Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced on the 10th that the control of the Strait of Hormuz has entered a "new phase," though specific new measures were not detailed. Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated on the 9th that Iran will not let aggressors go unpunished and will seek compensation for war losses and for the blood of martyrs. Control of the Strait of Hormuz will also advance to a new stage. An Iranian source indicated that under the current ceasefire conditions, Iran is allowing no more than 15 vessels per day to pass through the strait.
In a televised statement on the 9th, Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran does not seek war but will not abandon its rights. The statement, released on the 40th day of mourning for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, highlighted national unity as key to Iran's wartime successes. It outlined three main points: Iran will demand war reparations and seek justice for martyrs; it will move control of the Strait of Hormuz into a new phase; and it will not relinquish its legitimate rights, considering all regional "resistance fronts" as a unified whole. The statement also called on Iran's Gulf Arab neighbors to choose the "right side," offering goodwill if they distance themselves from "arrogant hegemonic powers."
In related developments, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire starting from 16:00 Moscow time on April 11. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that Ukraine is prepared for reciprocal measures and will observe the ceasefire during the holiday period.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on April 9 that Israel will not halt its operations in Lebanon until security is restored for northern residents and Hezbollah is disarmed. He mentioned that direct negotiations with Lebanon have been ordered to discuss disarming Hezbollah and achieving a historic, sustainable peace agreement. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed he urged Netanyahu to act "more discreetly" in Lebanon to support U.S. diplomatic efforts for a ceasefire with Iran. The first direct talks between Israel and Lebanon are scheduled for next week in Washington.
International oil prices experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude futures closing up 1.23% and WTI crude futures rising 3.66% after paring earlier gains amid easing Middle East tensions. U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Nasdaq up 0.83%, the S&P 500 up 0.62%, and the Dow Jones up 0.58%.
Analysts suggest that oil price fluctuations may intensify. Sui Xiaoying, chief petrochemical researcher at Founder Midterm Futures, noted that differing performances among crude futures are normal due to distinct market fundamentals, contract specifications, and participant structures. The initial supply disruption from Middle East conflicts affected prices in Asia and the Middle East more significantly, but sustained shortages have boosted demand for U.S. crude, strengthening WTI prices. Yan Lili, an oil researcher at Xinhu Futures, explained that the current divergence—strong WTI near-month contracts versus weak SC crude futures—stems from specific factors: potential increased U.S. exports support WTI, while reduced refinery operations in China weigh on SC prices. Additions to deliverable grades by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, lower freight costs from the Middle East to China, and declining Middle East crude prices have also impacted SC futures.
Uncertainty in the Middle East continues to pose risks for oil markets. Short-term price movements are likely to be driven by geopolitical developments and market sentiment. The medium-term outlook depends on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the pace of supply restoration in the Middle East. A swift U.S.-Iran agreement might not immediately resolve supply issues, as clearing the backlog of vessels and restarting shut-in production of 10 million barrels per day could take until the third quarter or year-end. If negotiations fail, geopolitical risk premiums could resurge, pushing prices toward previous highs.
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