Early on the 25th, the Nasdaq and S&P 500, which had been falling, suddenly surged in a straight line! By the close, the three major U.S. stock indexes ended mixed, with the Dow down 0.31%, the S&P 500 down 0.02%, and the Nasdaq up 0.01%.
On the news front, positive signals came from the Strait of Hormuz. Media outlets, citing "two Iranian sources, two regional officials, and two Western diplomats," reported that U.S. and Iranian representatives are discussing a plan to gradually end the war, under which Iran would need to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. would need to lift its economic blockade on Iran. Regional sources said that, because lifting the blockade has become a more urgent task, Iran is willing to move its demand for transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz out of the main agreement and into an annex. The source also noted that any such arrangement would be temporary and would not represent Iran formally abandoning its established position. However, beyond the content mentioned above, the report focused more on the "huge obstacles" facing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran — neither side is willing to give up its leverage first, and there is a lack of mutual trust needed to reach an agreement.
Affected by this, international oil prices fluctuated sharply during the session. Ultimately, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.66%, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.58%.
There are two other pieces of news in the crude oil market worth watching. First, France plans to convene the Group of Seven to discuss releasing strategic petroleum reserves. French President Emmanuel Macron said in a joint interview with two French television stations on the evening of the 24th that France plans to convene a meeting of G7 member states to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves to stabilize international oil prices. Second, Saudi Arabia's July oil export value fell to a new low. Data released by Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics on the 24th showed that both Saudi Arabia's oil export value and total export value continued to decline in July, falling to their lowest levels since May 2025 and June 2021, respectively. Russia's news agency, citing the data, reported that Saudi Arabia's July oil export value was 59.888 billion riyals (about $15.9 billion), down 12.8% from the same period last year and the lowest since May 2025. Saudi Arabia's total merchandise export value in July was 84.379 billion riyals ($22.4 billion), down 17.2% year on year and the lowest since June 2021. Oil exports as a share of Saudi Arabia's total exports fell from 71.7% in June to 71% in July.
Three Fed Officials Turn Hawkish
On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson made clear that if the economy evolves as expected, modest further policy tightening may be necessary. New York Fed President John Williams said the same day that another rate hike before the end of the year is "reasonable" and that more effort is still needed to bring down inflation. Their remarks were highly consistent with the Fed's decision tone last week: the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously agreed at its last meeting to raise rates by 25 basis points and released projections showing at least one more hike this year. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also stressed the same day that, in an environment where inflation has been elevated for a long time, a succession of external shocks will significantly increase the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. Influenced by these officials' remarks and recent strong economic data, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has risen from 53% at the end of last week to about 69% currently. The Fed's next policy meeting ends on October 28.
Houthis Claim Another Attack on Saudi Capital
According to CCTV News, on the evening of September 24 local time, Yemen's Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree released a video statement saying that the Houthis used multiple ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones to attack a "sensitive target" in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, as well as Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea coastal city of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia said earlier that it intercepted six ballistic missiles launched by the Houthis toward Taif and Yanbu in the south, but it did not confirm the attack on Riyadh, nor did it confirm casualties or property losses in Taif and Yanbu. Earlier the same day, Saree also released a video statement saying that the Houthis used dozens of ballistic missiles and drones to launch a large-scale attack on multiple military targets in the Jazan region in southwestern Saudi Arabia.
Analysts: Short-Term Pressure and Medium- to Long-Term Bullish Logic Coexist for Gold
On the last trading day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the precious metals market came under overall pressure and moved lower. Shen Yinquan, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Futures, believes that the recent weak performance of precious metals is mainly dragged down by rising expectations of a Fed rate hike. After the Fed's September policy meeting released hawkish signals, rate hike expectations heated up, and the latest U.S. economic data came in stronger than expected, pushing expectations even higher, while Fed officials continued to make hawkish remarks. A report released by S&P Global showed that U.S. September PMI data strengthened across the board. The services PMI rose to 58.7, far above the expected 55.8 and a new high since 2021; the manufacturing PMI rose to 57.0, a new high since 2022; and the composite PMI rose to 58.4, refreshing its peak since July 2021. The data show that the internal momentum of the U.S. economy remains strong. On the geopolitical front, U.S.-Iran negotiations have reached a stalemate. According to Xinhua News Agency, during the general debate of the United Nations General Assembly, Iran held talks with the U.S. side through mediators and conveyed relevant conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran took a tough stance, saying it "will not kneel and surrender," while the U.S. Secretary of State said Trump has multiple options, including military options. "Market concerns about crude oil supply have once again pushed oil prices higher, inflation pressure has risen marginally, October rate hike expectations have rapidly heated up, U.S. Treasury yields have risen sharply, and real interest rates have moved up in tandem. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold is highly negatively correlated with real interest rates. Rising rates directly increase the holding cost of gold, clearly suppressing precious metals valuations and driving a periodic pullback in gold prices," Shen Yinquan said. Looking ahead, some analysts believe that the logic of short-term pressure and medium- to long-term bullishness for gold coexist. Zhan Dapeng, director of non-ferrous metals research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that rising energy costs have currently become the main driver of higher inflation, but oil prices are unlikely to keep rising. If energy prices are effectively controlled later, the Fed's willingness to raise rates continuously will decline, so the probability of a sustained weakening in gold prices is relatively low. Shen Yinquan also believes that before Fed rate hike expectations cool substantially, the room for a gold price rebound is limited, and prices will most likely remain range-bound. The start of a trending market still requires signals such as a pullback in rate hike expectations, further materialization of fiscal risks, and a sustained return of allocation funds. "In the medium to long term, the foundation for higher gold prices has not been shaken," she said. She noted that the repricing of dollar credit continues to drive the global de-dollarization process, central bank gold purchase demand is sustainable, China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 22 consecutive months, and the trend toward reserve diversification is clear. Combined with repeated geopolitical disruptions, ETF funds flowing back in, and solid bottom support for gold prices, the medium- to long-term price center still has room to rise.
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