Based on the refined oil product pricing mechanism, the next adjustment to fuel prices is scheduled to occur at 24:00 on Friday, September 11.
Having completed 50% of the current pricing cycle, the statistical window has now passed its midpoint. The data indicates a reversal from the initial downward trend, with projected increases now exceeding 0.15 yuan per liter, making a price hike highly likely for this round.
This shift is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, which have rapidly pushed up the risk premium in the crude oil market. Consequently, both international and domestic crude prices have surged significantly this week.
Calculations based on the fifth working day of the cycle show a projected increase of 160 yuan per tonne for gasoline and 155 yuan per tonne for diesel. In terms of retail prices, this translates to an estimated rise of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.14 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.13 yuan per liter for 0-diesel. Filling up a standard 50-liter tank is expected to cost motorists an additional 6.5 to 7 yuan.
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