CMSC released a research report stating that in 2025, the consumer goods export chain faces multiple external disruptions, with structural divergence in sector performance. Motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) continue to show strong demand, while growth in other segments declines quarter by quarter. By 2026, tariff pressures ease, shipping costs remain low, and the Federal Reserve initiates a new rate-cutting cycle, stimulating U.S. consumption and investment activities. This is expected to drive a recovery in the U.S. real estate cycle, with the tool industry being the primary beneficiary. Secondary focus areas include sanitary pumps and domestic motorcycle exports.
**Key Takeaways:**
**2025 Review: External Disruptions and Structural Divergence** Companies in the consumer goods export chain operate across diverse industries with varying growth drivers, leading to stock-specific rather than sector-wide trends. Institutional holdings in export-oriented firms have generally been low this year, with revenue and net profit growth declining sequentially due to tariffs prompting overseas clients to stockpile early. However, certain segments like motorcycles and ATVs continue to outperform, supporting strong earnings and stock performance for related companies.
**2026 Outlook: Macroeconomic Improvement and Fundamental Recovery** In 2026, easing tariffs, low shipping costs, and the Fed’s rate cuts are expected to boost U.S. consumption and investment, aiding a rebound in the real estate cycle. The tool industry stands to benefit most, followed by sanitary pumps and domestic motorcycle exports.
**Tool Industry** Tool demand is closely tied to U.S. real estate activity, which is highly sensitive to mortgage rates. Currently suppressed by high rates, the housing cycle is at its lowest since 1999. Fed rate cuts will lower mortgage rates, reviving new and existing home sales and subsequently tool demand.
**Sanitary Pump Industry** Plastic sanitary pumps, used in jetted tubs, spas, and pools, see robust demand in Western markets. Their growth depends on both new construction (linked to real estate) and upgrades in existing properties. Lower interest rates are expected to drive demand recovery.
**Motorcycle Industry** The global motorcycle market remains resilient, with 2023 sales reaching 54.6 million units (+2.44% YoY) and a market size of $139.6 billion (+2.72% YoY). Competition is led by Japanese brands, followed by Indian manufacturers, while Chinese brands shift toward high-value segments like large-displacement and electric models, gaining traction in Western markets.
**Top Picks:** - **巨星科技 (Hand Tools + Power Tools)** - **泉峰控股 (Power Tools + Garden Tools)**
**Watchlist:** - **凌霄泵业** - **春风动力 (Small & Mid-Cap)** - **隆鑫通用 (Automotive)** - **涛涛车业 (Automotive & Appliances)**
**Risks:** Potential economic downturns in the U.S./Europe, surging raw material costs, and tariff uncertainties.
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