Fed Watch: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall As Powell Throws Water on 75-Basis-Point Increases

Seeking Alpha2022-05-05

Here's what to know about Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision:U.S. Treasury yields fall as PowellspeaksU.S. Treasury-bond yields are mostly falling following the Federal Reserve's move ...

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Longbean
2022-05-05
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The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 2.92% shortly before 3 p.m. ET, down five basis points from where it stood just prior to the Fed's 2 p.m. ET announcement. Similarly, the two-year yield fell to 2.64% as of just before 3 p.m., down from 2.78% before the news.Click here for all of the market's reaction.Powell Press Conference: Inflation is 'much too high'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday in hisnews conferencefollowing the Federal Open Market Committee's 0.50-point rate hike that the U.S. labor market \"is extremely tight and inflation is much too high.\"Fed announces biggest one-time rate hike since 2000The Federal Reserve raised its key policy rates byhalf a percentage point, the first 50-basis-point increase in more than 20 years. This followed a 25-basis-point increase announced at its previous meeting in March, as the central bank looks tamp down inflation.Too soon for Powell to get dovish“The bottom line, we think, is that continuing to hike by 50bp per meeting as both the housing market and inflation head rapidly south would be a serious test for the Fed,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ian Shepherdson wrote. “We expect a signal at the June meeting to suggest that the pace of hikes will slow in the second half. But Mr. Powell is very unlikely to suggest anything on those lines today; it’s just too soon.”He will also be watching for any mention of the housing market.“Housing punches far above its weight as a driver of market and media views of the state of the economy, but the Fed’s reaction to the coming weakening is unclear.”Financial conditions could mean peak Fed fear“These financial conditions have tightened in the US and abroad, doing some of the Fed’s work for it already,” eToro strategist Ben Laidler said. “Equity markets are in ‘correction’ territory, real yields are positive, 30-yr mortgage rates over 5%. Whilst inflation expectations tentatively easing from high levels above the Fed 2% target, and inflation rates topping out at near 8.5%. We think we are close to peak inflation rates and peak fear of the Fed, though we have clearly been surprised so far!”Market braced for a half-point hikeGoing into the Fed announcement, markets had fully priced in a 50-basis-point boost in the fed funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1%. The rate hike \"will occur as the Fed simultaneously embarks on the long-awaited reduction in its balance sheet, which we think will shrink by nearly $3T through the end of 2024, from $8.93T today.\" wrote RSM chief U.S. economist Joseph Brusuelas in a note.Labor market remains tightThe latestJOLTs survey for March showed opening rising to an unexpected all-time high of 11.55M, while the quits rate also rose. Powell has been hoping for some slack in the labor market, which would give the FOMC some more maneuverability in the pace of tightening.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9068390070,"gmtCreate":1651714890556,"gmtModify":1676534955370,"author":{"id":"4101523587375210","authorId":"4101523587375210","name":"Longbean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5094e621295543a14717b7f2cb3386d","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068390070","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9068904540,"gmtCreate":1651708580159,"gmtModify":1676534952454,"author":{"id":"4102837759709900","authorId":"4102837759709900","name":"Mindthink","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/89b965229f7209196369426d161728ee","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068904540","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9068900053,"gmtCreate":1651708133412,"gmtModify":1676534952290,"author":{"id":"3568502293522979","authorId":"3568502293522979","name":"huathuatlai","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Why","listText":"Why","text":"Why","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068900053","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9068077671,"gmtCreate":1651708104455,"gmtModify":1676534952271,"author":{"id":"3582000520700468","authorId":"3582000520700468","name":"Worpeng2002","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068077671","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133382220","pubTimestamp":1651706080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133382220?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-05 07:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Watch: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall As Powell Throws Water on 75-Basis-Point Increases","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133382220","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Here's what to know about Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision:U.S. Treasury yields fa","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Here&#39;s what to know about Wednesday&#39;s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision:</p><p><b>U.S. Treasury yields fall as Powell</b><b>speaks</b></p><p>U.S. Treasury-bond yields are mostly falling following the Federal Reserve&#39;s move to raise short-term rates by 50 basis points, coupled with Fed chief Jerome Powell&#39;s remarks ruling out 75-basis-point hikes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 2.92% shortly before 3 p.m. ET, down five basis points from where it stood just prior to the Fed&#39;s 2 p.m. ET announcement. Similarly, the two-year yield fell to 2.64% as of just before 3 p.m., down from 2.78% before the news.Click here for all of the market&#39;s reaction.</p><p><b>Powell Press Conference: Inflation is &#39;much too high&#39;</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday in hisnews conferencefollowing the Federal Open Market Committee&#39;s 0.50-point rate hike that the U.S. labor market &#34;is extremely tight and inflation is much too high.&#34;</p><p><b>Fed announces biggest one-time rate hike since 2000</b></p><p>The Federal Reserve raised its key policy rates byhalf a percentage point, the first 50-basis-point increase in more than 20 years. This followed a 25-basis-point increase announced at its previous meeting in March, as the central bank looks tamp down inflation.</p><p><b>Too soon for Powell to get dovish</b></p><p>“The bottom line, we think, is that continuing to hike by 50bp per meeting as both the housing market and inflation head rapidly south would be a serious test for the Fed,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ian Shepherdson wrote. “We expect a signal at the June meeting to suggest that the pace of hikes will slow in the second half. But Mr. Powell is very unlikely to suggest anything on those lines today; it’s just too soon.”