Following a provisional peace agreement between Washington and Tehran, oil and gas producers across the Persian Gulf have ramped up shipments. Notably, major oil producer Saudi Arabia is exporting its largest oil loadings since the Iranian conflict blocked the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest vessel tracking data shows four supertankers, loaded with crude at Saudi Arabia's primary oil and gas export hubs, appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Thursday. This marks the largest single-day departure volume since the peace agreement took effect approximately two weeks ago. Tracking and statistical figures indicate around 8 million barrels of Saudi crude moved through waters towards the Strait of Hormuz with these four supertankers on Thursday, setting the largest single-batch/single-day departure volume from the Gulf since the provisional peace deal. This underscores the rapid recovery of crude logistics following the Strait's reopening and the continued ebbing of energy risk premiums.
Furthermore, since Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings within the Persian Gulf, its crude exports have surged to levels nearing those seen before the conflict. This provides additional evidence that supply from regional oil producers is recovering following the U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement. Over the six days leading up to Wednesday, Saudi Arabia's daily exports reached 6.3 million barrels. This brings its crude flow essentially in line with the average level for 2025 and to nearly 90% of the level seen in February of this year—a period before the Iran war erupted when Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors significantly increased supply.
As Saudi supertankers begin departing in succession through the recently and orderly reopened Strait of Hormuz, the most dangerous upside tail risk for U.S. inflation is being diminished, though this does not equate to the inflation problem being resolved. For the Federal Reserve, however, this is not a sufficient condition for an immediate pivot to easing, but rather a necessary condition for shifting from "being forced to guard against re-inflation" to "awaiting data to confirm the resumption of disinflation."
U.S. CPI data for May showed the energy index rose 3.9% month-on-month, with gasoline up 7.0%. The energy component contributed over 60% of the overall CPI increase for the month. Over the past 12 months, energy prices rose 23.5% and gasoline surged 40.5%, indicating that the earlier oil price shock has substantially elevated inflation readings. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA also noted that higher global crude prices are pushing up expectations for U.S. refined product prices, with wholesale price forecasts for diesel and jet fuel significantly revised upwards compared to pre-conflict February projections, and gasoline wholesale price expectations also notably increased.
Therefore, the monetary policy significance of the gradually recovering Hormuz shipping route lies in reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to implement further interest rate hikes, not in immediately opening the door to substantial rate cuts. Only when energy price declines further dampen inflation expectations, and core services, wages, and housing inflation cool in tandem, will the Fed have more substantial grounds to shift from a "highly restrictive rate" stance to a genuine easing cycle.
Key Evidence of Crude Risk Premium Receding
With approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil leaving the Persian Gulf on Thursday aboard four Saudi supertankers—appearing in the Gulf of Oman after transiting the Strait of Hormuz—the risk of supply chain blockages has marginally eased. This development is bearish for the geopolitical premium on oil prices and marginally supportive for expectations of cooling U.S. inflation and a gradual Fed pivot towards a rate-cutting path.
This serves as the latest evidence that OPEC's largest oil producer is significantly boosting petroleum exports since ships began genuinely transiting the Strait of Hormuz, following the U.S. and Iran's agreement to reopen the vital shipping channel while negotiations to end the latest round of Middle East geopolitical conflict are ongoing. Reports on Wednesday indicated that Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil giant, Saudi Aramco, has sold at least 6 million barrels of crude to Asian clients on a spot basis, a departure from its standard practice under long-term agreements.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has begun to pick up, with vessels increasingly moving in convoys to pass through the strait. Large energy-laden vessels typically navigate a U.S.-managed channel in Omani waters, though some also use safer routes closer to the Iranian coast. Another Saudi-owned tanker, loaded with crude at the Ras Tanura port, departed the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. Currently, only a limited number of Saudi tankers remain within the Persian Gulf. Among four tankers still near the Ras Tanura port, two are signaling they are fully loaded, while another has not updated its draft but appears to have undergone significant loading at the port in recent days.
Critical Buffer for U.S. Inflation Pressure
Saudi Aramco has resumed loadings at Ras Tanura port and has begun spot sales to Asian clients. Concurrently, oil prices have declined consecutively as supply disruption concerns ease, with both Brent and WTI crude retreating to levels near their lows since late February.
Australia-based international financial giant Macquarie Group has recently significantly lowered its baseline forecasts for international oil prices in 2026 and 2027. The core reason is the firm's expectation that oil flows from the Middle East will rapidly normalize under the framework of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Recently, Wall Street majors including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have aligned in cutting the "war risk premium" priced into oil expectations and have uniformly downgraded their oil price forecasts. Meanwhile, Brent crude has fallen to around $70 per barrel. The drop in oil prices reflects the market beginning to bet on positive U.S.-Iran negotiations, a 60-day sanctions waiver, and the restoration of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the provisional U.S.-Iran peace agreement, oil and gas energy is again being shipped out of the Persian Gulf on a large scale. Strategists from Macquarie now expect the international crude benchmark, Brent, to average $77 per barrel in 2026, significantly lower than its previous forecast of $89 and the extreme $200 expectation under the worst-case U.S.-Iran conflict scenario. The firm also lowered its 2027 Brent average price outlook from $74 to $64 per barrel.
These latest energy supply recovery developments signify that the "energy-driven inflation shock," previously fueled by the U.S.-Iran war, the Hormuz blockade, and shipping risk premiums, is now reversing. If input costs for crude oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and liquefied natural gas continue to decline, this will first lower the energy component within U.S. headline CPI and PCE. Subsequently, through channels such as transportation, airfares, chemicals, agricultural inputs, and corporate profit margins, it will begin to weaken re-inflationary pressures.
However, for the Federal Reserve, this is not a sufficient condition for an immediate pivot to easing, but a necessary condition for shifting from "being forced to guard against re-inflation" to "awaiting data to confirm the resumption of disinflation." Only when energy price declines further dampen inflation expectations, and core services, wages, and housing inflation cool in tandem, will the Fed have more substantial grounds to shift from a "highly restrictive rate" stance to a genuine easing or a more accommodative monetary policy cycle.
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