Spot gold staged a dramatic "deep V-shaped reversal" on September 17, surging from a session low of $4,257.26 per ounce to an intraday peak of $4,381.16, before settling up 1.82% at $4,341.11 per ounce. This rally was fueled by a combination of a softer US dollar, consecutive declines in oil prices, and falling Treasury yields, as investors digested the latest Fed rate hike while reassessing gold's appeal as a safe-haven and hedging asset. Although short-term volatility remains unavoidable, medium-to-long-term supportive factors are quietly building up.
During early Asian trading on Friday, September 18, spot gold is fluctuating within a narrow range, currently trading near the $4,350 per ounce level. Overall, gold is in a corrective recovery phase following the digestion of rate hike headwinds, with intense bullish and bearish tug-of-war. The recommended approach leans toward buying on pullbacks, while maintaining strict position sizing and stop-loss discipline. Key levels to watch are resistance at $4,402 and $4,434, with support at $4,340 and $4,310.
For the morning session, an aggressive short entry can be considered at $4,413/4,405, while a more conservative short sits at $4,424/4,430, with a 10-dollar stop loss in each case and an initial target of $4,380, holding for further downside breaks. Meanwhile, aggressive longs can be initiated at $4,338/4,345, with conservative entries at $4,315/4,310, also with a 10-dollar stop loss, targeting $4,424 and holding for further upside momentum. The pivotal level for gold is set at $4,340 per ounce. Please note that these views are for reference only; extreme market conditions require rigorous risk management.
WTI crude oil declined for a second consecutive session this week, touching a one-week low, primarily due to waning concerns over supply disruptions. Reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is providing additional crude cargoes via Oman, which has somewhat tempered the price premium driven by heightened Middle East tensions. On September 17, WTI fell 1.01% to close at $100.9 per barrel, briefly breaching the $100 mark during the session. In early Asian trading on September 18, the commodity gapped down more than 4% to hover around $96.50 per barrel.
Saudi Arabia is conducting ship-to-ship transfers off the Port of Sohar in Oman to supply more crude cargoes to Asian refiners, and plans to restore about half of the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, alleviating market concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Additionally, former President Trump has confirmed attendance at the UN General Assembly and meetings with Gulf state leaders, with an Iranian delegation permitted to attend. Trump noted that he is approaching a "major decision" on whether to escalate strikes against Iran. The Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike has pushed the dollar off its highs, but the greenback still exerts some pressure on oil prices.
In summary, crude oil is in a pullback phase as supply concerns ease, yet geopolitical risks remain far from fully resolved. The suggested strategy is to lean toward selling into rallies, with strict position management and stop-losses. Key resistance levels are at $97.8 and $99.5, while support is found at $95.0 and $93.0. For the morning session, aggressive traders can initiate shorts at $97.5±0.2, while conservative traders may look at $99.3±0.2, with a 0.8-point stop loss and a target of $94.0, holding for further declines. Conversely, aggressive longs can be placed at $93.2±0.2, with conservative entries at $91.5±0.2, also with a 0.8-point stop loss, targeting $95.5 and holding for upside. The pivotal level for WTI is $100.5 per barrel. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice; investors act at their own risk.
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