</p><p>He will also be watching for any mention of the housing market.</p><p>“Housing punches far above its weight as a driver of market and media views of the state of the economy, but the Fed’s reaction to the coming weakening is unclear.”</p><p><b>Financial conditions could mean peak Fed fear</b></p><p>“These financial conditions have tightened in the US and abroad, doing some of the Fed’s work for it already,” eToro strategist Ben Laidler said. “Equity markets are in ‘correction’ territory, real yields are positive, 30-yr mortgage rates over 5%. Whilst inflation expectations tentatively easing from high levels above the Fed 2% target, and inflation rates topping out at near 8.5%. We think we are close to peak inflation rates and peak fear of the Fed, though we have clearly been surprised so far!”</p><p><b>Market braced for a half-point hike</b></p><p>Going into the Fed announcement, markets had fully priced in a 50-basis-point boost in the fed funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1%. The rate hike &#34;will occur as the Fed simultaneously embarks on the long-awaited reduction in its balance sheet, which we think will shrink by nearly $3T through the end of 2024, from $8.93T today.&#34; wrote RSM chief U.S. economist Joseph Brusuelas in a note.</p><p><b>Labor market remains tight</b></p><p>The latestJOLTs survey for March showed opening rising to an unexpected all-time high of 11.55M, while the quits rate also rose. Powell has been hoping for some slack in the labor market, which would give the FOMC some more maneuverability in the pace of tightening.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Watch: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall As Powell Throws Water on 75-Basis-Point Increases</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Watch: U.S. Treasury Yields Fall As Powell Throws Water on 75-Basis-Point Increases\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-05 07:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3831804-fed-watch-first-50-basis-half-point-hike-in-22-years-priced-in><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here's what to know about Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision:U.S. Treasury yields fall as PowellspeaksU.S. Treasury-bond yields are mostly falling following the Federal Reserve's move ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3831804-fed-watch-first-50-basis-half-point-hike-in-22-years-priced-in\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3831804-fed-watch-first-50-basis-half-point-hike-in-22-years-priced-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133382220","content_text":"Here's what to know about Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest-rate decision:U.S. Treasury yields fall as PowellspeaksU.S. Treasury-bond yields are mostly falling following the Federal Reserve's move to raise short-term rates by 50 basis points, coupled with Fed chief Jerome Powell's remarks ruling out 75-basis-point hikes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield eased to 2.92% shortly before 3 p.m. ET, down five basis points from where it stood just prior to the Fed's 2 p.m. ET announcement. Similarly, the two-year yield fell to 2.64% as of just before 3 p.m., down from 2.78% before the news.Click here for all of the market's reaction.Powell Press Conference: Inflation is 'much too high'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday in hisnews conferencefollowing the Federal Open Market Committee's 0.50-point rate hike that the U.S. labor market \"is extremely tight and inflation is much too high.\"Fed announces biggest one-time rate hike since 2000The Federal Reserve raised its key policy rates byhalf a percentage point, the first 50-basis-point increase in more than 20 years. This followed a 25-basis-point increase announced at its previous meeting in March, as the central bank looks tamp down inflation.Too soon for Powell to get dovish“The bottom line, we think, is that continuing to hike by 50bp per meeting as both the housing market and inflation head rapidly south would be a serious test for the Fed,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ian Shepherdson wrote. “We expect a signal at the June meeting to suggest that the pace of hikes will slow in the second half. But Mr. Powell is very unlikely to suggest anything on those lines today; it’s just too soon.”He will also be watching for any mention of the housing market.“Housing punches far above its weight as a driver of market and media views of the state of the economy, but the Fed’s reaction to the coming weakening is unclear.”Financial conditions could mean peak Fed fear“These financial conditions have tightened in the US and abroad, doing some of the Fed’s work for it already,” eToro strategist Ben Laidler said. “Equity markets are in ‘correction’ territory, real yields are positive, 30-yr mortgage rates over 5%. Whilst inflation expectations tentatively easing from high levels above the Fed 2% target, and inflation rates topping out at near 8.5%. We think we are close to peak inflation rates and peak fear of the Fed, though we have clearly been surprised so far!”Market braced for a half-point hikeGoing into the Fed announcement, markets had fully priced in a 50-basis-point boost in the fed funds rate to a range of 0.75%-1%. The rate hike \"will occur as the Fed simultaneously embarks on the long-awaited reduction in its balance sheet, which we think will shrink by nearly $3T through the end of 2024, from $8.93T today.\" wrote RSM chief U.S. economist Joseph Brusuelas in a note.Labor market remains tightThe latestJOLTs survey for March showed opening rising to an unexpected all-time high of 11.55M, while the quits rate also rose. Powell has been hoping for some slack in the labor market, which would give the FOMC some more maneuverability in the pace of tightening.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9068075244,"gmtCreate":1651708003763,"gmtModify":1676534952235,"author":{"id":"3582802124387192","authorId":"3582802124387192","name":"Cw_88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73601b77e177185676fe499badeea2f7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068075244","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9068071936,"gmtCreate":1651707762000,"gmtModify":1676534952128,"author":{"id":"4099790386907850","authorId":"4099790386907850","name":"leeinvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b480051f839130f7274379fc24924fd2","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9068071936","repostId":1133382220,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":214,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.24.2","shortVersion":"4.24.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1133382220"}