The biopharmaceutical community was abuzz on the evening of May 31st with the latest data from AKESO (09926.HK). The data showed that its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody (Ivonescimab) combined with chemotherapy outperformed PD-1 inhibitor combined with chemotherapy. One excited investor remarked, "This isn't just winning the World Cup final; it's a decisive victory over teams like Brazil, Argentina, and Spain." The spotlight was on AKESO in Chicago as its HARMONi-6 study data became the first Chinese-origin novel drug research to be presented in the plenary session of the American Society of Clinical Oncology annual meeting, a premier global oncology conference.
The Chinese innovative drug sector set multiple records at the 2026 ASCO, with the number of Chinese projects selected for Late-Breaking Abstracts increasing from 2 in 2023 to 13, and over 90 oral presentations, a historic high. However, the market reaction was not positive. On June 1st, AKESO's stock initially surged over 12% at open but then reversed course, declining for three consecutive days. By the close on June 5th, its market capitalization stood at HKD 86.2 billion, having lost over HKD 10 billion in value within days. During the same period, nearly all Chinese companies presenting at ASCO saw their stock prices fall, with about 12 firms dropping over 10% in three days. CStone Pharmaceuticals (02616.HK) alone fell 32.42% on June 1st. Despite a months-long correction in the innovative drug sector, many investors were still taken aback, having expected the strong ASCO data to boost share prices.
Initial Market Reaction and Underlying Factors
Several interviewees pointed out that the stock market decline may have been directly influenced by capital flow dynamics. Furthermore, the extent to which the clinical data constitutes a positive catalyst remains debated. A seat at the academic table does not automatically translate into commercial value. For the industry to develop healthily, more innovative drugs need to genuinely go global and prove their worldwide worth.
A Closer Look at the Accolade
"The last time I was this nervous was the night before the college entrance exam," commented one industry researcher on social media on May 31st, describing a rapid heartbeat after waiting all day for the HARMONi-6 data. This China-based Phase III trial compared Ivonescimab plus chemotherapy versus tislelizumab (a domestic PD-1 drug) plus chemotherapy for first-line treatment of advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer. The data showed a median overall survival of 27.9 months for the treatment group versus 23.7 for the control, with a hazard ratio of 0.66, indicating a 34% reduction in the risk of death.
In AKESO's narrative, this plenary session data represents a historic breakthrough, a sentiment shared and amplified online. Tang Dajie, founding partner and chairman of Qianzhi Capital, an early investor in AKESO, also expressed strong belief in the company. However, Professor Chen Feng, attending ASCO, did not perceive an overwhelmingly dramatic impact. The presentation was the fourth in the plenary session, followed by a discussion featuring pointed commentary from Professor Julie Brahmer of Johns Hopkins. The session concluded quietly, followed by a pancreatic cancer report from US firm Revolution that, according to Chen Feng, received a standing ovation for doubling median OS.
Chen Feng noted that the 34% OS improvement in HARMONi-6 exceeded many industry observers' expectations, who often view 30% as a significant win. However, some experts had hoped for an even more impressive HR below 0.5. "The achievement itself carries immense weight. But accolades invite scrutiny. As analyst Dr. Daina Graybosch bluntly put it, 'It's absolutely going to get shredded'—that's the risk of entering the plenary session," Chen said. While the data met all endpoints and was statistically positive, interpretation varied. Chinese doctors and investors reacted positively, while some senior欧美 thoracic oncology experts were more reserved, questioning the generalizability of the purely Chinese patient dataset to global populations.
A key point is that HARMONi-6 used tislelizumab as the control, not Keytruda (pembrolizumab), which combined with chemotherapy is the global standard for first-line squamous NSCLC. The global head-to-head comparison of "Ivonescimab + chemo" versus "Keytruda + chemo" is the HARMONi-3 trial, led by AKESO's overseas partner Summit. Chen Feng mentioned that in May 2026, Summit indicated that an interim PFS analysis for the squamous cohort of HARMONi-3 did not meet the statistical threshold, with final analysis expected later in 2026. "This outcome previously dampened optimistic expectations for Ivonescimab's smooth overseas journey, clearly revealing the real challenges of globalization for Chinese innovative drugs," Chen stated. The practical concern lies in global extrapolation: the better AKESO performs in China, the greater the pressure for HARMONi-3 to replicate the data globally; any attenuation would be a hard constraint on valuation.
Tang Dajie believes the released HARMONi-6 data is not final "but at least reflects a very positive trend." At the conference, challenges for Ivonescimab extended beyond the applicability of Chinese data to US populations. According to reports, Julie Brahmer raised questions about patient selection potentially favoring younger patients, a high rate of censoring in survival curves, insufficient follow-up, limited survival benefit in elderly patients, and exclusion of patients with severe vascular invasion. On June 3rd, AKESO issued an open letter to investors addressing "subjective and biased 'expert opinions'" and explaining three major controversies regarding subgroup effects, follow-up time, and inclusion/exclusion criteria.
