According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a pivotal transition from severe volatility toward maturity and stability, with BloFin Research analysis suggesting that despite short-term selling pressure, the price recovery above the 50-week moving average signals the potential start of a new bull market cycle.
Technical verification shows that Bitcoin approached $78,800 in September and reclaimed that moving average level, then traded above $86,000 in early October, a pattern that closely matches the technical signals seen at the start of the bull markets in 2015, 2019, and 2023.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the MVRV ratio, which measures market value, rose to 1.54 as of October 11, above its 365-day average of 1.44, indicating that despite short-term selling pressure, the cost advantage of long-term holders is widening and market strength is strengthening significantly, consistent with the characteristics of early-stage historical bull markets.
The evolution of the cycle structure reveals a systematic decline in volatility. From the high of $124,824 in October 2025 to the low of $58,525 in June 2026, the decline was about 53%, far below the depth of previous bear markets; at the same time, the bull market gain multiple shrank sharply from 530x in earlier periods to 8x recently.
If June is taken as the bottom, this bear market lasted only 8 months, shorter than the historical average of 12 to 13 months. This change is partly attributable to the halving pattern: Bitcoin peaked about 18 months after the April 2024 halving, in line with the traditional cycle rhythm, but the compression of amplitude indicates the market is becoming more rational.
Fundamental support mainly comes from the surge in long-term holdings and the stability of institutional positions. In September, about 16.64 million Bitcoin, or 83% of the circulating supply, had not been traded for at least 155 days, showing significant coin accumulation.
As of October 2, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT.US) held 1.3 million coins, and listed companies held 1.29 million coins, together accounting for 13%. However, last week's $679 million ETF outflow exposed the fragility of institutional demand.
On October 11, Bitcoin traded at about $83,000. Although above the September moving-average breakout level and the June low, if it falls below the 50-week moving average or the key support of $58,525, the bullish logic will be challenged. As the market transitions toward stability, it may still see sharp pullbacks due to capital outflows.
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