1. What is the full-year performance outlook for China Merchants Bank? As of January 13, 2026, according to Chiyang Yongxu's quarterly performance forecast data: projected operating revenue is between 332.348 billion and 363.782 billion yuan; projected net profit is between 151.401 billion and 159.737 billion yuan. Market attention is focused on whether subsequent financial report data can exceed expectations, with Chiyang Yongxu's A-share quarterly performance forecasts providing investors a tool for performance assessment. 2. The latest sell-side view from Donghai Securities suggests: China Merchants Bank maintains a leading advantage during the industry's downturn, with key operational indicators demonstrating stability and high ROE and dividend yield. The pace of scale growth has moderated appropriately, balance sheet expansion is prudent, and the bank is optimizing the mix of retail, corporate, and financial investment businesses. Its net interest margin holds a solid absolute advantage, with downward pressure easing; it is anticipated that the repricing of high-cost medium- to long-term deposits maturing in 2026 will slow the margin's decline. Asset quality is managed cautiously, corporate real estate risks are considered sufficiently exposed, and the rate of increase in retail risks is expected to slow. After bottoming out, wealth management business is poised to reclaim its position as a core earnings driver. Regarding shareholder returns, the dividend payout ratio remains in the industry's top tier, supported by strong internal capital generation capability. Operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are forecast to grow steadily from 2025 to 2027, with current valuations at historically low levels, indicating investment value. Breaking down by business segment: 1) Scale Growth: China Merchants Bank's growth rate has moderated in line with the industry, with prudent balance sheet expansion and optimized business proportions seeking a balance between growth and risk. 2) NIM Advantage: The bank's net interest margin possesses a significant moat in absolute terms, and downward pressure is expected to ease in 2026. 3) Asset Quality: Corporate real estate risks are adequately exposed, the slope of rising retail risks is anticipated to flatten, and core revenue generation capability coupled with provision coverage provides ample room for write-offs and disposals. 4) Intermediate Business: After experiencing a trough, wealth management business is expected to return as a core profit contributor, with non-interest income elasticity far exceeding peers. 5) Shareholder Returns: The dividend payout ratio is firmly in the industry's leading echelon, internal capital generation is robust, and the dividend yield is competitively positioned in the market. Risk Warning: The data or cases presented herein are for reference only and should not be considered as a basis for future investment. Investing in stocks carries risks; market fluctuations, company performance, policy factors, and others can lead to stock price volatility. Please fully understand relevant information before investing and make investment decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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