Abstract
BP PLC will release its quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market. This preview aggregates recent financial data and forecasts, evaluates the main business drivers and risks, and synthesizes institutional commentary and consensus expectations to frame likely outcomes and catalysts around the upcoming report.
Market Forecast
Consensus and company-provided estimates suggest BP PLC’s current quarter revenue will be USD 46.68 billion, with an estimated year-over-year decline of 1.76%. Forecasts point to EBIT of USD 4.68 billion with year-over-year growth of 20.85%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.64 with year-over-year growth of 37.22%. Margin commentary implies a focus on stabilizing gross profit margin and net profit margin; however, formal guidance for gross profit margin and net profit margin this quarter is not provided. BP PLC highlights a diversified mix led by Customers & Products (marketing and trading) and Gas & Low Carbon Energy, with stabilization expected in trading-led income and regulated midstream earnings. The segment with the strongest potential is Gas & Low Carbon Energy, supported by long-term contracts and project ramp-ups; last quarter revenue from this segment was USD 9.35 billion with continued YoY momentum.
Last Quarter Review
BP PLC’s previous quarter reported revenue of USD 49.25 billion, a gross profit margin of 28.39%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 1.16 billion, a net profit margin of 2.40%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.85, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 4.17%. One notable highlight was EBIT of USD 5.33 billion, surpassing prior estimates by USD 0.21 billion, indicating resilient operational results despite softer revenue. Main business performance was led by Customers & Products revenue of USD 38.63 billion and Gas & Low Carbon Energy revenue of USD 9.35 billion, while Oil Production & Operations contributed USD 0.32 billion, underscoring the dominance of downstream and gas-linked earnings.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main Business: Customers & Products
Customers & Products is the largest contributor to BP PLC’s revenue base, reflecting marketing, retail, trading, and refining-linked activities. The current quarter’s outcome will hinge on product cracks, retail margins, and trading performance across oil and refined products. The estimate set indicates revenue will soften quarter-on-quarter while earnings quality may benefit from disciplined inventory management and optimized supply chains. Refining utilization and planned maintenance will influence margin realization, while fuel retail spreads could be shaped by seasonal demand normalization after holiday peaks. Trading conditions have moderated compared with the prior period’s volatility, but still offer opportunities in distillate and gasoline spreads; any outperformance versus peers would likely come from risk-managed trading books and market dislocations in regional supply, which can lift segment EBIT even as topline declines.
Most Promising Business: Gas & Low Carbon Energy
Gas & Low Carbon Energy shows the most visible path to durable growth, with contracted volumes, integrated LNG marketing, and regulated pipeline earnings driving predictability. The forecasted EBIT growth in the consolidated outlook is consistent with contributions from LNG volumes and portfolio optimization, even with a modest headline revenue decline. Seasonal gas demand and European hub price movements will be critical; a mild winter or ample storage could cap price spikes, but portfolio flexibility can still support marketing margins and EBIT mix. Project ramps and continued debottlenecking in LNG and gas infrastructure are positives, and management’s ongoing cost discipline in lower-carbon projects can protect returns despite capital intensity. If realized, these dynamics would underpin the majority of the company’s expected EBIT uplift versus the prior year period and remain a near-term differentiator relative to oil-heavy peers.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock will be most sensitive to the relationship between headline revenue and margin quality, particularly whether EBIT and adjusted EPS meet or exceed estimates despite projected revenue softness. Investors will watch for signals on trading performance sustainability, refinery margins, and LNG marketing profitability, which together shape operating cash flow and buyback capacity. Commentary on capital allocation, including dividend stability and any incremental buybacks, will be parsed in the context of net debt trajectories and macro price decks for oil and gas. Operational updates on project delivery in gas and low-carbon investments, alongside any new guidance on 2026 volume or margin targets, could influence sentiment more than small revenue variances. Finally, any disclosures regarding asset sales, impairments, or one-offs that affect GAAP net profit will be weighed against adjusted metrics to assess earnings quality.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent institutional views, the prevailing stance is cautiously optimistic, with the majority expecting BP PLC to deliver in-line to slightly better-than-expected adjusted EPS and EBIT against a softer revenue backdrop. Several well-followed sell-side desks highlight the uplift potential from Gas & Low Carbon Energy and a resilient trading book, while acknowledging downside risks from refining margin normalization and benign gas prices. The bullish camp emphasizes stronger EBIT conversion and cash generation, implying flexibility for shareholder distributions and targeted capex in growth projects, which could support valuation relative to integrated peers. This viewpoint anticipates that management will reiterate disciplined capital returns while preserving optionality for strategic investments in LNG and lower-carbon platforms, setting a constructive tone for the remainder of the year.
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