The international gold price staged a significant rebound and closed higher in the previous trading session on Thursday, July 2nd. Optimistic negotiation prospects and a surprisingly weak U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls report led markets to bet on a delay in interest rate hikes until year-end, boosting gold's strength. This move validated the anticipated bottoming and recovery scenario as expected, with the short-term trend expected to continue strengthening, warranting a bullish approach.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,035.94 per ounce, initially recording a daily low of $4,030.65. It then experienced sustained narrow-range fluctuations and a gradual rise, extending into the U.S. market open where bullish momentum rapidly surged, touching a daily high of $4,143.82. Subsequently, the upward momentum weakened, and prices consolidated in a range-bound adjustment, ultimately closing at $4,123.40. The daily range was $113.17, with a gain of $87.46, representing a 2.17% increase.
Looking ahead to Friday, July 3rd, the international gold price opened with initial narrow fluctuations. The U.S. dollar index and crude oil prices halted their declines in early trading, capping gold's upside. However, the dollar index's rebound is approaching resistance at the 200-week moving average, and its weekly chart is poised to form a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting a potential top and subsequent weakness, which would be favorable for gold. Crude oil remains in a weak trend and poses limited pressure on gold until it reclaims a position above its 200-day moving average. The short-term outlook for gold maintains an expectation of halted declines and a bullish bias.
There are no key data or events to focus on during the day. Precious metals markets will close early due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Consequently, trading activity is likely to be cautious ahead of the holiday, with increased position adjustments. However, price movements are expected to continue reflecting the impact of Thursday's Non-Farm Payrolls data, suggesting intraday activity will likely be dominated by consolidation or continued recovery.
On the fundamental front, while overall bearish factors have weakened, the Non-Farm Payrolls data itself presented a mixed picture. It did not force the Federal Reserve to immediately shift towards an accommodative monetary policy. A lower unemployment rate suggests that corporate layoffs remain relatively limited, and the labor market has not yet sent a comprehensive recession signal. Therefore, market expectations for the timing of Fed rate hikes have merely been pushed further back, not eliminated.
Furthermore, the shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not been completely resolved. Market tensions have eased somewhat but have not fully dissipated. Shipping in the strait is currently operating under a new normal of low volatility and low volume, rather than having the bottleneck of shipping risks completely removed.
Simultaneously, the upcoming U.S. inflation data scheduled for release on July 14th will become the core reference for subsequent Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments. As the overall situation has not yet shown a clear and sustained shift, the current rebound in gold prices should still be viewed as a phased one.
From a technical perspective, on a monthly chart, gold formed a bearish candlestick for June, indicating stable selling pressure. This suggests the potential for a further decline towards the support of the Bollinger Band middle line around $3,820 in July, or even lower. However, there is currently no strong inclination for further declines, and the price action shows signs of halting its fall near this support level. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands are showing signs of contraction, hinting that prices may consolidate within a broad sideways range of $4,500 to $3,600 over the coming months before resuming an upward climb.
On the weekly chart, gold has formed several consecutive candlesticks indicating consolidation or bottoming reversal patterns in recent weeks, suggesting an upcoming period of sustained recovery. However, until prices reclaim a level above $4,500, the risk of another corrective pullback remains. Therefore, the current trading strategy involves initially taking a phased bullish view. A break above $4,500 could strengthen the bullish case. On the downside, support around the 100-week moving average should be monitored. A further retreat to test this level would also present a good opportunity to re-enter long positions.
On the daily chart, gold has been consolidating and forming a base after touching horizontal support and the support line of the ascending trend channel originating in 2024. It has now begun to strengthen and rebound, with a short-term tendency to recover towards the $4,300-$4,400 range. Support from short-term moving averages and the early-week horizontal consolidation zone should be watched for potential long entries.
For specific intraday real-time trading guidance, refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are for reference only. Specific entry and exit points are subject to live account notifications:
Gold: Monitor support near $4,090 or $4,070; watch resistance near $4,160 or $4,200.
Silver: Monitor support near $60.40 or $59.90; watch resistance near $60.45 or $63.30.
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