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Spots are limited, so act fast. Let us join together for a sustainable appointment! [Click to register] Source: @Economic Observer Weibo reporter Tian Guobao. During the 2026 National Day holiday, Guo An returned to his hometown of Dacheng County in Hebei, planning to buy a retirement home for his parents. Dacheng is about 150 kilometers from Beijing. The county seat is not large, and the better education, medical, and commercial resources are concentrated in the central urban area. Guo An looked at several new projects and found that units in better locations were already priced above 10,000 yuan per square meter, and some better-quality second-hand homes in the central urban area were also listed at around 10,000 yuan per square meter. After comparing options, he chose a second-hand home about 10 years old. Guo An had originally thought that after this round of real estate market consolidation, home prices in his hometown county would be much cheaper. After viewing homes, he found that although Dacheng's home prices had pulled back, changes in the central urban area were not obvious. Li Xiang, who works in Jungar Banner in Ordos (rights protection) City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, is also preparing to trade up. Recently, his work unit released a batch of welfare housing priced at about 7,000 yuan per square meter, and he signed up immediately. Li Xiang said that local ordinary commodity housing prices are generally around 9,000 yuan per square meter, and a welfare home costs 200,000 to 300,000 yuan less than a comparable commodity home. Jungar Banner is rich in coal resources and far from first- and second-tier cities, so housing demand mainly comes from local residents. Over the past few years, local home prices have also declined, but fluctuations have been limited. Li Xiang said that even at the peak, Jungar Banner home prices were only just over 10,000 yuan per square meter. There are many other county towns with similarly stable home prices. Huiju data shows that as of September 2026, among more than 1,200 county-level small cities included in nationwide statistics, more than 400 had average second-hand home prices that had retreated less than 20% from local historical highs, but more than 80 small cities had retreated more than 50%. In this sample, small cities in the western and northeastern regions had relatively smaller home price retreats, especially some economically underdeveloped areas in the northwest and southwest; the retreats were relatively larger in the eastern region, satellite cities of first- and second-tier cities, and some districts and counties under provincial capitals. The head of a regional real estate company told Economic Observer that these small cities with stable home prices have not been without price fluctuations, but over a longer cycle they have performed more steadily. Small-city home prices. Guo An's parents live in an "old, broken, small" home in Dacheng. Every Chinese New Year, when there are many people at home, there is not enough room to stay, and some family members have to stay in a hotel. The home is far from the central urban area, making trips to the hospital and supermarket inconvenient, and his parents are unwilling to move to Beijing, so he wanted to buy them a better home. After asking classmates and friends back home, Guo An found that Dacheng home prices were higher than those in nearby Bazhou, Yongqing, and other places, and even on par with Gu'an. A local agent who recommended listings to Guo An said that Dacheng home prices began to rise rapidly in 2017, increasing by nearly 40% in one year, broke through 10,000 yuan in the second half of 2018, and peaked in the second half of 2019. At that time, home prices in the central urban area were generally 11,000 to 12,000 yuan per square meter, and some new and second-hand homes exceeded 13,000 yuan per square meter. After that, Dacheng home prices diverged. Prices in the central urban area fluctuated slightly but remained above 10,000 yuan, while prices in the county's peripheral areas fell noticeably. In the community where Guo An's parents live, the price per square meter once reached 10,000 yuan, then transactions became sluggish and the price fell all the way to the current 4,000 to 5,000 yuan. The agent said that since 2024, the local new-home market has been dominated by completed-housing projects, and developers are also mainly local companies. Even if some projects sell slowly, developers are unwilling to cut prices. According to public information from the Dacheng County Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau, in October 2025, a completed-housing project announced an average selling price of 11,000 yuan per square meter, with a maximum price of 15,000 yuan per square meter and a minimum price of 7,000 yuan per square meter. Since 2026, no new housing projects have been publicly announced. Similar to Dacheng, housing demand in Jungar Banner mainly comes from local residents for self-use. There are not many outside developers, and even fewer investors. In Li Xiang's impression, local home prices have never fallen sharply. Tonghuashun data also shows this trend. From October 2019 to December 2020, the average second-hand home price in Jungar Banner was 7,000 to 8,000 yuan per square meter; from January 2021 to May 2023 it was 8,000 to 9,000 yuan per square meter; since then it has remained around 9,000 yuan per square meter. In Ejin Horo Banner, adjacent to Jungar Banner, home prices are similarly stable. Tonghuashun data shows that since 2019, its second-hand home prices have mostly been 7,000 to 7,900 yuan per square meter. Qian'an, a county-level city under Tangshan, relies heavily on its industrial economy. Tonghuashun data shows that in the second half of 2017, the average second-hand home price in Qian'an once exceeded 8,000 yuan per square meter, then began to decline and has remained around 6,000 yuan per square meter for many years. Horinger, a county under Hohhot, is the location of Mengniu Group and also an important computing power base for the "East Data, West Computing" project. Tonghuashun data shows that from 2019 to now, second-hand home prices in the county have mostly remained at 4,000 to 5,000 yuan per square meter, except in a few months when they exceeded 5,000 yuan per square meter. Divergence in rises and falls. Since 2015, expectations surrounding the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the construction of Beijing's municipal administrative center, and the construction of Beijing's new airport have pushed up the housing market around Beijing. Yanjiao, Dachang, Xianghe, Gu'an, Yongqing, and other places attracted a large number of out-of-town homebuyers, and the real estate market entered a period of rapid upward movement. From the end of 2015 to before purchase restrictions tightened in the first half of 2017, home prices in some districts and counties around Beijing rose by about three times. During the same period, Dacheng, located at the southernmost tip of Langfang, saw a smaller increase, from 6,000 yuan per square meter to about 8,000 yuan per square meter. The Dacheng agent said that due to location constraints, very few outside investors entered Dacheng's real estate market. 