According to Woofun AI, financial data firm Glassnode released its weekly report on the 28th, noting that Bitcoin (BTC) encountered significant resistance at the $85,000 mark, with the market continuing its range-bound trading pattern.
Although ETF demand shows signs of weakening, selling by holders for stop-loss purposes has decreased, overall volatility has dropped sharply, and the market has entered a critical game-theory phase under low volatility. The sluggish ETF fund flows and changes in the spot market cost structure form the core backdrop of the current price stalemate.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $653 million in inflows on October 19, but most of that capital quickly flowed out, with $540 million withdrawn on the 22nd alone, leaving net inflows over the past two weeks at just $67 million. Trading activity has also been weak, with average daily volume for these ETFs at about $1.3 billion since May, while the rolling daily average volume had fallen to about $700 million as of the 23rd.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that BTC's price is currently slightly below the average holding cost of spot ETFs (approximately $81,500), and at this level the incremental demand from ETFs is almost negligible. The "true market mean," which reflects the average holding cost of active investors, is approximately $77,900. Although prices fell significantly twice in October, they have not broken below this level. BTC rose above $87,000 twice in late September and early October but subsequently pulled back.
Currently, about 4.3% of BTC is held between $84,000 and $85,000, a range to which prices have been pulled back four times this year. Since the September rebound, BTC's daily closing price has exceeded $85,000 on only 5 days, with the longest consecutive streak above that level being 3 days. If the daily closing price can consistently remain above this level, the price point could potentially shift from resistance to support.
The divergence in holder behavior further complicates the market, with long-term selling pressure and short-term support coexisting. Long-term holders who have held for more than 155 days possess approximately 4 million BTC, with most of their purchase prices between $85,000 and $118,000, and more than half bought above the current price. Glassnode believes that once prices recover to near $85,000, selling to break even may occur. In contrast, short-term holders' average purchase price is approximately $75,800, concentrated around $77,000, with many positions also near $64,000 — levels that tend to serve as buying support.
On Binance's spot order book, approximately $42 million in buy orders are concentrated between $78,000 and $79,000, viewed as a potential buying zone. Since August, holders' realized losses during price declines have been shrinking: during August's low-price phase, daily realized losses exceeded realized profits by about $630 million; but when prices fell sharply on October 24, daily net realized losses amounted to at most about $27 million. This indicates that the number of holders choosing to stop out is decreasing.
However, realized gains and losses are calculated based on position changes. On October 22, individual accounts transferring BTC between different wallets caused realized profit and loss figures to spike significantly. Excluding such transactions, daily realized profits this week were approximately $260 million, only half of the level during the week of September's price peak. If realized losses rise again during the next decline, it would indicate more sellers entering the market.
The comparison of macro volatility and anomalies in the derivatives market reveal deeper structural changes. The "1-month realized volatility," calculated by annualizing daily price fluctuations over the past month, has dropped to approximately 25%, close to levels seen in the summer of 2023; since 2015, periods with volatility below this level have accounted for only about 5% of the total. The current trend is quite similar to 2023, with volatility gradually declining after a strong rebound from a cycle low and an overheated altcoin market. This year, BTC began rebounding after its June low, and after the altcoin market peaked in early October, price volatility stabilized.
Glassnode had originally expected that a Federal Reserve rate decision in a low-volatility environment might trigger the next round of volatility, but at the meeting on the 28th, the Fed still maintained the policy rate at 3.75% to 4.00%. Meanwhile, on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, the "HIP-3" perpetual futures market for stocks, indices, and commodities has seen active trading, with average daily volume of approximately $2.6 billion in the most recent week, exceeding the exchange's BTC perpetual futures average daily volume (approximately $2.4 billion).
HIP-3 volume exceeded BTC perpetual futures by more than 3 times in early August, but after a "short squeeze" occurred, it fell to about half later that same month, and has since recovered. Among the most actively traded instruments are SK Hynix (SKHY.US) stock, the S&P 500 index, the tech stock index, and crude oil. If BTC perpetual futures volume remains stable while stock and commodity-related instrument volume continues to grow, speculative capital may still prefer the stock market.
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