JPMorgan has downgraded Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD.US) from "Overweight" to "Neutral," setting a price target of $35, citing relatively low growth and mid-tier overall return prospects.
Enterprise Products boasts an industry-leading integrated services suite, with its dominance across multiple commodity sectors supporting incremental growth opportunities. Its strong financial flexibility also differentiates it from peers. However, analyst Jeremy Tonet noted that the stock now presents a more balanced risk/reward profile, with other large-cap peers offering greater growth and total return potential.
In an industry where conflicts of interest often disadvantage limited partners, Enterprise Products stands out with its impeccable track record. Its balance sheet strength and financial flexibility remain competitive, but its EBITDA growth lags behind peers—with no growth expected this year. Tonet projects a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3% from 2024 to 2028.
Tonet highlighted that overcapacity across multiple hydrocarbon logistics value chains has negatively impacted optimization and organic growth opportunities due to intense competition—with some players willing to assume higher risks or accept lower returns. He added, "Ongoing propane dehydrogenation (PDH) challenges continue to cast doubt on normalized asset profitability, suggesting its relative valuation trails traditional midstream assets."
The analyst noted that market expectations for an accelerated stock buyback program next year appear fully priced in, but the actual scale of repurchases could disappoint. He also pointed out that institutional investors show less interest in master limited partnerships (MLPs) compared to C-corporations, stating, "This remains a headwind, and we see no near-term catalyst to meaningfully reverse this trend."
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