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Protein Meal: (Hou Xueling, practicing qualification number: F3048706; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013637) On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell to a seven-and-a-half-week low, pressured by technical selling and fund liquidation of long positions. Previously dry weather in the Midwest accelerated the U.S. soybean harvest, which is expected to set a record high. U.S. soybean meal and soybean oil contracts both declined. Crop reports showed that the U.S. soybean harvest was 64% complete, above the five-year average of 65%. The U.S. soybean export inspection report showed that U.S. soybean inspections reached 2 million tons, above market expectations. The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 114,000 tons of soybeans to China and 261,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations. Domestically, protein meal fluctuated and pulled back. Lower import costs and capital outflow triggered a decline in futures prices. The spot market remained loose, with soybean meal inventories at high levels. Live hog prices were sluggish, and the market had concerns about forward demand, accelerating the decline in soybean meal spreads. Going forward, continue to monitor soybean costs, expectations for soybean meal demand, and capital flows.
Oils and Fats: (Hou Xueling, practicing qualification number: F3048706; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013637) On Monday, BMD palm oil fell, following the decline in surrounding markets. In addition, high inventories also weighed on the market. On Monday, Canadian rapeseed fell sharply due to farmer selling, trader profit-taking, and sell orders triggered after breaking below the $800 mark. U.S. soybean oil declined, following U.S. soybeans lower, as funds withdrew from the market. The market expects Malaysia to cancel its crude palm oil export tax to boost exports. Palm oil processing plants in West Kalimantan, Indonesia, reduced fresh fruit bunch processing in September because falling river water levels disrupted transportation. Domestically, oils and fats rose then pulled back, with palm oil stronger than the soybean oil market. Overseas prices fell again, putting pressure on the domestic market. Inventory pressure on the spot side remained relatively high, with soybean oil and palm oil inventories at elevated levels. Traders held prices firm, and basis levels rose slightly. Going forward, continue to monitor geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and end-user consumption.
Live Hogs: (Wang Na, practicing qualification number: F0243534; trading advisory qualification number: Z0001262) On Monday, live hog futures continued to decline, with futures prices hitting a new low again, and bearish sentiment in the market persisted. The main transaction price for live hogs in the Heilongjiang market was 9.64 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; the main transaction price in the Jilin market was 9.41 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; the main live hog slaughter price in Liaoning was 9.43 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from yesterday; the main transaction price in the Inner Mongolia market was 9.43 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from yesterday. Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the live hog market continued to increase weight, spot hog prices fell seasonally, hog prices came under pressure and adjusted, and the pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remained unchanged, suppressing upward movement in hog prices.
Eggs: (Kong Hailan, practicing qualification number: F3032578; trading advisory qualification number: Z0013544) On Monday, egg futures prices continued to decline, with the main 2612 contract closing down 0.9% at 3,302 yuan/500 kg. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that as of October 19, the national egg price was 3.68 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous period. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.5 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period, while Heishan brown-shell eggs were 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous period; in sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous period, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period. End-user demand was weak and supply was ample, so spot egg prices weakened again. In the short term, with ample supply and no highlights in demand, spot prices may continue to show a stable-to-weak performance. Related commodities continued to weaken, and sentiment may continue to weigh on egg futures prices.
Corn: (Wang Na, practicing qualification number: F0243534; trading advisory qualification number: Z0001262) On Monday, the main corn 2701 contract gapped lower, with futures prices basically erasing earlier gains, and prices continued to show pressure. Yesterday, some production areas in Northeast China saw rainy weather, which had a certain adverse impact on corn harvesting and trading, and Northeast corn prices mainly ran weak. North port corn prices also performed weakly. Despite weak prices, port arrivals remained relatively high. With the concentrated listing of Northeast corn, the market continued to perform weakly. North China corn stabilized at low levels and then moved within a narrow range, with purchase prices in some areas of Shandong fluctuating slightly up and down, and overall volatility narrowing; new-season corn is in its listing period, and combined with Northeast grain entering the region as a supplement, staged supply remained relatively ample, constraining price rebounds. The corn market in sales areas was generally stable, with narrow fluctuations in some regions. During the weekend, weather in production areas was poor, supply was concentrated, and quotes showed weakness, which is expected to affect sentiment in sales-area markets. Traders in sales areas were active in selling, downstream enterprises maintained inventories at relatively safe levels, generally purchased on demand, and had no intention of driving up purchase prices. Overall, corn harvesting in North China is basically complete, while corn in Northeast China is gradually being harvested and listed. After the pressure from concentrated supply in North China was realized, staged supply pressure eased somewhat. Corn futures and spot quotes first rose and then fell, and the pressure from the low point of new grain listing supply continues to affect the medium- to long-term direction of the market. Technically, since October 14, the January corn contract faced resistance after rebounding and came under pressure again, with prices showing oscillating and weak performance.
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