Everbright Securities analysis indicates that Tesla's vehicle deliveries continued to decline in the first quarter of 2026. The underperformance relative to expectations is primarily attributed to intensifying global competition and the phase-out of electric vehicle subsidies in the United States. In the domestic Chinese market, new energy vehicle sales showed a month-on-month recovery in March. LI AUTO-W delivered 41,053 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and a month-on-month increase of 55.4%. NIO-SW reported deliveries of 35,486 units, surging 136.0% year-on-year and 70.6% month-on-month. XPENG-W delivered 27,415 vehicles, which was a decrease of 17.4% compared to the previous year but an increase of 79.7% from February. The rebound observed in some automaker stocks during March is seen primarily as a technical recovery from oversold conditions following a period of low sentiment and valuations. The sustainability of order recovery and the delivery of financial results in upcoming earnings reports remain key focus areas. The main points from Everbright Securities are as follows.
Tesla's Q1 2026 Deliveries Show Continued Weakness Tesla's global deliveries for the first quarter of 2026 reached 358,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% but a sequential decline of 14.4%. Deliveries of the Model 3 and Model Y specifically increased 5.6% year-on-year but fell 15.9% from the previous quarter to 342,000 units. The lower-than-expected delivery figures are mainly due to heightened global competition and the reduction of EV subsidies in the US market.
March Sees Sequential Recovery in New Energy Vehicle Sales 1) LI AUTO-W reported March deliveries of 41,053 units, up 11.9% year-on-year and 55.4% month-on-month. 2) NIO-SW delivered 35,486 vehicles in March, a significant increase of 136.0% year-on-year and 70.6% month-on-month. This included 22,490 vehicles for the NIO brand (up 120.1% year-on-year, 48.4% month-on-month), 6,877 units for the Ledao brand (up 42.7% year-on-year, 130.7% month-on-month), and 6,119 units for the Firefly brand (up 130.3% month-on-month). 3) XPENG-W's March deliveries totaled 27,415 vehicles, down 17.4% compared to the same period last year but up 79.7% from February.
Wave of New Model Launches Tesla: The delivery lead time for the domestically produced Model 3 lineup has shortened to 3-5 weeks (compared to 1-3 weeks in March), while the lead time for the Model Y has extended to 2-4 weeks (vs. 1-3 weeks previously). The Model Y L maintains a lead time of 1-3 weeks. The Model 3 lineup continues to offer a limited-time insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan plus an ultra-low interest financing policy for 7 years. The Model Y lineup continues its 7-year ultra-low interest financing policy, and the Model Y L maintains a 5-year zero-interest financing offer.
New Automakers: 1) LI AUTO: The L6 model maintains a delivery lead time of 1-3 weeks, the MEGA maintains 1-4 weeks, and the i8 maintains 2-4 weeks. The L8's lead time has shortened to 1-3 weeks (vs. 2-4 weeks in March). The delivery lead time for the i6 model with a CATL battery has shortened significantly to 4-6 weeks (vs. 19-22 weeks in March), while the version with a Sunwoda battery maintains a 2-4 week lead time. Purchase subsidies for the L series and i8 models continued in March, while the MEGA offer was expanded to include a 5-year zero-interest plan, and a new 3-year zero-interest offer was added for the i6. 2) NIO: Delivery lead times for the ES6, EC6, EC7, and ET9 remain at 4-6 weeks. The ET5 and ET5T maintain lead times of 2-6 weeks. The lead time for the new ES8 has shortened to 3-4 weeks (vs. 4-5 weeks in March), and the ET7's lead time has shortened to 3-5 weeks (vs. 4-6 weeks). The lead time for the Firefly Zizai and Faguang editions has extended to 3-4 weeks (vs. 2-3 weeks). The Firefly Millennium Wave special edition was launched on March 20th with a lead time of 1-2 weeks. NIO, Ledao, and Firefly brands continue to offer a 7-year low-interest financing scheme. 3) XPENG: The 2026 all-electric version of the X9, the G6 Super Range Extension version, and new P7 models were officially launched in March. The G6 and G7 maintain delivery lead times of 1-3 weeks, the G9 maintains 1-5 weeks, the P7+ maintains 1-4 weeks, and the Mona M03 maintains 1-4 weeks. The X9's lead time has extended to 1-5 weeks (vs. 1-3 weeks in March). 4) Xiaomi: Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 20,000 vehicles in March. The new-generation SU7 was launched on March 19th with a delivery lead time of 5-10 weeks. The YU7 maintains a lead time of 7-14 weeks, while the lead time for the SU7 Ultra has shortened to 9-12 weeks (vs. 10-13 weeks in March). In April, Xiaomi continues a limited-time 7-year low-interest offer for the YU7. 5) Huawei: The Stelios Z7, Z7T, and AITO M6 began pre-sales on March 23rd. The Z7 and Z7T are positioned as a coupe and a shooting brake, respectively, while the AITO M6 is a mid-to-large SUV aimed at filling the market gap between the M5 and M7 models.
Focus on Order Sustainability and Upcoming Earnings, Plus Robotics/AI and Power Themes 1) The rebound in some automaker stocks in March is viewed mainly as a technical recovery from oversold levels after a period of weak sentiment and low valuations. The market will continue to focus on the sustainability of order recovery and the delivery of promised financial results in upcoming reports. 2) Tesla did not release the third-generation Optimus humanoid robot as anticipated in Q1 2026; a formal launch is now expected potentially in April, making this a theme to watch for potential catalysts. 3) Attention is also on investment opportunities within the internal combustion engine supply chain, driven by concerns about power shortages related to AI development.
Automaker Recommendations: GEELY AUTO and NIO-SW are recommended. Tesla Motors and XPENG-W are suggested for monitoring.
Components Recommendations: 1) Traditional Supply Chain: FUYAO GLASS is recommended. 2) Humanoid Robots: TOP GROUP is recommended. Companies such as JONSONN, SILING, and SHUANGLIN are suggested for monitoring. 3) Internal Combustion Engine: Companies including WEICHAI, YINLUN, AICOLAN, TIANRUN, and ZHONGYUAN are suggested for monitoring.
Risk Warning Policy fluctuations; supply chain disruptions worse than expected; industry demand falling short of expectations; production ramp-up delays.
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