"China can produce top-tier work, but it hasn't yet established a system for consistently producing such work. Therefore, it's reasonable, not biased, for overseas standards to systematically set a higher bar for evidentiary requirements for Chinese data," Chen Feng said. He suggested four dimensions for objective data evaluation: 1) strength of the control arm; 2) hierarchy of endpoints; 3) generalizability of the population; and 4) performance relative to expectations.
Reasons Behind the Share Price Decline
In the three days post-data release, AKESO's market cap fell over HKD 10 billion. Other ASCO-presenting companies also saw significant declines. Tang Dajie was not surprised. "In recent years, every time AKESO releases data, the secondary market experiences severe volatility. We anticipated this might happen again, as market understanding of the company and data diverges." He noted that compared to the more trend-focused primary market, the secondary market prioritizes certainty and is more risk-averse. After positive news is released, a 'sell-on-news' effect often occurs as capital seeks to avoid risk at relative highs before potentially returning.
Additionally, recent market rumors, including potential US House proposals to limit the use of Chinese clinical data and possible Chinese restrictions on business development deals, though unverified, amplified market risk. Zhou Sicong, a fund manager, believes the fundamentals of China's innovative drug industry are improving, but short-term stock movements are first related to capital flows. He observed massive short-selling on June 1st-2nd, including an unusually large single short order of 20 million shares on June 1st. Zhou also noted that healthcare, being defensive and counter-cyclical, tends to be less favored by capital during strong bull markets. Several interviewees pointed out that as capital concentrates in the tech sector, funds are being drained from other industries, including innovative drugs, affecting their stock performance.
"Capital inevitably considers returns. At this stage, which is more likely to yield returns—investing in healthcare or tech? Funds will unavoidably flow towards those directions first," said Wang Li. She believes long-term holding of healthcare assets requires conviction, whereas current investments are often based on short-term catalysts; once the news is out, prices naturally fall, as the data isn't treated as a long-term holding signal. "Short-term capital mainly trades around data milestones. But valuing an innovative drug company requires more patient tracking of potential future revenue and forming a basis for long-term holding value. Long-term value still requires a long-term profitable asset, at least a 'ballast' in one's portfolio," Wang said.
"You see the stock price falling, but I see its trading volume increasing these days. It means for every seller, there's a buyer," Tang Dajie remarked. He believes effective investment, whether in primary or secondary markets, is counter-cyclical, and his firm has been increasing investments in recent years.
Academic Recognition Versus Commercial Value
After peaking in September 2025, the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index entered a prolonged adjustment phase. Since 2026, aside from a notable rally in mid-to-late March, the index has been on a downward trend for dozens of consecutive days, returning to levels seen around May 2025. Will the innovative drug industry enter another capital winter? Interviewees generally believe not. "The industry will rise in a slow, spiral pattern. Policies, supply, payment—all aspects are optimizing. Having experienced previous cycles, this wave of investors is more mature and rational," Wang Li said.
Chen Feng likened the current situation more to the second half of 2021—a critical point just past the previous peak, where the first wave of consolidation began but most participants still held a 'this time is different' narrative. However, a relatively certain variable has been added: business development transactions, primarily out-licensing deals. "Sharp corrections will occur, but the probability of a repeat of the widespread 2022-2023 funding drought and mass consolidation is lower. This round has support from out-licensing cash flows, policies, and the actual performance ramp-up of some companies," Chen stated.
Zhou Sicong posits that Chinese innovative drugs will have three value leap moments: first, BD deals; second, successful drug development; third, commercialization. ASCO presented many Phase III data, indicating 2026 is the validation stage for drug success. This may be the period of heaviest capital博弈, but only after this validation can companies commercialize and reflect achievements on their financial statements. She expects that by the second half of 2027 or 2028 onwards, the market may move away from hype driven by single events. By then, more innovative drug firms will receive commercialization royalties, making the sector resemble stable-growth consumer stocks, delivering better quarterly reports.
The divergence between industry progress and stock prices post-2026 ASCO illustrates that academic recognition and commercial value operate on different evaluation systems. "Treating a plenary session slot as a verdict on clinical value is typical justification for existing positions," Chen Feng said. "A plenary session report reflects the academic community's recognition of a scientific question's importance, while the capital market endorses commercial returns." He believes that for healthier industry development, effective mechanisms for phasing out落后产能 are needed, along with cultivating long-term capital tolerant of failure rates, and making个案 like AKESO's replicable. "The sign of a良性循环 isn't more plenary session slots; it's having a batch of companies with the willingness and capability to conduct global multi-center trials and truly prove global value—even if they face setbacks like HARMONi-3. That恰恰 demonstrates the industry is engaging in real innovation, competing on value in crowded fields," Chen concluded.
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