Abstract
Align Technology will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 04, 2026, Post Market. This preview consolidates market forecasts and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS, alongside main business dynamics across clear aligners and scanners from October 21, 2025 to January 28, 2026.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of USD 1.03 billion, EBIT of USD 256.70 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.97, implying year-over-year growth of 3.98%, 13.94%, and 21.68% respectively. While gross margin and net margin guidance are not explicitly quantified by consensus, trajectory suggests stable-to-improving profitability versus last year; the company’s primary revenue engine, clear aligners, is expected to underpin top-line expansion with supportive mix and price dynamics. Within the portfolio, scanners remain the most promising contributor, driven by continued iTero adoption and workflow integration; revenue here is expected to rise from a last-quarter base of USD 189.89 million with favorable year-over-year momentum.
Last Quarter Review
In the third quarter of 2025, Align Technology reported revenue of USD 995.69 million, a gross margin of 67.00%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of USD 56.75 million, a net margin of 5.70%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.61, representing year-over-year growth of 1.82% for revenue and 11.06% for EPS. Quarter-on-quarter net income declined by 54.45%, reflecting seasonality, channel normalization, and cost phasing, although operating execution outperformed consensus on EBIT and EPS. Main business highlights show clear aligner revenue of USD 805.80 million and scanners revenue of USD 189.89 million; clear aligners continue to account for 80.93% of sales, with ongoing strength in teen cases and international markets.
Current Quarter Outlook
Clear Aligners: Core demand drivers, mix, and regional dynamics
Clear aligners are the central growth engine this quarter, with expected incremental case volume supported by sustained orthodontist adoption and consumer-led aesthetic demand. Mix is likely to benefit from premium packages and teen-focused solutions, which historically carry favorable margins, reinforcing EPS leverage implied by the forecast. Regional dynamics matter: North America demand is expected to be steady, while Europe offers incremental volume growth despite macro sensitivity; management focus on international expansion continues to broaden the addressable base. Case starts are also influenced by marketing activity, digital treatment planning tools, and discounting discipline, which together can tilt margins; with a baseline 67.00% gross margin last quarter, small improvements in manufacturing efficiency and pricing can translate to outsized EBIT growth. Risks remain the cadence of doctor training, consumer sentiment in elective procedures, and potential FX headwinds in non-USD markets, which could moderate the revenue growth rate even as operational metrics improve.
Scanners and Services: iTero adoption and digital workflow integration
Scanners, notably iTero, are positioned as the fastest-growing opportunity due to the increasing penetration of intraoral scanning and digital dentistry workflows. The previous quarter’s USD 189.89 million base provides a runway for double-digit year-over-year expansion if installation cycles and upgrade programs maintain pace, supported by software subscriptions and service contracts that add durability to revenue. Integration with treatment planning platforms improves doctor productivity and case acceptance, creating a reinforcing loop for aligner volume over time. The forecasted EPS acceleration suggests margin expansion that can be complemented by higher software attach rates to scanners, aiding recurring revenue quality. Upside drivers include product refreshes, enhanced AI-enabled diagnostics, and deeper connectivity with lab partners; downside risks involve capital budgeting cycles at dental practices and timing of large deals, which can cause quarterly variability.
Factors Most Impacting Share Price This Quarter: Execution against forecast, margins, and demand visibility
Share performance is likely to hinge on whether Align Technology delivers above the forecasted USD 1.03 billion revenue and USD 2.97 adjusted EPS, with investors attentive to qualitative commentary around case volume trends and backlog. Margin disclosure will be closely watched given last quarter’s 67.00% gross margin and 5.70% net margin; any indication of manufacturing cost relief, freight normalization, or mix upgrades would validate the consensus EBIT growth of 13.94%. Demand visibility into early 2026, particularly around consumer sentiment for discretionary orthodontics and regional performance in Europe and Asia, can reset expectations; confirmations of stable pricing and reduced promotion intensity would be constructive. The quarter-on-quarter decline in net income last period underscores sensitivity to phasing; clear signals of sustainable operating leverage and disciplined spend will be interpreted as supportive for valuation multiples. Commentary on product roadmap for scanners and software could further influence multiple expansion, given the market’s preference for recurring and higher-margin components.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional commentary collected over the past three months points to a majority constructive stance, emphasizing stable case growth and improving profitability metrics into the fourth quarter. Analysts highlight the forecasted USD 1.03 billion revenue and USD 2.97 adjusted EPS as achievable, citing resilience in orthodontist demand and digital adoption across practices. A favorable view centers on the EBIT trajectory to USD 256.70 million, reflecting operating efficiencies and a richer product mix; institutions expect scanners momentum to complement aligner volumes, with software and services enhancing recurring revenue. Consensus commentary also notes that last quarter’s outperformance versus estimates on EBIT and EPS sets a higher execution bar, though the framework of mid-single-digit revenue growth with double-digit EPS growth is seen as reasonable. Bullish views dominate relative to cautious takes, underscoring confidence in Align Technology’s ability to deliver against guidance and maintain margin discipline in the face of macro variability.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments