Gold prices dipped during Monday's European trading session, with spot gold last quoted at $4,405.88 per ounce, marking a 0.39% decline. The precious metal opened at $4,423.86, reached a high of $4,429.24, and touched a low of $4,389.52 for the session.
The confrontation between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz has escalated sharply. Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer, prompting American forces to strike three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation. Commercial shipping has been weaponized as an economic pressure tool by both sides, with transit volumes through the strait falling to multi-month lows.
Oil prices have found support from supply disruption concerns, while gold has come under pressure due to robust employment data and rising expectations of interest rate hikes. This series of events is reshaping the global energy market landscape and continues to influence inflation and monetary policy trajectories.
Missile Attacks on Vessels: Conflict Shifts from Striking Facilities to Disrupting Shipping
Military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz intensified dramatically over the weekend. The U.S. Central Command stated on September 5 that an American aircraft carrier and a missile destroyer were targeted by ballistic missiles fired by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while patrolling regional waters. The U.S. warships successfully evaded the attack without sustaining casualties.
American officials indicated that the Revolutionary Guard had been launching ballistic missiles at U.S. forces throughout the conflict, but this direct assault on naval vessels represents a significant escalation. In retaliation, the U.S. military struck three Iranian oil tankers—one near Kharg Island off southern Iran, another near Jask port, and an empty tanker in the Gulf of Oman.
The tanker near Kharg Island was hit by four American missiles, the vessel near Jask was rendered "permanently incapable of navigation," and the empty tanker in the Gulf of Oman was "completely destroyed" after its crew abandoned ship. Maritime intelligence firm Marisks confirmed the three targeted tankers were the Downy, Stark I, and Kylo.
Iran responded swiftly. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on the same day that it had attacked three tankers sailing on "unauthorized routes" in the Strait of Hormuz and struck three vessels with U.S. connections in other waters. The Guard also claimed responsibility for launching multiple ballistic missiles at the American carrier and destroyer, asserting both warships were forced to withdraw from the conflict zone after sustaining damage.
Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei stated on September 6 that Tehran would announce a "no-go zone" in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, extending from the U.S. naval blockade line into portions of the Persian Gulf. Marisks noted in its analysis that the September 5 attacks mark a "major escalation in maritime conflict," with commercial tankers deliberately used as instruments of mutual economic pressure, significantly blurring the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping.
Shipping Lanes Disrupted: Daily Transit Volumes Plummet to Lowest Levels Since May
As conflict intensity rises, conditions for transiting the Strait of Hormuz continue to deteriorate. Data from vessel tracking firm Kpler shows that over the past ten days, an average of only 10 vessels carrying crude oil traversed the strait daily—the lowest level since May. Specifically, 15 cargo ships passed through on September 4, declining to 13 on September 5, and further dropping to 10 on September 6.
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright acknowledged on September 6 that current oil shipping volumes through the strait have fallen below pre-military-action levels. American blockade operations continue to intensify, with U.S. Central Command reporting that as of last week, U.S. forces had forced 87 merchant vessels to alter course, disabled three ships, and boarded two for inspections.
U.S. military escorts now guide several vessels through the strait daily, typically during nighttime crossings with transponders turned off to avoid tracking. In late August, Navy SEAL teams, supported by other units, successfully cleared mines from the waterway. Prior to the conflict, approximately one-fifth of global oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's control over the strait has been a crucial bargaining chip in the war and negotiations. U.S. blockades have impeded Iran's oil exports for weeks, while Gulf state exports continue to pass through, intensifying pressure on Tehran. International oil prices extended their rally while gold retreated under pressure, with markets now focused on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.
Oil Prices Extend Gains While Gold Faces Headwinds
International oil prices extended weekend gains on Monday. WTI crude futures briefly rose nearly 1% to $92.57 per barrel before trading around $91.90, up approximately 0.4%. Supply disruption concerns continue to underpin crude prices.
ANZ Bank analysts suggest that prolonged U.S.-Iranian standoff with carefully calibrated military actions represents the most likely scenario, projecting exports will remain constrained for the remainder of 2026, with recovery to pre-war levels not expected until late Q1 or early Q2 2027.
Meanwhile, spot gold fluctuated lower, briefly breaching the $4,400 level to hit an intraday low near $4,398.57, before trading around $4,410. Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report showed a significant acceleration in August employment growth, with unemployment holding steady at 4.1%, indicating an improving labor market.
Combined with weekend attacks on oil tankers pushing crude prices higher, expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year have strengthened, weighing on gold. CME FedWatch data shows traders now price in approximately 58% to 59.6% probability of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, with odds of at least 25 basis points of tightening this year rising to around 86%.
OPEC+ announced at its Sunday meeting that it would maintain October production policy unchanged, stating no output adjustments would be made until new quotas are agreed. Analysts note that Iran's war-related disruption of Strait of Hormuz oil exports has severely weakened the producers' alliance's actual influence over prices, as paper-based output changes struggle to offset real supply cuts stemming from battlefield blockades.
The U.S.-Iran contest over the Strait of Hormuz has escalated from missile exchanges to direct strikes on each other's oil tankers, with commercial shipping weaponized as an economic pressure tool. The U.S. responds to attacks by crippling Iran's oil transport capabilities while maintaining blockades and escort operations; Iran continues attacking unauthorized vessels and expanding restricted zones.
This situation has reduced strait transit volumes to multi-month lows, significantly raising global oil supply risks and supporting crude prices. Simultaneously, strong U.S. employment data alongside higher oil prices have strengthened Fed rate hike expectations, pressuring gold. OPEC+ maintaining output levels further underscores geopolitical conflict's dominance over actual supply dynamics. Future conflict intensity and strait transit recovery progress will continue to drive energy markets and global inflation expectations.
Spot gold currently trades lower at $4,405.88 per ounce, down 0.39%, with support seen around $4,405 or $4,390/$4,375, while resistance lies near $4,465 or $4,500.
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