SmartHK Early Brief | Global Mining Stocks May Kick Off New Supercycle, Gold and Silver Continue Record Highs

Stock News07:54

Global mining stocks are soaring and may be initiating a new supercycle. According to a media report on the 24th, global mining stocks have been placed at the top of fund managers' must-buy lists. The MSCI Global Metals and Mining Index has surged nearly 90% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming popular sectors such as semiconductors, banking stocks, and the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, becoming one of the best-performing asset classes this year. Not only has the price of copper skyrocketed by 50% over the same period, but prices for various other metals including aluminum, silver, nickel, and platinum have also broadly increased. Fund flows clearly corroborate this trend: Bank of America's monthly survey shows that European fund managers' net overweight position in the mining sector has reached 26%, hitting a four-year high. The report points out that the recent performance of mining stocks stands in stark contrast to the cold shoulder they received in previous years. The driving force behind this shift is that the correlation of commodities like copper and aluminum with the economic cycle is weakening: these commodities, once viewed as "short-cycle trading plays" dictated by the pace of global economic growth, are gradually evolving into "structural investment assets." Beyond traditional industrial demand, new pillars of demand for key minerals like copper and aluminum have emerged from AI data centers, the proliferation of electric vehicles, and the expansion of the robotics industry. Investors are allocating to metals to participate in long-term themes like AI, leading to a flood of bargain-hunting buyers whenever weak data hits mining stocks. Michael Wu, Research Strategist at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne, stated, "Mining stocks have transformed from a dull defensive sector into a strategic anchor point capable of navigating both monetary policy shifts and geopolitical volatility."

The three major US stock indices closed mixed on Friday, with Intel (INTC.US) plummeting over 17%, while gold and silver continued to reach new record highs. Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 285.3 points, or 0.58%, to close at 49,098.71. The S&P 500 index edged up 2.26 points, or 0.03%, to finish at 6,915.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 65.22 points, or 0.28%, to settle at 23,501.61. For the week, the Dow lost 0.53%, the Nasdaq declined 0.06%, and the S&P 500 dipped 0.35%. Technology stocks were mixed; Microsoft and Netflix rose over 3%, while Intel plunged more than 17%, marking its largest single-day drop since August 2024. The precious metals sector led the gains, with U.S. Gold climbing over 9% and Pan American Silver advancing more than 4%. Popular Chinese stocks were also mixed; the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.26%, with XPeng falling over 3%. The Hang Seng Index ADR declined proportionally, closing at 26,719.08 points, down 30.43 points or 0.11% from the Hong Kong close. COMEX Gold futures for the front month contract rose $69.70, or 1.42%, to $4,983.1 per ounce. COMEX Silver futures for the front month contract surged $6.89, or 7.15%, to $103.26 per ounce. Spot gold increased by $52.23, or 1.06%, to $4,988.6 per ounce. Spot silver jumped $7.02, or 7.30%, to $103.2 per ounce.

Economists warn that the Greenland agreement is unlikely to mend the rift between the US and Europe, and the dollar's status faces threats. Economists note that while US President Trump announced a framework agreement on Greenland this week, it does not resolve the widening fissure between the US and its former allies. Last week, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on eight European countries, including Germany, France, the UK, and Denmark, following a joint military exercise they conducted in Greenland, and he has intensified rhetoric this month about taking control of the island. Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows the US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%, a multi-decade low. A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that a significant 95% of central banks expect to continue buying gold in the future. This is interpreted by the market as using physical assets with "no sovereign credit risk" to hedge against deep-seated anxieties about the credibility of the US dollar. A German lawmaker has called for the repatriation of over 1,200 tons of gold from the US. According to a German media report on the 23rd, German lawmaker Strack-Zimmermann urged the federal government to bring Germany's gold reserves stored in the US back home. She stated that storing approximately 37% of Germany's gold reserves in New York is no longer reasonable amid heightened global uncertainty and unpredictable US policies. For decades, Germany has stored over 1,200 tons of gold in vaults at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in Manhattan. Currently, about half of Germany's gold is held in vaults in its own financial center, Frankfurt, with another 13% stored in London. The US will invest $1.6 billion in a rare earths group to strengthen critical mineral supplies. Media reports indicate the Trump administration plans to inject $1.6 billion into a US rare earths company, marking its largest investment in the sector and the latest move by Washington to bolster supplies of critical minerals. According to informed sources, the US government will acquire a 10% stake in US Rare Earths Inc., a company headquartered in Oklahoma that controls significant US reserves of heavy rare earth elements. The government investment and an additional $1 billion private financing deal are expected to be announced on Monday. One source mentioned the government will receive 16.1 million shares of US Rare Earths Inc., along with 17.6 million warrants, both at a purchase price of $17.17 per share. The government agreed to pay $277 million for this equity, representing an implied gain of $490 million based on the current share price of $24.77.

