Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin stated that whether military conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran alters the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path depends critically on the duration of its impact on the U.S. economy. In a television interview on Thursday, Barkin indicated that changes in energy prices would be a significant factor in policy assessment. "Clearly, rising gasoline prices create inflationary pressures," he said. "From a textbook monetary policy perspective, if it's a short-term shock, central banks typically look through it. But if the shock is persistent, it cannot be ignored. I believe this is the core issue policymakers need to evaluate." The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for March 17-18. Several officials have previously suggested that policymakers might hold interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting until there is further evidence of declining inflation. Data shows the Fed's preferred inflation measure rose 2.9% year-over-year in December, still significantly above its long-term 2% target. Barkin pointed out that recent and upcoming data indicate "inflation has been relatively high over the past few months," meaning it is premature to conclude that the fight against inflation is over. "This certainly gives pause to any conclusion that we are finished with the inflation fight." Regarding employment, Fed officials generally believe the labor market is stabilizing, leading policymakers to adopt a more cautious stance on further policy easing following three consecutive rate cuts at the end of last year. Barkin explained that the rationale for last year's rate cuts was that policymakers perceived increased downside risks to the labor market and reduced risks of resurgent inflation. However, he noted that recent months' data suggest the balance of risks "is shifting in the other direction." The latest data released on Thursday showed that U.S. initial jobless claims were largely unchanged last week, but continuing claims, an important gauge of the number of people receiving benefits, saw the largest increase so far this year. Despite this, Barkin described the overall recent employment data as "reassuring." When discussing the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, Barkin expressed his anticipation of working with Kevin Warsh. President Trump has nominated the former Fed Governor to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell's term ends in May. Warsh is widely expected to face pressure from the White House for rate cuts, as Trump has explicitly stated his desire for a new chair to advocate for more accommodative interest rate policies. In recent months, Warsh has also publicly argued that the Fed could create room for further rate cuts by reducing its current balance sheet of approximately $6.6 trillion. Responding to this, Barkin stated on Thursday that he is open in principle to reducing the Fed's footprint in financial markets. "Intuitively, I like the idea of a smaller Fed footprint in financial markets," he said, but added that this must be done while still effectively implementing monetary policy, stabilizing interest rates, and avoiding severe disruptions to financial markets.
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