Investing in stocks requires reading Jin Qilin analyst reports for authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive insights to help you uncover potential thematic opportunities! 【Guide】Fund managers interpret 2026 investment opportunities in the resources sector.
The resources sector is collectively soaring! In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector surged nearly 90%, and in early 2026, gold and silver prices consecutively刷新ed historical records!
Is the resources sector still in a "super cycle"? Against the backdrop of deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, and continued gold purchases by major central banks, what fundamental changes have occurred in the global capital allocation logic for resource stocks? Which metals hold more investment value in the future? Six senior investment professionals, including Cui Lei, portfolio manager of the Southern Fund Non-ferrous Metals ETF, Ye Peipei, portfolio manager of the Zhong Ou Resource Selection Mixed Fund, Guo Yunsong, portfolio manager of the BOC Cycle Preferred Mixed and BOC Steady Strategy Mixed Funds, Chen Ziyang, portfolio manager of the Great Wall Cycle Preferred Fund, Huang Chao, portfolio manager of the Chuangjin Hexin Resource Theme Fund, and Sun Xiaoming, researcher at Nuode Fund, unanimously believe that the current resources sector is not entirely driven by short-term sentiment but is in the process of a "Super Cycle 2.0," with the price boom cycle far from over. These fund managers point out that against the backdrop of deglobalization, the strategic allocation value of resource commodities has become prominent. However, after a previous round of significant gains, subsequent opportunities are likely to be concentrated more in structural areas within the sector. Precious metals and minor metals have stronger certainty driven by both security logic and industrial demand, while the supply-demand dynamics of industrial metals like copper and aluminum need close monitoring. Investors should pay attention to品种轮动 and be wary of volatility risks. Cui Lei, Southern Fund: The current resources sector is not entirely driven by short-term sentiment but is in the process of a "Super Cycle 2.0." Ye Peipei, Zhong Ou Fund: The current period may represent the third resource commodity cycle in the past 60 years, with the price boom cycle far from over. Guo Yunsong, BOC Fund: We may currently be in the inflation improvement phase of a Byliner cycle,叠加ed with a major cycle of weak US dollar credibility, creating a more favorable stage for commodities. Subsequently,轮动 performance opportunities for various品种 under different catalysts may emerge. Chen Ziyang, Great Wall Fund: This大宗商品 cycle is not a simple inventory cycle but a cycle driven by multi-factor共振, characterized by long duration and large magnitude. Resource commodities are capturing a higher profit share within the industrial chain, and in equity investments, resource commodities should be elevated to a strategic allocation height. Huang Chao, Chuangjin Hexin Fund: The main risk facing the resources sector is that some sub-sectors and individual stocks have seen substantial gains over the past year, leading to a decline in the investment risk-reward ratio. Sun Xiaoming, Nuode Fund: The non-ferrous metals sector overall still exhibits strong cyclicality, with prices often experiencing significant fluctuations.
Currently in the Process of Super Cycle 2.0 China Fund News: How do you定位 the current cycle stage of the resources sector? Is it the mid-stage of the market-hotly-discussed "super cycle," or a peak driven by short-term sentiment? Cui Lei: The current resources sector is not entirely driven by short-term sentiment but is in the process of a "Super Cycle 2.0." Unlike the previous "Super Cycle 1.0" characterized by broad commodity price increases, non-ferrous metals have been almost the "sole standout" in the resources sector this round. The core drivers are deglobalization, supply disruptions, and structural changes led by AI and energy transition, rather than单纯的 global aggregate demand expansion. Despite significant sector gains in 2025, against the macro backdrop of Fed rate cuts, geopolitical博弈, and supply chain restructuring, the commodity control cycle is shifting towards supply constraints and strategic stockpiling, adding a "security premium" to commodity prices. Ye Peipei: The current period may represent the third resource commodity cycle in the past 60 years, with the price boom cycle far from over. There are three reasons: First, prices