Spot price movements on the Yangtze Nonferrous Metals Network as of the morning close on May 15: 1# Copper was quoted at 105,790 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan; the premium stood at 180 yuan/ton, unchanged. A00 Aluminum Ingot was quoted at 24,370 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the discount was reported at 175 yuan. 0# Zinc was quoted at 24,750 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; 1# Zinc was quoted at 24,650 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan. 1# Lead Ingot was quoted at 16,525 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. 1# Nickel was quoted at 144,350 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan. 1# Tin was quoted at 423,500 yuan/ton, down 4,500 yuan.
【Macro and Market Sentiment】 US retail sales data for April posted the strongest gain in eight months, coupled with higher-than-expected PPI figures. This has significantly dampened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with some even pricing in the possibility of a rate hike. The US dollar index has returned to a strong pattern, directly pressuring US dollar-denominated nonferrous metals. However, uncertainties in geopolitical situations and localized fractures in the global supply chain have enabled some specific metals to exhibit strong resilience against declines despite the macro headwinds.
【Copper: Pullback from Highs, Fundamental Logic Unchanged】 On the macro front, a strong US dollar and hawkish Fed expectations have directly increased the holding costs for copper. Combined with profit-taking by long positions at elevated levels, copper prices are facing downward pressure. On the industrial side, while Zambia's relaxation of sulfuric acid export restrictions has alleviated some supply concerns, global copper mine supply risks remain severe. Delays in the resumption of Indonesian mines, the energy crisis in Peru, and persistently negative copper concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in China all reinforce the reality of tight mine supply. On the demand structure, although high copper prices have suppressed some downstream purchasing, emerging demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles is reshaping the consumption pattern, providing long-term support for copper prices. Spot copper is expected to continue its downward adjustment today but will likely maintain a high-level consolidation overall. The reference fluctuation range is 104,000-108,000 yuan/ton.
【Aluminum: Strong Overseas, Weak Domestic, Domestic Off-Season Pressure】 The aluminum market shows a clear pattern of "strong overseas, weak domestic." Overseas, the stalemate in US-Iran relations has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed. LME aluminum inventories remain persistently low with an extremely high proportion of canceled warrants, supporting stronger overseas prices. Domestically, pressured by weakness in surrounding metals and fundamental pressures, SHFE aluminum is under pressure. Although there are signs of destocking in domestic social inventories, levels remain high. Furthermore, demand has entered the traditional off-season, with the spot discount structure persisting and buyers remaining cautious. Spot aluminum is expected to fluctuate lower today, with a reference range of 24,200-25,000 yuan/ton.
【Zinc: Frequent Supply Incidents Support Price Strength】 Although the strong US dollar index caps upside potential, intense supply-side disruptions have become the core focus for zinc. Following an accident at a Kazakh smelter, a fire halted operations at Peru's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter, the largest in Latin America, shattering market expectations of ample zinc supply. Current LME zinc inventories are sufficient for less than three days of global consumption. These extremely low inventory levels amplify supply risks. Domestically, although social inventories have accumulated to their highest level in nearly four years for the same period and terminal orders are flat, the logic of tight overseas supply remains firm. Spot zinc is expected to maintain a high-range trend today. While there may be tug-of-war around the 25,000 yuan/ton level, the overall strong bias remains unchanged.
【Nickel: Structural Divergence, Inventory Pressure Emerges】 The nickel industry chain exhibits extreme divergence. In the long term, reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia and sulfur shortages in the Middle East are limiting hydrometallurgical capacity. In the short term, however, nickel pig iron and nickel sulfate capacity continues to be released, keeping spot supply relatively ample. On the demand side, the stainless steel industry is in its off-season. While demand from new energy batteries is stable, it has not effectively boosted overall consumption. Under high inventory pressure, nickel prices are expected to trade weakly with fluctuations today, with a domestic range likely around 142,000-146,000 yuan/ton.
【Tin and Lead: Tin Consolidates at Highs, Lead Faces Loose Supply-Demand】 Tin prices are suppressed by the strong US dollar, but optimistic demand expectations fueled by the AI boom are limiting the downside. Tin is expected to consolidate at high levels in the short term, following macro sentiment and the semiconductor sector. The lead market is pressured by the domestic consumption off-season, with downstream players only maintaining essential purchases. The loose supply-demand dynamic is weighing on lead prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely at low levels in the short term without a strong trend.
【Outlook and Trading Suggestions】 Overall, the nonferrous metals market is currently in a complex phase of contest between macro headwinds and industrial fundamentals. Short-term focus should be on whether supply-side disruptions (e.g., Peru's energy crisis, zinc smelter shutdowns) will persist and the pace of domestic inventory destocking.
For investors, a strategy of "light on macro, heavy on industry" is suggested. Metals like copper and zinc have numerous supply-side stories; short-term pullbacks may present opportunities for bottom-fishing. Conversely, aluminum and lead are weighed down by the domestic off-season and high inventories, suggesting a focus on range-bound trading or selling on rallies. Caution is warranted against the risk of a systemic correction should the US dollar index strengthen further.
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