DoorDash: Rapidly Growing And Expanding, But Fairly Priced Already

seekingalpha2021-04-08

Summary DoorDash's business model is expanding at a rapid clip and adopting new verticals to service more merchants. DoorDash is clearly a growth story backed by an impressive growth profile, where ...

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Comments

MinkyHuat
2021-04-08
MinkyHuat
Like and comment please
- LHJarsenal:
  [微笑]
Rocketupup
2021-04-08
Rocketupup
like and comment pls
- Joyh:
  Ok
- linereps:
  ?
- 3SPY:
  Response to this comment pls
Egging
2021-04-08
Egging
Like n comment people!
- linereps:
  ?
- Joyh:
  Ok
J5385
2021-04-08
J5385
like n comment
- babypink:
  please like and comment!
- Joyh:
  Ok
- linereps:
  ?

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It has two main offerings, Marketplace and Drive, but it's already expanding into new verticals.\nIts top-line has grown at a terrific pace for several quarters and taken substantial market share away from its peers.\nOn the other hand, investors are being asked to pay 11x forward sales, which is close to fairly valued, as DoorDash comes up against tough comps with 2020, particularly as the economy starts to open up.\nWhat's DoorDash? Why Should I Care?\nDoorDash's goal is to break down the friction between local merchants and consumers. DoorDash enables local businesses that lack the capabilities to reach consumers and deliver to them off-premise and on-demand.\nPresently, DoorDash has two main verticals, Marketplace (which includes Pickup and DoorDash for Work) and Drive, as well as, a smaller nascent vertical, Storefront.\nMarketplace offers customer acquisition, fulfillment services, delivery, payment processing, and customer support.\nDrive is DoorDash's white-label logistics service. It allows merchants such as Chipotle (CMG) to reach consumers off-premise via DoorDash's logistics platform.\nAlso, DoorDash is also making some progress with its Storefront offering where it enables merchants to set up a website very easily. This will at some point end up going head to head with the likes of Shopify (SHOP) or others. The concept being that Storefront enables local restaurants to reach more consumers via an online presence and DoorDash to make the food delivery (and take a cut) or for the restaurant to accept pickup (at no cost to the restaurant).\nSource: Shareholder letter\nAs you can see above, DoorDash's two main business units are both reporting healthy growth. Indeed, at the present rate, by Q4 2021, DoorDash's Drive is likely to start becoming a meaningful contributor to top-line growth rates.\nWhat's insightful about DoorDash's Drive is that a substantial portion of its growth is coming from non-restaurant stores, including grocery and convenience stores.\nSource: author's calculations; SEC filing, shareholder letter\nDoorDash doesn't guide for the year in terms of revenues, instead, it guides for gross order value (''GOV'').\nDuring the earnings call, there were a lot of discussions about price controls and the impact on DoorDash's business model going forward.\nThese price controls started in earnest within Q4 2020, with many jurisdictions putting price controls to cap just how much commission the likes of DoorDash can make.\nThis has reduced the company's take rate to below 12% and it will probably reduce further as 2021 progress. For their part, DoorDash contends that this impact is minimal and that where possible it's passing the cost onto the consumer.\nHaving said that, this is not really impacting DoorDash's growth rates too much, as management points to a net impact on revenue from the price controls being 44 basis points (0.44%) during Q4 2020.\nGiven that DoorDash was up more than 260% y/y, you can clearly see this is a non-event in the grand scheme of things.\nPath to Profits Already Established\nSource: Shareholder Letter\nShockingly, for all the narrative around gaining market share against Grubhub (GRUB) and Postmates (POSTM), and even Uber (UBER), DoorDash is also able to generate free cash flow. Specifically, for 2020, DoorDash generated $93 million of free cash flow.\nThis is solid evidence that DoorDash's business model is economically viable and at the right valuation, it would be a compelling investment opportunity.\nValuation -- Fairly Priced For This Investor\nAs you can imagine, trying to figure out what DoorDash's growth rates will be in 2021 is very difficult.\nSource: Shareholder letter\nYou have to assume that DoorDash will continue to expand into new verticals, that it continues to gain market share, and that its more mature cohorts continue to drive increased revenues to DoorDash's platform.\nOn the other hand, we must counterbalance that as the economy starts to reopen, more and more customers will return to dining out, an activity that has been restricted for a long time now.\nMoreover, you have to keep in mind the difficulty DoorDash will have when it comes to lapping its very strong 2020 growth rates which saw more than 170% y/y in every quarter of 2020.\nWall Street analysts for their part are largely expecting that DoorDash's growth rates will dramatically decelerate and only post 30% y/y growth to approximately $3.7 billion in revenues.\nOn the other hand, it wouldn't be unreasonable to conclude that analysts are being too bearish on this stock, given that DoorDash itself is guiding for about $3.5 billion in revenues from just its Marketplace offering -- if weassumeapproximately 11.5% take rate.\nYou are then still left with DoorDash's Drive being a contributor towards its topline growth rates and whatever DoorDash's Storefront generates on top, too.\nThe Bottom Line\nPresently, investors are being asked to pay about 11x forward sales for DoorDash, which is not too expensive. However, I don't see too much upside to make it worthwhile the risk of getting involved with the stock right now. But would be willing to reconsider DoorDash at a different valuation with some more visibility further into 2021.\nParticularly once the economy is up and running once again. Stay tuned for updates.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":348917412,"gmtCreate":1617879284436,"gmtModify":1704704270947,"author":{"id":"3579773534390380","authorId":"3579773534390380","name":"MinkyHuat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b1cf6156deff63311641652347a340","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3579773534390380","authorIdStr":"3579773534390380"},"htmlText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment please&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment 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people!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/348904574","repostId":1134197111,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3986651,"gmtCreate":1617876630061,"gmtModify":1680783302404,"authorId":3571046202315678,"author":{"id":3571046202315678,"idStr":"3571046202315678","authorId":3571046202315678,"name":"linereps","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d348014f82002028e364ade841b3433","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 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