are still in the middle of the cycle, with considerable upside potential. After adjusting for inflation, real prices for commodities like copper have not yet returned to historical highs, are even lower than 2007 levels, and remain below peak levels. Second, old and new drivers are转换ing, with actual demand not yet fully发力. This cycle is driven by both old and new动能; the old动能 being infrastructure + real estate, and the new动能 being the energy revolution starting in 2020 and AI infrastructure beginning in 2023. New demand is gradually becoming a new growth engine. Third, current capital expenditure is at low levels,叠加ed with industrial rebuilding by various countries in the context of deglobalization. Industrial capital requires shorter payback periods to hedge risks. Current commodity prices have not yet stimulated a restart of new capital expenditure cycles, which will likely keep prices elevated for a longer duration. In summary, this cycle resembles the depression phase of the 1974 Kondratiev cycle.大宗商品 may exhibit a pattern of "rushing high, pulling back, and then rising again": currently, precious metals lead, industrial metals follow, and crude oil has considerable upside potential. While nominal prices for commodities like copper have hit new highs, real price levels after inflation adjustment remain relatively low. The前期上涨 was largely a monetary phenomenon; the second half of the cycle driven by全面 demand recovery may not have arrived yet. Guo Yunsong: The super cycle for precious metals this round is caused by the共振 of a major macro-level cycle and an industrial cycle. From a macro perspective, the core variable for gold's rise this round is a major narrative shift in the international credit system. Gold's currency属性 has been reactivated against the backdrop of the "great changes unseen in a century internationally." This major monetary cycle narrative shift can be described as "once in decades," making its subsequent evolution difficult to predict and often hard to reverse quickly. Silver, besides sharing some of gold's attributes, has also risen due to共振 with industrial trends. Overall, silver has ridden the precious metal trend of gold,叠加ed with real demand from new industries, leading to rapid price surges. Future judgments on silver prices need to consider not only financial attribute catalysts but also feedback from real demand and supply. Chen Ziyang: This round of resources sector performance is not偶然 but is the result of共振 from four core factors: the US debt cycle, structural demand pull, supply chain security demands, and supply-side constraints. It is essentially a Davis Double Play行情 of both earnings and valuation increases. The sector is currently in a revaluation cycle: on one hand, the overall PE level of the sector remains within an acceptable range; on the other hand, the high profitability of non-ferrous metals has strong sustainability, and the pull from new demand赋予s the sector significant growth attributes. Additionally, the valuation of domestic non-ferrous metal companies is far lower than their overseas peers, yet they are毫不逊色 in terms of growth and competitiveness, which is an important reason why the domestic resources sector deserves revaluation. Huang Chao: The current non-ferrous metals sector is in the mid-stage of an upward cycle, with prices of many products already having increased significantly. The rise in the non-ferrous metals sector this round should be considered a mid-term表现 of the "super cycle," but it also depends on the individual supply-demand situation of each commodity.品种 with oversupply won't see much profit, and price increases may be limited. From a global macro perspective, due to significant fiscal deficits in major countries, large and accelerating national debt, major power rivalry, and major currency超发, non-ferrous metals sector prices are likely to rise substantially. Sun Xiaoming: The resources sector is currently likely in the mid-stage of a super cycle, mainly for the following reasons: First, the previous major non-ferrous metals cycle dates back twenty years, a relatively long interval; second, capital expenditure for many non-ferrous metal品种 has been relatively insufficient over the past years, leading to明显的 supply constraints; third, the world has entered a stage of deglobalization, with countries placing unprecedented importance on resource security; fourth, global liquidity is generally ample, the US dollar is in a downward trend,叠加ed with a rate-cutting cycle, further strengthening the allocation value of resource assets.
