung Kwan O's Lohas Park launched in January last year with an initial average discounted per-square-foot price of around HKD 14,000 to HKD 15,000. By early this year, the average discounted per-square-foot price for a new batch of units at Sea To Sky I in the same area had risen to approximately HKD 15,500 to HKD 16,000, an increase of over 10% in a short period.
Pavilia Farm III in Tai Wai was relaunched this year with an initial average discounted per-square-foot price of about HKD 21,344. Prices were raised multiple times during the sales period, with some premium units exceeding HKD 25,000 per square foot. The average per-square-foot price upon relaunch was approximately 6.7% higher than the initial discounted average of HKD 19,999 in 2021. Although it has not fully recovered to the 2021 peak levels, it shows significant improvement from the market lows.
The Blue Coast series atop Wong Chuk Hang MTR Station launched in 2024 with an initial average discounted per-square-foot price of around HKD 21,000 to HKD 22,000. The latest price lists and transactions this year show premium units stabilizing at HKD 25,000 to HKD 30,000 per square foot, with some high-floor, four-bedroom units exceeding HKD 30,000 per square foot, representing an increase of about 19% to 36% from the initial launch pricing. Although prices have improved significantly from the lows of the past four years, they remain about 10% to 20% lower than the average per-square-foot price of approximately HKD 29,689 for the initial launch of projects like Mont Vert in the same area during the 2021 peak.
Jones Lang LaSalle's (JLL) Senior Director of Research, Zhong Churu, noted: "The Kai Tak Development Area, which is highly sought after by mainland Chinese buyers, has seen the strongest rebound in new project pricing. Initial per-square-foot prices for residential projects launched in the area from 2023 to 2024 were generally between HKD 16,000 and HKD 20,000. This year, the average per-square-foot price for premium units in new projects in the area has risen to above HKD 23,000, indicating a significant improvement in developers' pricing power."
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