GTHT has released a research report stating that global biologics are approaching a "patent cliff," and HENLIUS (02696) has already secured licensing partnerships with over ten pharmaceutical companies worldwide, positioning itself to fully capitalize on overseas expansion opportunities.
Innovation is creating a second growth curve for the company, with multiple innovative drugs and next-generation early-stage research platforms expected to drive long-term growth. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028E is projected at RMB 982 million, RMB 1.148 billion, and RMB 1.529 billion, respectively. Using the comparable company valuation method, a 48X PE is assigned for 2026, corresponding to a target price of RMB 86.49; referencing an HKD/RMB exchange rate of 0.85, this translates to a share price of HK$101.75, with an overweight rating.
GTHT notes that global biologics are heading toward a "patent cliff," with the accessible biosimilar market expected to grow from US$58 billion in 2025 to US$187 billion by 2030. The company has established licensing partnerships with over ten global pharmaceutical companies including Sandoz and Organon, with disclosed total transaction value exceeding US$3 billion. In August 2026, the company further granted Sandoz a bundled license for up to ten assets, with the profit-sharing ratio raised to 40%, reflecting enhanced bargaining power driven by scarce assets. The company's overseas business is entering a phase of intensive realization, with overseas revenue in 2025 reaching approximately RMB 260 million, representing year-on-year growth of over 100%. Denosumab and the first generic pertuzumab constitute the first wave of overseas growth engines; starting in 2028, scarce products such as Keytruda, Opdivo, and cetuximab will take over, opening a second wave of growth space; by 2030, overseas business will become the primary revenue pillar.
Innovation is creating a second growth curve for the company, with multiple late-stage assets possessing FIC/BIC potential. HLX43 (PD-L1 ADC) has enrolled over 1,500 patients globally, with cORR of 33%-38% across three subgroups in later-line NSCLC and cORR exceeding 50% in TSCC, and is expected to achieve accelerated approval in the United States through the AA pathway. HLX22 (HER2 monoclonal antibody) demonstrated a 24-month PFS rate of 61.5% in first-line gastric cancer Phase II trials (versus 11.4% in the control group), with diarrhea toxicity significantly lower than competitors, and Phase III data is expected to read out in 2027. Serplulimab is being developed with a differentiated layout across ES-SCLC, perioperative gastric cancer, and 1L MSS/pMMR colorectal cancer, with a US BLA expected to be submitted by the end of 2026.
The company has established four major early-stage research platforms: next-generation IO, ADC, multi-specific TCE, and AI-driven HAIClub. The IO platform has developed PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibodies and PD-1/IL-2 bifunctional molecules, carrying forward the immunotherapy pipeline after serplulimab; the TCE platform introduces CD28 co-stimulation to enhance T-cell durable killing; the ADC platform balances efficacy and safety through low-toxicity payloads and low-DAR design. The company's early-stage research reserve exceeds 20 molecules, with FIC/BIC accounting for nearly 80%, and multiple molecules have entered clinical trials in 2026, expected to drive medium-to-long-term growth.
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