On the 28th, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice adjusting the trading margin level for its silver deferred contract to 20% and the price fluctuation limit to 19%. Additionally, the Shanghai Futures Exchange also adjusted the price limit bands and trading margin ratios for related futures contracts on gold, silver, nickel, and others. As the US dollar index continues to decline, the international gold price has risen for seven consecutive trading sessions, successively breaking through the $5,000, $5,100, $5,200, and $5,300 per ounce marks. Facing the surge in precious metals and continuous capital inflows, domestic financial institutions are strengthening risk controls and investor risk warnings. Besides the SGE and SHFE, the CME Group issued a notice on the 27th, local time, adjusting the margin parameters for some silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts. Among these adjustments, the new margin ratio for some silver contracts is higher than previous levels, approximately 11% of the nominal value. Precious metals and non-ferrous metals markets continue to "attract capital." On January 28, the price of gold futures on the COMEX in New York broke through the historic $5,300 per ounce mark during the session. Domestically, the gold price approached 1,200 yuan per gram, with an intraday increase of 3.6%, marking the largest gain so far in 2026. Non-ferrous metal futures maintained an overall upward trend, with the weighted Shanghai aluminum contract rising notably by 5.62%. That day, multiple stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Sichuan Gold, Hunan Gold, and China Gold hit the daily upside limit, while Xiaocheng Technology surged over 20%; the precious metals sector overall gained 6.85%. The Gold Stock ETF (159562), often called the "gold price amplifier," rose 9.25% that day, accumulating a 50.38% gain over the 18 trading days of the year so far, including 11 consecutive days of net capital inflows totaling over 2.9 billion yuan. On that day, nearly 4.7 billion yuan flowed into precious metals on the futures market, with Shanghai gold attracting 4.4 billion yuan, bringing its total settled funds to 141.3 billion yuan and continuing to lead the market. The non-ferrous metals sector attracted 6.1 billion yuan, with Shanghai aluminum, rising strongly, receiving over 3.3 billion yuan in capital support, and an additional 1.9 billion yuan flowing into Shanghai nickel. The SHFE issued a notice on the 28th stating that, starting from the close of settlement on Friday, January 30, 2026, the price fluctuation limits for several gold contracts will be adjusted to 16%, and the general margin requirement to 18%. Furthermore, the price fluctuation limits for several silver contracts will be adjusted to 16%, and the general margin requirement to 17%. Additionally, the price limit for nickel will be adjusted to 11%, with the general position trading margin ratio adjusted to 13%; the price limits for listed contracts on alumina, lead, and zinc futures will be adjusted to 9%, with the general position trading margin ratio adjusted to 11%. Banks are further raising the investment threshold for gold. As international gold prices repeatedly刷新历史新高, banks have begun taking steps to control risks by raising the thresholds for retail gold account services and personal gold accumulation plans. Currently, several banks including China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank have raised their business thresholds to above 1,200 yuan per gram and strengthened investor suitability management; the nature of gold accumulation services is shifting from a "stable savings alternative" to a "high-volatility risk asset." On January 27, China Merchants Bank announced adjustments to its retail gold account business, effective February 2, raising the minimum subscription amount for both gold account current and fixed investment plans to 1,200 yuan. Back in November 2025, China Construction Bank had already adjusted the starting point for monthly accumulation amounts to 1,200 yuan, increasing in multiples of 10 yuan. China CITIC Bank adjusted the minimum fixed investment amount for its regular quota plan from 1,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan. Beyond raising thresholds, investor suitability management is also being strengthened. Since 2025, several banks including China CITIC Bank, Bank of Ningbo, and Zhongyuan Bank have successively taken similar measures, raising the access level for gold-related services to C3 (Balanced Type) or its equivalent, reflecting the banking sector's efforts to enhance risk warnings and investor protection against the backdrop of high volatility in the gold market. Entering 2026, more banks have joined this trend. On January 6, ICBC announced it would adjust the risk tolerance level required for its personal gold accumulation business, raising it from the previous "assessment result of C1 - Conservative type or above" to "assessment result of C3 - Balanced type or above." On January 26, ABC issued an announcement stating that starting January 30, personal clients applying for its Gold Accumulation Plan services (including Plan 1 and Plan 2) for signing up, buying, or setting up fixed investments must undergo a risk assessment via the application channel. Renowned institutions further raise price expectations. Looking ahead, industry insiders point out that a further decline in the US dollar index will be a key factor driving gold prices higher. Currently, the dollar index has fallen to around 95, hitting a new low since mid-February 2022. Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Cambridge Global Payments, stated that as the US continues its tariff policies and faces potential government "shutdown," economic policy uncertainty has significantly increased again, leading to the sustained decline of the dollar index. Two well-known institutions, Citibank and Royal Bank of Canada, have raised their future price expectations for gold and silver. Citi Investment Research raised its target price for silver from the previous $100 per ounce to $150 per ounce. A Citibank report stated, "We expect bullish factors to remain in place in the near term, supporting strong investment and speculative demand, and potentially leading to further tightening of physical supply in major trading centers outside the US." The latest analysis from RBC Capital Markets believes the upward momentum for gold is far from peaking. The bank previously projected in a scenario analysis that gold prices would reach around $5,200 per ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, but the current extremely turbulent uncertainty environment combined with broad USD weakness has significantly accelerated the upward trajectory. Historical averages suggest this rally could continue until September or even December this year. Gold prices accumulated a gain of approximately 65% in 2025. If 2026 maintains a similar rate of increase, extrapolating the trend suggests year-end prices could reach as high as $7,100 per ounce.
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