Axera Technology has passed the Hong Kong exchange hearing and is poised to become the "first Chinese edge AI chip stock." Axera Technology Semiconductor Co., Ltd. passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange listing hearing on January 25 and plans a main board listing, potentially becoming the "first Chinese edge AI chip stock." The company specializes in edge AI chip design, leveraging its self-developed core technologies like AI-ISP and mixed-precision NPU. Its products are widely used in smart vehicles, edge computing, and other fields. According to an industry report, in 2024 it captured a 24.1% global market share in mid-to-high-end visual edge-side AI inference chips, ranking first, and has grown to become China's second-largest domestic supplier of smart assisted driving chips. With the rapid development of the edge computing market, the company is accelerating its layout to promote the large-scale implementation of AI technology. ZIJIN MINING (02899): The Phase II project of the Julong Copper Mine has officially commenced operation, set to become China's largest copper mine. ZIJIN MINING (02899) announced that on January 23, 2026, the Phase II project of its Julong Copper Mine was officially completed and began production. Building upon the existing 15,000 tonnes per day mining and processing capacity, the Julong Copper Mine will add a new production scale of 20,000 tonnes per day, forming a total production capacity of 35,000 tonnes per day. Ark Health (06086): Expects 2025 net profit of approximately RMB 70 million to RMB 100 million, turning profitable year-on-year. Ark Health announced on the Hong Kong exchange that based on a preliminary review of the company's unaudited consolidated management accounts for the year ended December 31, 2025, it expects revenue for the reporting period to be between approximately RMB 3.50 billion and RMB 3.55 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of about 30.0%. It expects to record a net profit of approximately RMB 70 million to RMB 100 million for the reporting period, a significant turnaround from a pre-tax net loss of RMB 855 million in the same period last year. The expected revenue growth is primarily due to the continued growth of the company's consumer-facing business segment. MINIEYE (02431): Secures new smart driving project nomination with total order value exceeding RMB 1.3 billion. MINIEYE announced on the Hong Kong exchange that the company recently received a project nomination notice from a renowned automaker. According to the notice, the company will develop and supply a series of advanced smart driving products for the client's wide range of vehicle models targeting both domestic and international markets. Based on the client's plan, the total lifecycle order value for the aforementioned project is estimated to be over RMB 1.3 billion, with mass production scheduled to commence in mid-2026. China Merchants Bank (03968) released its 2025 annual performance快报, reporting a net profit of RMB 150.181 billion, up 1.21% year-on-year. China Merchants Bank (03968) released its 2025 annual performance快报. In 2025, the Group's various businesses developed steadily, with overall operations in good condition. In 2025, the Group achieved operating revenue of RMB 337.532 billion, an increase of RMB 44 million or 0.01% compared to the previous year; total profit was RMB 178.993 billion, an increase of RMB 341 million or 0.19%; net profit attributable to the Bank's shareholders was RMB 150.181 billion, an increase of RMB 1.790 billion or 1.21%. Everbright Securities (06178) reported 2025 net profit attributable to parents of RMB 3.729 billion, up 21.92% year-on-year. Everbright Securities (06178) announced that the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 10.863 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.18%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB 3.729 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.92%; basic earnings per share were RMB 0.73. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (01385) expects 2025 revenue to be approximately RMB 3.93 billion to RMB 4.03 billion, an increase of about 9.46% to 12.25% year-on-year. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics (01385) announced that based on a preliminary review and analysis of the Group's most recent unaudited management accounts for the full year ended December 31, 2025, (1) expected revenue is approximately RMB 3.93 billion to RMB 4.03 billion, compared to approximately RMB 3.59 billion in the same period last year, representing an increase of RMB 340 million to RMB 440 million, or an approximate increase of 9.46% to 12.25%.

CMOC (03993): Acquisition of gold mine project completed. CMOC announced that the company, through its controlling subsidiary, has completed the acquisition of 100% interests in the Aurizona Gold Mine, RDM Gold Mine, and Bahia integrated mining area from the Canadian listed company Equinox Gold Corp. Given that all conditions precedent under the agreement have been satisfied or waived, this acquisition was completed on January 23, 2026, Beijing time. The gold mine assets involved in this transaction collectively contain total gold resources of 5.013 million ounces, with an average grade of 1.88 g/t; and gold reserves of 3.873 million ounces, with an average grade of 1.45 g/t. The company believes these gold mine resources are substantial, with well-established infrastructure and mature mineral processing technology, offering strong profitability. The acquisition is expected to immediately contribute production and profit, with a short expected investment payback period and favorable economic returns. The projected annualized gold production for 2026 is 6-8 tonnes, which will actively contribute to achieving the company's gold production targets and further bolster its resource reserves.

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