Bank of America Securities has issued a research report stating that MENGNIU DAIRY (02319) has high earnings visibility through 2026, making it a top pick among Chinese consumer stocks. The firm expects net profit to reach RMB 4.861 billion in 2026, rising further to RMB 5.43 billion in 2027, returning to historical highs. The bank has raised its earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and increased the target price from HK$20 to HK$21, reaffirming a "Buy" rating. According to the report, Mengniu's management anticipates mid-single-digit year-on-year revenue growth for the current year under a baseline scenario. In the first quarter, both the group and its liquid milk business achieved high-single-digit growth, with premium product growth exceeding 10%. While management currently prioritizes revenue growth and has cautiously set the operating profit margin target at a flat level, there is potential for upward revision in the future. With raw milk prices bottoming out and a reduction in raw milk write-offs (estimated at RMB 469 million for 2025), profits for the current year are expected to increase by over RMB 1 billion.
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