Driven by the strong performance of Jiugui Liquor, the baijiu sector showed a notable rebound this week, with the Wind Baijiu Index posting a weekly gain of 6.28%, marking the largest weekly increase this year. However, while the industry experienced significant gains, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd.'s weekly gain was less than 1%, with its stock performance ranking at the bottom of the A-share brewing sector.
The underperformance of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd. is related to three major pressures it faces: setbacks in premium positioning, poor results from channel reforms, and share reductions by its controlling shareholder. Despite the generally low industry sentiment, this week the baijiu industry attracted close attention from investors due to the combination of favorable factors including obvious valuation advantages and the approaching Mid-Autumn Festival peak season.
The Wind Baijiu Index achieved a weekly gain of 6.28%, closing at 62,557.44 points, reaching a new high since the second quarter of this year. Among individual stocks, Jiugui Liquor posted a weekly gain of 25.1%, standing out as the sector leader; *ST Yanshi, Shede Spirits, Jiannanchun, and Zhenjiu Lidu also saw weekly gains exceeding 10%, with significant stock price rebounds. Additionally, Shuijingfang, *ST Yedao, Jinshiyuan, Yilite, and Jinzhongzi Liquor all posted weekly gains above 6%, outperforming the Wind Baijiu Index.
Huatai Securities analysis indicates that the current baijiu fundamentals are stabilizing month-on-month, expecting that baijiu sales performance since August has shown narrowing declines month-on-month. Particularly, mass banquet scenarios such as graduation banquets and family gatherings have recovered rapidly, with baijiu products priced below 300 yuan showing recovery. Government and business consumption remains under pressure, but is expected to steadily recover as policy restrictions gradually ease. Meanwhile, due to rapid demand decline earlier, some channels and terminal distributors have become more cautious with payments and shipments. Overall, the industry fundamentals are currently bottoming out and stabilizing, with the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season approaching and expectations for steady demand recovery to drive improved industry sales.
From individual baijiu stock performance, second and third-tier baijiu stocks generally performed well this week, while leading companies showed moderate rebounds, with Shanxi Fenjiu, Kweichow Moutai, and Wuliangye all posting weekly gains around 3%. Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd., once the second-largest Anhui liquor company, only gained 0.79% this week, ranking at the bottom of the A-share brewing industry performance, appearing quite unusual.
Analysis reveals that Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd. released its interim 2025 performance report this week. From the performance feedback, the company faces considerable operational pressure, and combined with negative factors such as controlling shareholder reductions, investor preference for the company has declined.
Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd.'s interim report shows that in the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.531 billion yuan, down 20.07% year-on-year; net profit reached 715 million yuan, down 24.63% year-on-year. Notably, the company's premium baijiu segment only achieved sales revenue of 2.385 billion yuan in the first half of this year, down 19.8% year-on-year. As the core profit driver, the nearly 20% decline in premium baijiu directly impacted Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd.'s profitability.
In terms of channels, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd. has been transitioning from a large distributor system to a "1+N" small distributor model in recent years, extensively employing group purchase and special distributors to assist large distributors with small ones. Although the company's distributor count continues to increase, this reform has not shown obvious effectiveness during the industry downturn cycle.
While revenue and net profit both declined by over 20%, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.,Ltd.'s actual controller Liu Ansheng plans another share reduction, expecting to reduce holdings by no more than 10 million shares. Based on the closing price of the trading day before the reduction announcement, this represents a value exceeding 300 million yuan. Public information shows that in September 2024, Liu Ansheng transferred 1.08% of shares to Xu Jin through block trading, reducing his shareholding ratio from 11.66% to 10.58%. The controlling shareholder's continued share reductions seem to signal pessimistic expectations to the market, affecting investor confidence.
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