Relatively Optimistic About Precious Metals and Minor Metals China Fund News: Differentiation within the resource commodities sector is明显, with different driving logics for industrial metals like copper, aluminum and precious metals like gold, silver. At this point in time, which type or types of metals are you more optimistic about for subsequent表现? What are their core drivers? Ye Peipei: In 2026, major risks domestically and internationally are controllable, external demand is stronger than internal demand, and domestic "anti-involution" PPI is expected to recover. Overseas, there are expectations of rate cuts and宽 fiscal policy, benefiting US dollar-denominated大宗商品. For the coming year, we are optimistic about two aspects: First, price increases for US dollar-denominated commodities brought by rate cuts, particularly prominent in gold, copper, and aluminum; Second,品种 with high exposure to external demand and high exposure to new动能 (energy storage, AI infrastructure, military industry, etc.) have favorable景气, with copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and tungsten being particularly突出. The five品种 we are most optimistic about in 2026 are: copper, gold, aluminum, lithium carbonate, and minor metals (e.g., tungsten). Chen Ziyang: Currently, I hold a阶段性 cautious attitude towards copper and aluminum, and am relatively optimistic about precious metals and minor metals. Regarding precious metals, the US is highly likely to continue rate cuts this year,叠加ed with continued gold purchases by central banks amid geopolitical turmoil, indicating gold's upward momentum persists. The current price is likely not the top. Gold stocks exhibit excellent free cash flow at current gold prices, have low valuations, and possess a basis for value revaluation. Silver faces unresolved short-term low inventory issues, and with a宽松 liquidity environment, price support is strong. As for minor metals, on one hand, this round of minor metal行情 is closely related to strategic reserves. They are widely used in technology and military fields, and against the backdrop of geopolitical turmoil, demand from governments and enterprises to increase strategic inventories is rising. On the other hand, minor metals are often used as additives in downstream products, with small usage volumes and low value占比, resulting in small resistance to price transmission and high market acceptance. From the supply side, there is no new capacity expected in the next two years, and they possess inherent scarcity, providing strong price support. Guo Yunsong: From the perspective of past traditional macro cycles, we may currently be in the inflation improvement phase of a Byliner cycle,同时叠加ed with a major cycle of weak US dollar credibility, creating a stage more favorable for commodities. Subsequently,轮动 performance opportunities for various品种 under different catalysts are more likely to occur. Macro-narratively, the催化 for gold and silver precious metals may be greater, while industrial supply-demand improvements may have a more direct impact on copper and aluminum later on. Huang Chao: The pricing of industrial metals like copper and aluminum侧重于 commodity attributes, where supply-demand relationships have a significant impact on prices. Some industrial metals also have financial attributes. Under tight supply conditions, if financial conditions are宽松, and the品种 volume is relatively small, price increases can be substantial. The pricing of gold and silver更侧重于 financial attributes; the commodities themselves are not明显消耗ed, and the core focus is on monetary policy and the financial environment. Currently, with a宽松 financial environment,货币超发, and intensified major power rivalry, the certainty of continued future price increases for precious metals like gold and silver is highest. For industrial metals with tight supply-demand, especially minor metals like tungsten and tin, price elasticity can be significant, but they are subject to supply-demand层面的扰动. Sun Xiaoming: We are relatively more optimistic about the subsequent表现 of gold, mainly based on the following points: First, gold possesses突出的 financial attributes, offering greater price elasticity and upside potential in complex macro environments; Second, persistent geopolitical conflicts, high global debt, potential weakening of US dollar credibility, and the rising trend of "de-dollarization" all利好 gold price increases to some extent; Third, while supply-demand contradictions for industrial metals like copper and aluminum are also突出, excessively high prices could反噬 demand.
品种 with Supply-Demand Improvements May Welcome Good Investment Opportunities China Fund News: Some suggest "returning growth to the cycle," meaning seeking opportunities in the盈利 stability of traditional resource companies and the high demand growth of emerging resource commodities (like lithium, nickel, rare earths). What is your view? Has this dual主线 become the new investment logic for the resources sector in 2026? Guo Yunsong: Personally, I believe everything is cyclical; growth is just a phase of the cycle. The cycle is like the four seasons, and growth is like spring and summer. Supply and demand analysis has always been the underlying framework for the resources sector;品种 with improving supply and demand are expected to welcome good investment opportunities. Huang Chao: Profit stability depends on a company's costs and the sustainability of industry景气, while growth depends on the company's capacity expansion. Investment opportunities need to be assessed based on the specific industry and company. Some traditional industries have slow growth, but if a company expands significantly, it may have good growth opportunities; some high-growth industries may have companies expanding slowly, not necessarily offering growth opportunities—it cannot be generalized. Cycle and growth are always important perspectives in investing, not a new investment logic specifically for the 2026 resources sector. Companies experiencing industry cycle upturns叠加ed with significant expansion often present individual stock investment opportunities with substantial potential. Cui Lei: This view indeed aligns with the conclusion that "non-ferrous metals are the growth sector within the cyclical industries." Traditionally,提到 cyclical sectors, people talk about "coal flying and色舞," but the "major non-ferrous metals行情" starting last year showed an independent trend, with traditional black commodities not keeping up, precisely reflecting the growth性 in demand for some metals within non-ferrous metals. For example, lithium, cobalt, and nickel benefited from the explosive growth of new energy vehicles driving their demand in the previous 2020-2021 