In the current environment, the Hong Kong market surprisingly opened higher today, but as expected, it proceeded to fill the gap. Fortunately, the market stabilized after filling the gap, with the Hang Seng Index closing up a slight 0.15%. The shifts in Trump's stance are indeed perplexing. Yesterday, Trump was threatening that if no agreement is reached, he would "completely destroy all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island." Today brought a different narrative. According to reports from US officials on March 30 local time, President Trump has indicated to aides his willingness to end military actions against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. This demonstrates a complete lack of coherence in his statements, making it difficult to discern what is true. However, judging from Trump's past words and actions, one phrase seems particularly apt: you can say he is bad, but you cannot say he is incompetent. The alternation between threats of attack and talk of cessation ultimately amounts to smokescreens, while also aiming to stabilize the stock market and prevent a sharp decline. Having been misled too many times, investors remain cautious. It is important to note that thousands of soldiers from the US Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division have begun arriving in the Middle East. These paratroopers, stationed at Fort Bragg in North Carolina, will join the thousands of Navy, Marine Corps, and special operations forces previously deployed to the region. Last weekend, approximately 2,500 Marines arrived in the Middle East. Such intensive military deployments are unlikely to be merely for show; they are intended for use. The specific nature of any potential engagement remains unclear, with widespread speculation focusing on seizing Kharg Island, though the real objective might be to secure enriched uranium or conduct decapitation strikes. Achieving any single objective could be claimed as a major victory. Failing that, even a mere incursion into Iranian territory could be declared a win. The market fears such uncertainty the most, as the lack of a clear outlook means that speculation in any direction is fraught with unpredictability. For instance, those betting on conflict might expect strength in the oil and gas sector, but reality shows otherwise—oil and gas stocks have not risen and have actually fallen over the past two days, such as CNOOC (00883). Conversely, those betting on a ceasefire might anticipate gains in technology and aviation sectors, yet these segments have also performed poorly. Consequently, capital finds itself in a difficult position, facing potential setbacks regardless of the direction. Against this backdrop, funds have shifted towards sectors insulated from the conflict, with banking stocks being the primary choice. Their fundamentals are relatively solid. Over the past year, despite a complex and volatile market environment, all six major state-owned banks achieved positive growth in both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders. In terms of revenue, the world's largest bank, ICBC (01398), maintained its leading position with revenue of 838.27 billion yuan. CCB (00939), ABC (01288), and Bank of China (03988) formed the second tier with revenues of 761.049 billion yuan, 725.306 billion yuan, and 658.31 billion yuan, respectively. Regarding net profit, ICBC again topped the list with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 368.562 billion yuan. CCB followed closely with 338.906 billion yuan, securing the second spot. Both ABC and Bank of China remained firmly in the "200-billion-yuan club." In terms of growth rate, Bank of China led the six major banks with a year-on-year revenue increase of 4.48%, becoming the pacesetter in revenue growth. ABC achieved the highest net profit growth rate among the six, at 3.18% year-on-year. Dividends are also attractive. In 2025, the total dividends distributed by the six major banks exceeded 420 billion yuan. ICBC is expected to distribute 110.593 billion yuan for the full year, while CCB will distribute 101.684 billion yuan. Dividends for ABC, Bank of China, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank are projected at 87.321 billion yuan, 72.917 billion yuan, 28.692 billion yuan, and 26.217 billion yuan, respectively. The dividend payout ratios for all six major banks remained stable at 30% or above of their net profits attributable to shareholders. In a year where the majority of Hong Kong-listed stocks are still struggling, banking stocks stand out as a bright spot, attracting concentrated capital inflows. ICBC (01398), Bank of China (03988), and CCB (00939) have all reached new historical highs. Following banking stocks, pharmaceutical stocks also gained attention. The Huaxia Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare ETF (520510) rose over 2% intraday. On the evening of March 30, three CXO companies—Joinn Laboratories (06127), Tigermed (03347), and Asymchem (06821)—released their 2025 annual reports. Among them, Joinn Laboratories reported a staggering 300% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, while Tigermed's net profit surged over 119%. However, Joinn Laboratories (06127) experienced a pullback after an initial surge, as the significant profit growth was largely attributed to price increases in "laboratory monkeys," a factor unlikely to be sustainable. Its actual revenue of 1.658 billion yuan fell by 17.87% year-on-year, indicating underlying fundamental weaknesses. Conversely, Asymchem (06821) reported 2025 revenue of 6.833 billion yuan, up 3.48% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 888 million yuan, a jump of 119.15%. The company's emerging businesses showed high growth and毛利率, coupled with cost reduction and efficiency improvements, leading to a surge of over 13% today. Other stocks with strong results, such as Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692) and WuXi Biologics (02269), also rose over 6%. Dividend-paying stocks are another focus for the market. Midea Group (00300) reported 2025 revenue of 458.5 billion yuan, a 12.1% year-on-year increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.95 billion yuan, up 14%. Notably, the company plans to use 100% of its net profit attributable to shareholders for shareholder returns in 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 38 yuan per 10 shares. The total cash dividend amounts to 28.6 billion yuan. Including the interim dividend of 5 yuan per 10 shares in 2025, the full-year dividend per 10 shares reaches 43 yuan, with total annual cash dividends amounting to 32.4 billion yuan. Statistics show that Midea Group has distributed cumulative dividends exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan over the past decade. Strong dividends attract capital, and the stock rose nearly 7% today. Another generous dividend payer is Bank of China (Hong Kong) (02388): the company disclosed that its board has原则上 approved a shareholder return framework for 2026-2028,主要内容包括 flexibly adopting measures within the established dividend payout range (40% to 60%) to orderly increase the shareholder payout ratio, share buybacks, and special dividends to enhance shareholder returns, aiming for implementation during the interim results announcement this year. The stock rose nearly 6%. Motorcycle stocks gained traction. Recently, Zhangxue Motorcycles achieved double victories in the SSP middleweight category at the World Superbike Championship (WSBK) Portuguese round. The popular model ZX500RR is in high demand, with current orders facing a waiting period until the end of May for delivery. Deliveries for the ZX8200R are scheduled for June to July. Industry-wide price increases are also a刺激因素. Due to multiple factors including rising raw material costs, the expiration of factory rebate policies, and the conclusion of promotional activities, mainstream domestic electric two-wheeler brands such as Ninebot, Yadea, Tailin, and Aima plan to officially raise prices for most models starting next month. Beyond material cost increases, the new national standard for electric bicycles has raised safety requirements and mandated standard Beidou positioning, contributing to higher costs. Furthermore, the new national standard strictly limits the proportion of plastic used. Newly launched electric bicycles are now uniformly equipped with metal外壳, naturally implying higher costs. The "strong start" promotions in the first quarter are gradually concluding, and with discount promotions ending by late March,终端 prices are rebounding. Beneficiary stock Yadea (01585) also has promising overseas prospects, with current overseas revenue below 10%. Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are becoming key growth engines for the adoption of electric scooters and bicycles. In early 2026, it officially opened a $100 million smart manufacturing plant in Bac Ninh, Vietnam. The stock rose nearly 4% today.
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