2017 was an important turning point for the market around Beijing. In March of that year, Beijing tightened purchase restrictions; in June, Langfang followed suit and included Langfang's urban area, the three northern counties, Gu'an, Yongqing, as well as Bazhou and Wen'an in the restriction scope. Dacheng was the only district or county in Langfang not included in purchase restrictions. After that, home prices around Beijing began to fall. Since the second half of 2023, second-hand home prices in most areas around Beijing have fallen below 10,000 yuan. As of now, second-hand home prices in places such as Gu'an and Yongqing have returned to levels before the rise began in 2015. Dacheng's second-hand home prices broke through the 10,000 yuan mark in the second half of 2018. Although they have undergone adjustment since 2023, prices in the central urban area still remain around 10,000 yuan. Kunshan is an important satellite city around Shanghai. Like most cities nationwide, Kunshan home prices began to accelerate upward from the end of 2015, rising to 13,000 yuan per square meter by 2016, while home prices in Huaqiao, adjacent to Shanghai, once approached 30,000 yuan per square meter. After Kunshan implemented purchase restrictions in September 2016, transaction volume declined, but prices did not pull back significantly. From 2017 to 2021, after consolidation, Kunshan home prices rose again, with the highest monthly average transaction price reaching 18,000 yuan per square meter. Since 2023, Kunshan's housing market has entered an adjustment period. A local real estate agent told Economic Observer that the largest correction in Kunshan's second-hand home prices was mainly in the Huaqiao area. There had been many investors earlier, and after the market adjusted, investors exited, with home prices retreating by more than 40%. Home prices in Kunshan's main urban area fluctuated relatively little, with a retreat of about 20%. Unlike the areas around Beijing and Shanghai, although small cities such as Jungar Banner, Horinger, Shishi, Qian'an, and Shouguang have mostly experienced increases since the end of 2015 and adjustments since 2022, compared with cities where investors gathered, these markets dominated by local demand saw overall home price retreats within 20%. There are also some small cities nationwide that have been less affected by this real estate cycle. This is especially true of some small cities in the northwest and southwest, where the economy is less developed and the population is smaller, real estate transactions are not active, and some small cities do not even have real estate agents. The head of the regional real estate company said that at present, housing supply in most small cities in the western region is becoming saturated. Residents do not lack housing; what they lack is good housing, and future market opportunities lie in product upgrading. Small cities differ. In Jungar Banner, Li Xiang signed up for the lottery for welfare housing mainly to trade up and reduce housing costs, not because he was eyeing price increases or arbitrage from price differences. He said local people do not lack housing. Jungar Banner does not have the location advantage of being adjacent to a first-tier city, and residents' income mainly depends on local industry and employment. The 2026 government work report of Jungar Banner disclosed that in 2025 the per capita disposable income of local urban residents was 66,000 yuan. Although it is less than that of Kunshan and other Yangtze River Delta districts and counties, it still exceeds many districts and counties. Horinger's computing power and dairy industry foundations are not bad, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents is less than 50,000 yuan. Local home prices are also relatively stable, but average second-hand home prices are clearly lower than in Jungar Banner. The head of the regional real estate company said that small cities with better industrial foundations offer residents more employment opportunities and higher incomes. In places such as Qian'an and Wu'an in Hebei, the wages of workers in coal, metallurgy, and other industries are far above the local average. Together with employees of administrative and public institutions and businesspeople, these workers form a relatively stable homebuying group. In this round of real estate adjustment, Kunshan's home price fluctuations were smaller than those in the three northern counties, partly because of its stronger economic strength. In 2025, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in Kunshan reached 79,000 yuan, among the highest nationwide. Dacheng's industrial structure differs from that of Kunshan, Jungar Banner, and Qian'an. Dacheng is the country's largest production base for thermal insulation and energy-saving materials, with rock wool and glass wool accounting for 40% of the national market, and rubber and plastic insulation materials accounting for about 60% of the national market. In 2025, the per capita disposable income of local urban residents was about 50,000 yuan. Guo An said that in some parts of Hebei, when young people marry, even if they live in rural areas, they still need to have a home in the county seat, which to some extent supports local housing demand. Rural residents account for about half of Dacheng's population, and the urban population is just over 200,000. The stability of home prices in some small western cities is related to sparse population and stable demand. If outsiders want to buy a home, they cannot find sales offices for new homes or agents for second-hand homes, and transactions mainly rely on introductions by acquaintances. Local residents also rarely regard buying a home as an investment channel. A real estate professional developing projects in a western county town told Economic Observer that these small county towns basically do not lack housing, and listings at different price levels are available. The price of a new home ranges from 70,000 or 80,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan, and there are also many debt-offset homes. When owners urgently need money, they are willing to sell for 30,000 to 40,000 yuan. Most of these small cities with relatively stable home prices have not experienced a concentrated influx of investors; Kunshan's main urban area, by contrast, relied on stronger economic strength to buffer the impact of investors moving in and out. The head of the regional real estate company said that investors often enter and exit quickly, amplifying market demand in a short period and pushing home prices up rapidly. Once supply increases or policies tighten, price increases are blocked, investors sell and leave, and home prices decline accordingly. Local self-use demand finds it difficult to absorb new supply and concentrated selling in the short term. In his view, in addition to supply and demand changes brought by investors, product differences are also an important factor affecting home price fluctuations. After better-quality new products come onto the market, the appeal of older housing declines, and "old, broken, small" homes are prone to depreciation.
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