David Wilson, Head of Commodities Strategy at BNP Paribas, stated that new geopolitical uncertainties are driving gold prices towards the $5,000 per ounce milestone faster than anticipated, which may compel institutions to revise their price forecasts upwards. However, as disruptions in the physical market ease, silver prices are highly likely to experience a swift sell-off after touching $100 per ounce.
"Gold has always performed well amidst uncertainty," Wilson told Bloomberg on Monday. "We witnessed this throughout last year—gold prices consistently set new highs over the entire year, and currently, various uncertainty factors are still at play."
He pointed out that two new key uncertainties are currently driving gold prices to fresh historical peaks: the first is the new tariff policies proposed by Trump targeting Greenland, and the second is market concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and its future interest rate path.
"I believe that all the factors currently supporting gold's rise are acting in concert, providing support for this precious metal," he said. "We predicted as early as last November that gold would eventually reach $5,000. That forecast seemed quite aggressive at the time; but now, with gold already above $4,700, the $5,000 target is within close reach."
When asked if this trend would prompt BNP Paribas to raise its 2026 gold price outlook, Wilson gave an affirmative response.
"Considering the current rally in gold prices, I believe we must begin assessing the possibility of revising our forecast upwards," he stated. "Previously, the $5,000 target seemed distant, but now we are just a step away. Clearly, in the current environment of persistent uncertainty, we need to set a higher target. I haven't finalized a specific figure yet, but gold breaking through $5,000 is certain; once it stabilizes above that level, there will undoubtedly be further upside potential."
Discussing silver's trajectory, Wilson believes that although silver prices continue to hit new highs, the physical supply shortages that drove its strong performance in 2025 are gradually easing, and this precious metal is already facing downward pressure.
"Compared to gold, the silver market is smaller and less liquid. Since mid-December last year, silver has embarked on a steep parabolic rally," he explained. "This rally had multiple catalysts: from late October to early November, news about India's silver抵押-related policies gradually gained traction in Western markets; subsequently, concerns emerged that China might restrict silver exports through a new licensing system; additionally, news of planned US tariffs on critical minerals drew market attention, with silver featuring prominently on the list. These factors collectively prompted large shipments of physical silver from Europe to the US, causing a sharp tightening of supply in the local physical market, which became the core driver of the price increase."
Just last week, the White House announced a temporary halt to imposing additional tariffs on critical minerals, which directly triggered a 7% correction in silver prices. Wilson noted that silver prices subsequently rose again, buoyed by safe-haven buying interest in gold.
"However, it is clear that the tightness in the physical silver market is easing, silver leasing rates have fallen significantly, and the impact of the various aforementioned bullish factors is gradually fading," he indicated. "Another point to note is that the silver market is inherently less liquid; once speculative funds begin taking profits, the price could experience a significant correction."
Nonetheless, Wilson still expects silver to reach the $100 per ounce level soon. "I believe this target is highly likely to be achieved faster," he said. "$100 might become a key level for speculative profit-taking, and silver prices could very well reverse course after hitting that mark."
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