upcycle; while the rise of related sectors this round同步s with the energy storage industry. Another example is the downstream demand for copper, which is closely related to the booming AI industry, such as AI data centers using 20,000-40,000 tons of copper per GW, making digital infrastructure a new driver of copper demand. On the other hand, we can also see that domestic traditional resource companies have made many efforts in integrated布局, corporate governance, cost control, and financing optimization over the past years. Compared with the profit表现 of past cyclical industries, their stability has significantly enhanced. Ye Peipei: In this cycle, traditional resources are endowed with more景气 growth. First, against the backdrop of deglobalization, the capital expenditure cycle is in a favorable position. Prices of major commodities led by copper have not yet stimulated a new capital expenditure cycle back to peak levels, making the profits of traditional resource companies趋于 stable for a longer duration. Second, the cycle will accompany the转换 between old and new动能 (driven mainly by the energy revolution and AI infrastructure) until全面 demand recovery. Resources related to electrification and energy转换, such as copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, are endowed with new growth curves under the new动能, and high景气 is expected to persist or recover. Chen Ziyang: Under supply constraints, the profit cycle of traditional resource commodity companies is延长ed, and profit stability improves.同时, as capital expenditure需求 declines, more cash flow is available for dividends and buybacks. New energy metals and minor metals have faster demand growth, and prices are also recovering from the bottom, suggesting related companies may experience both volume and price increases. Sun Xiaoming: The non-ferrous metals sector overall possesses strong cyclicality. Even lithium, which has good demand growth性, also has strong cyclicality, with prices often experiencing significant fluctuations. Currently, the entire non-ferrous metals sector is likely in the mid-stage of a major cycle, and most品种 may have good investment opportunities in the coming period.
Elevating to Strategic Allocation Height China Fund News: Against the backdrop of deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, and continued gold purchases by major central banks, what fundamental changes have occurred in the global capital allocation logic for resource stocks? How has this impacted your asset allocation strategy? Chen Ziyang: This大宗商品 cycle is not a simple inventory cycle but a cycle of共振 from multiple factors including the US debt cycle, supply chain restructuring, industrial transformation, and supply constraints, characterized by long duration and large magnitude. Resource commodities are capturing a higher profit share within the industrial chain, and in equity investments, resource commodities should be elevated to a strategic allocation height. Guo Yunsong: The current backgrounds of deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, and continued central bank gold purchases essentially point to one word—security. In the past, during the process of rapid global economic自由发展, efficiency was clearly prioritized. However, the current situation is that the天平 is gradually tilting towards security. From the perspective of many industrial developments and national strategies currently, many contradictions point to the security guarantee of最终 upstream resource commodities. Therefore, resource commodities may receive valuation提升 in terms of security属性 that previous cycles did not have. Personally, the underlying logic of my investment portfolio allocation will also lean more towards security. Huang Chao: Against the backdrop of deglobalization, supply chain restructuring, and central bank gold purchases, protectionism is rising in various countries, and supply disruptions for resource commodities are increasing. Investment requires close attention to geopolitical risks. Specifically regarding allocation strategy, I believe the overall impact is minimal; I still follow the principle of first selecting industries within resource品种 where price increase certainty is high, and then精选ing companies with investment value from among them. Ye Peipei: This round of resource commodity cycle is nested within the era背景 of deglobalization. Under the new world格局, the competition for securing key minerals and energy is intensifying. Recent frequent incidents in Venezuela and Greenland also highlight the争夺 for strategic materials and supply chain restructuring under major power博弈. Mineral-producing countries are protecting local mineral rights through resource nationalism to争取生存空间, which will lead to frequent supply disruptions and an elevated cost中枢 in the future. Central banks are rebalancing their assets by increasing allocations to gold and physical assets to respond to the下行 of the US dollar credit cycle and the safety concerns of US dollar assets. These have profound impacts on the future走势 of resource stocks and our asset allocation strategy: First, long-term strategic看好 of the allocation value of precious metals like gold; Second, firm看好 of the performance opportunities of scarce strategic resources. Cui Lei: Various types of capital are beginning to value the "insurance value" of大宗商品, and the enthusiasm for going long on "hard assets" has明显升温. In the context of deglobalization, the cost of resource acquisition is increasing, and countries are adding redundant inventory to ensure supply chain security, endowing resource commodities with hedging properties against supply disruptions and失控 inflation. The allocation logic has shifted from单纯的 "inflation trading" to a "security" logic: "financial security, geopolitical security, energy security." From an allocation strategy perspective, the shift is from单纯博弈ing on aggregate indicators like rate cut expectations to treating resource stocks as assets hedging sovereign credit risk, actively focusing on those品种 with scarcity, supply constraints, and on strategic asset lists, as well as resource标的 that can provide "supply chain security" in a deglobalized context. Sun Xiaoming: The investment logic for resource stocks has changed significantly this round. This major non-ferrous metals cycle is driven by supply constraints, resource security, and currency depreciation together. Under deglobalization, resource security has been elevated to an unprecedented height by various countries. Major countries are beginning to increase strategic reserves of key resources, which is an important边际增量 and likely to persist for a long time. Therefore, the magnitude and duration of this round of行情 could exceed expectations.
