The strongest trend in the U.S. stock market over the past few weeks has remained artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have rebounded approximately 11% and 18% from their lows, respectively, with capital flowing back into technology, data centers, and related infrastructure. The critical test arrives next Thursday. After the market closes on Wednesday, April 29 (U.S. time), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Meta Platforms (META.US), and Amazon (AMZN.US) will release their earnings reports in quick succession. Converted to Beijing time, this falls between the early morning and morning of Thursday, April 30. Alphabet's conference call is scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific Time, while Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon's calls are all at 2:30 PM, creating a highly concentrated earnings window.
The recent market rally is not without foundation. These companies continue to increase their investments. Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for this year is between $175 billion and $185 billion; Meta's projected range is $115 billion to $135 billion; Microsoft's capital expenditure last quarter reached $37.5 billion, with about two-thirds allocated to short-cycle assets like GPUs and CPUs; Amazon, in its shareholder letter, directly raised its projected 2026 capital expenditure to approximately $200 billion. The continued influx of capital itself is a key reason the market remains confident to chase the rally.
The primary pressure for Alphabet this quarter lies on the cost side. The company had previously indicated that depreciation growth would accelerate in the first quarter and rise significantly for the full year. Continued high investment is expected; the market is more focused on whether cloud business and AI-related revenues can absorb these costs more quickly. If the earnings report only confirms continued spending, the stock price may not see a major surprise; stabilizing cloud business alongside profit margins would carry much greater significance.
Microsoft faces a different test. With capital expenditure already at $37.5 billion, management still states that demand exceeds supply. This is a strong signal that has also raised market expectations significantly. As long as Azure growth and enterprise demand continue to increase, Microsoft can justify high investment as securing market share early. However, if growth fails to support such substantial spending, market focus will shift from orders to the return周期.
Meta's challenge is the most direct. It possesses the strongest advertising cash flow but also the most aggressive infrastructure investment plan. The company has explicitly stated that 2026 capital expenditure will rise to $115-$135 billion, while full-year operating profit will still be higher than in 2025. With such clear guidance, the market's judgment post-earnings will be swift: can the profitability of the advertising business continue to cover the expansion rate of AI investments?
Amazon's situation differs again. The issue is not just high spending, but that the payoff for much of this investment is projected further out. CEO Andy Jassy made it clear in the shareholder letter that most of the 2026 cloud capital expenditure will gradually materialize in 2027-2028, and the company has already secured significant customer commitments. Meanwhile, AWS added 3.9 gigawatts of power capacity in 2025, with total capacity expected to double by the end of 2027, yet the company still acknowledges capacity constraints and unmet demand. For Amazon's report, the market will pay close attention to management's commentary on customer commitments, capacity ramp-up, and realization timelines. This is a key area to watch next Thursday.
Recently, the market has primarily been trading on "who is still willing to spend big." Now, the scale of investment has become too large to be supported by narrative alone. Once earnings are released, the questions will become more concrete: is revenue growth accelerating further, are orders becoming more visible, and are profit margins and cash flow starting to show pressure? The company that can satisfactorily address all these aspects will solidify its position. Those whose investments remain largely speculative will face greater volatility.
Initially, the impact will be most direct on the four tech giants themselves. Post-earnings, stock prices may be determined less by beats on revenue and EPS, and more by updates to full-year capital expenditure guidance, cloud business growth rates, disclosure of AI-related revenue, and signs of more significant pressure on profit margins. Looking broader, the semiconductor, server, networking equipment, and data center equipment supply chain remains most directly tied to the spending of these giants. Recent divergence between software and chip stocks indicates the market is starting to cluster closer to tangible orders and physical infrastructure within this theme. If the four earnings reports continue to confirm strong demand and capital expenditure intensity, this divergence will likely become more pronounced.
Therefore, next Thursday resembles more of a screening point than a master switch. There is no current evidence suggesting the AI thematic rally is ending, as热度and capital remain. What is more likely is a continued differentiation in internal pricing. Companies with faster realization, firmer orders, and more stable profits will continue to command a premium; companies and segments with high investment and potential, but less clear paths to回报, will experience more pronounced stock price fluctuations.
On earnings day, the most critical details to watch remain specific: will full-year capital expenditure guidance be revised upward again, will cloud business growth rates continue to accelerate, is there clearer disclosure on AI-related revenue, and are there more obvious signs of pressure on profit margins and cash flow? As long as growth and demand remain strong across these four questions, and cost pressures are not明显失控, this trading cycle is not over. Should the market begin recalculating, it would likely start with the most expensive, crowded, and远期-dependent segments first.
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