Hong Kong's three major stock indices closed collectively higher today after trading in a narrow range throughout the session; on the board, technology and consumer stocks gained broadly, while biopharmaceutical and optical communication sectors declined. By the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.57% to 23,525.97 points, with full-day turnover of HK$236.404 billion; the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 0.74% to 3,867.73 points.
In the Hong Kong ETF space, among products ranked by scale, the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) closed up 0.77% at HK$23.66; the CSOP Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (03033) rose 1.01% to HK$3.798; the CSOP SK Hynix Daily Leveraged (2x) Product (07709) closed down 9.77% at HK$21.98.
Overseas AI financing concerns and sentiment transmission weigh on AI computing power, communications and semiconductor equipment
Overseas AI financing worries and sentiment contagion drove continued pullbacks in AI computing power, communications and semiconductor equipment. By the close, the Guotai Communications ETF (515880.SH) fell 7.36% to 0.403 yuan; the Southern ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159382.SZ) dropped 6.5% to 1.713 yuan; the Huatai-PineBridge STAR Semiconductor Equipment ETF (588710.SH) declined 6.41% to 0.599 yuan. Overnight, US technology stocks weakened collectively, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 3%, as market concerns over overseas cloud providers' computing power procurement pace and data center debt sustainability intensified simultaneously, with AI financing worries accelerating their transmission from overseas to A-share computing power chain.
Notably, overnight optical communications leader Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) announced an all-stock acquisition of Lumentum (LITE.US) valued at approximately $115 billion, sending Marvell shares down 12.7% and Lumentum down 18.6%, further triggering a valuation reassessment across chip and optical communication sectors. Semiconductor equipment posted the steepest declines, stemming partly from sentiment pressure from the weakening Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and some heavyweight companies' earnings misses; on the other hand, major global memory manufacturers' third-quarter revenue growth slowed sequentially compared with the prior quarter, with the market beginning to worry that the peak of memory chip earnings growth trajectory has passed, dragging the valuation center lower. The equipment segment was additionally affected by disturbances from tight component supply and delayed order confirmation timing.
Galaxy Securities believes the A-share semiconductor sector has already completed its risk release from late September to October ahead of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, leaving limited room for further downside.
Domestic demand expansion policies land densely, Hong Kong consumer sector strengthens throughout the day
With domestic demand expansion policies landing densely, the Hong Kong consumer sector strengthened throughout the day. By the close, the Yinhua Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735.SZ) rose 4.13% to 0.655 yuan; the E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513070.SH) gained 3.95% to 1.079 yuan; the China Universal Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (159268.SZ) rose 3.14% to 0.756 yuan. Policy signals for domestic demand expansion were released intensively, with the National Development and Reform Commission and four other departments issuing the "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Consumer Infrastructure Construction to Promote Positive Interaction Between Consumer Investment," proposing 20 specific measures across six areas including urban and rural commercial facilities, service consumption facilities, and travel consumption facilities; the NDRC also stated it is studying and formulating a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand and will expedite its issuance, with consumer goods trade-in programs and personal consumer loan interest subsidies continuing to be implemented, and the subsidy cap further raised. Hong Kong catering, dairy, and beer sectors linked to domestic demand strengthened collectively, with capital rebalancing from high-level technology growth toward low-valuation domestic demand. CITIC Securities research noted that the consumer sector currently offers more "weak demand, high odds" left-side allocation value.
Geopolitical risk premium rapidly squeezed out, cross-border oil and gas products decline collectively
With geopolitical risk premiums rapidly squeezed out, cross-border oil and gas products declined collectively. By the close, the Harvest S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518.SZ) fell 5.88% to 1.328 yuan; the Fullgoal S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350.SH) dropped 6.28% to 1.402 yuan; the F Samsung Crude Oil Futures (03175.HK) fell 2.88% to HK$12.83. International oil prices recorded their largest single-day drop in nearly three months on Monday, with December-delivery WTI crude futures falling 7.4% to settle at $96.46 per barrel, and January-delivery Brent crude futures dropping 7.6% to settle at $104.77 per barrel. Iran indicated it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if its demands are met, while the US also said it is in no hurry to resume military action, rapidly squeezing out the geopolitical risk premium that had accumulated over the strait situation. Nanhua Futures expects short-term oil prices to remain highly volatile, with focus on US midterm election results, subsequent US-Iran negotiation progress, and actual navigation changes in the Strait of Hormuz. Haitong Futures judges that the geopolitical situation will likely de-escalate, with short-term oil prices still having room to fall, though Middle East conflict escalation risks need to be guarded against.
Institutional views
Guoyuan Securities believes Hong Kong internet valuations are at historical bottoms with limited downside, but upward breakthroughs still require earnings realization and capital return verification. After large technology companies' third-quarter reports, market scrutiny of AI capital expenditure returns has intensified, with the sector's core driver gradually shifting to global repricing of whether AI investment can deliver returns. North America's four major cloud providers' third-quarter cash capital expenditure totaled $200.5 billion, up 108% year-on-year, with combined free cash flow falling to -$25 billion. In the short term, the November 3 midterm elections are the biggest source of uncertainty, with multiple factors likely to continue suppressing Hong Kong technology risk appetite. Guotai Haitong stated that short-term uncertainties including the AI narrative, geopolitical conflicts, and US midterm elections remain to be observed, with overseas risk-aversion rising and Hong Kong capital flow headwinds yet to be digested. At the sector level, continue to prioritize Hong Kong high-dividend assets in the fourth quarter, while selecting elastic targets with expanding AI application scenarios in third-quarter reports or potential inclusion in the Hang Seng Tech Index in Q3.
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