Risk-Reward Ratio Declines After Significant Rises in Some Sub-Sectors China Fund News: What do you believe are the main risks currently facing the resources sector? Huang Chao: The main risk facing the resources sector is that some sub-sectors and individual stocks have seen substantial gains over the past year, leading to a decline in the investment risk-reward ratio. There are many types of resource品类, and internal differentiation is large. Some sectors have not seen明显上涨 in the past year, so we will make some switches based on the risk-reward ratio to应对 potential risks. Cui Lei: In the short term, on one hand, we need to pay attention to the potential传导 of significant commodity price volatility. Previously, many non-ferrous metal品种 on the commodity side had reached historical or阶段性新高, and some品种 have recently experienced连续大幅回撤, indicating intensified short-term分歧. The传导 effect of commodity price volatility needs attention. On the other hand, be mindful of crowding risks at sentiment highs. Judging by trading share, the trading share of the non-ferrous metals industry has been operating above the P95 percentile of the past three years since the beginning of the year,同时 the turnover rate has also exceeded the P95 percentile of the past three years. Crowding risks in extreme sentiment zones require attention. In the medium to long term, one important factor supporting this non-ferrous metals行情 is the market's expectation for the continuation of宽松 liquidity. Subsequently, we need to monitor the pace of the Fed's current rate-cutting cycle and potential expectation扰动 under factors such as resilient fundamentals, gradually recovering employment, and the US midterm elections. Ye Peipei: We have observed that starting from Q4 2025, domestic demand in China weakened, with demand for industrial metals including copper and aluminum slowing both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. While old and new动能 are转换ing, marginal weakness appeared in光伏, automobiles, home appliances, etc., while energy storage and AI infrastructure showed accelerating trends. Potential risks in 2026 include: trade tariffs stimulating global copper inventory concentration in the US; supply interruptions of major mineral types due to disasters or accidents;升温 of resource nationalism; Chinese "anti-involution"; and squeeze sentiments due to low inventory. These all increase the volatility of resource commodity prices. Currently,期货 and macro narratives show strong bullish sentiment towards commodities, while the industrial实体层面 is more cautious. We will continuously track the实体 demand and inventory changes of major resource commodities,警惕ing the negative压制 from any emerging recession signs on resource commodities. Guo Yunsong: After significant gains over the past year, capital博弈 will bring a certain degree of high volatility risk. From a fundamental perspective, subsequent demand falling significantly short of expectations might break the inventory replenishment cycle. Risks such as rapid easing of geopolitical tensions,超预期 improvement in Sino-US relations, and global liquidity tightening could lead to a cooling of resource security demand. Chen Ziyang: After experiencing a previous round of significant gains, subsequent opportunities in the resources sector are likely to be concentrated more in structural areas within the sector. Analyzing from the downstream demand side, this round of non-ferrous metals行情, especially for industrial metals, belongs to a structural industrial opportunity. Different industries have显著差异 in their tolerance for inflation: some industries have strong acceptance能力 for inflation, such as the AI industry which has strong支付能力 and low price sensitivity, while industries like air conditioning and traditional power may face significant cost pressure. This is also a risk point to note when布局ing industrial metals this year. Sun Xiaoming: The main risk currently facing the resources sector或许是 uncertainty in the global macro economy. If major global economies do not experience a severe recession, demand for industrial metals will likely not face major issues. Conversely, if a recession is traded, the current上涨 logic could reverse.
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