Zhongtai Securities has initiated coverage on MOBVISTA (HKEX: 01860), issuing a "Buy" rating. The firm is positioned as a leader in the overseas programmatic advertising space, with its in-app purchase (IAP) monetization capabilities poised for release and operational leverage continuing to improve. The broker forecasts the company's revenue for 2026-2028 to reach $2.64 billion, $3.52 billion, and $4.16 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 28.9%, 33.5%, and 18.0%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at $89.8 million, $145.8 million, and $190.0 million, reflecting growth rates of 45.8%, 62.3%, and 30.3%, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.3x, 16.2x, and 12.4x.
Company Overview: A Top Programmatic Player with Accelerating Growth
MOBVISTA is a marketing technology service provider for the overseas mobile app ecosystem. Starting as an ad network, the company pivoted to an AI-driven programmatic platform after 2016 and has expanded into SaaS toolkits since 2020. This has formed a comprehensive service system covering "ad delivery - monetization - data analytics - creative production - optimization and cost reduction." Revenue from its Mintegral programmatic advertising platform has consistently accounted for about 96% of total revenue since 2024. Over 70% of the company's revenue comes from gaming clients, with its traffic reaching over 250 countries and regions. Mintegral has propelled the company into a phase of accelerated performance, with 2025 revenue reaching $2.047 billion, up 35.7% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders surging 291.5% to $62 million. In Q1 2026, net profit continued its strong growth, increasing 60.6% year-on-year, indicating sustained operational efficiency gains.
Industry Analysis: A New App Ecosystem and an Inflection Point for Programmatic Ads
The global mobile advertising and programmatic buying markets remain in a high-growth phase. The global online advertising market is estimated to reach $799 billion in 2025, with mobile advertising accounting for $586.6 billion, or 73% of the total. The global mobile programmatic advertising market is projected to be around $299 billion in 2025, representing 85%-90% of the mobile advertising market. The scale of independent third-party programmatic advertising platforms overseas is accelerating. In the US programmatic market, open web advertising accounts for approximately 29%, providing long-term growth space for independent third-party platforms. AI is further unlocking the supply side of the app ecosystem. AI coding reduces development and operational costs for small and medium-sized apps, while AI multimodal technology is driving the expansion of entertainment content like micro-dramas and casual games. In May 2026, overseas micro-drama app downloads reached 250 million, a year-on-year increase of about 76%. Global mobile advertising material placements in the entertainment sector grew 15% year-on-year, driving simultaneous increases in user acquisition and monetization demand. In terms of competitive landscape, major tech platforms still hold advantages in data and branding. However, increasing advertiser sensitivity to return on ad spend (ROAS) is accelerating the breakout of independent platforms, forming a landscape with AppLovin as a dominant leader and Mintegral, Unity Ads, Liftoff, and Moloco as strong contenders.
Operational Analysis: IAP Monetization Capabilities Imminent
A core focus of the company's monetization capability lies in the emergence of its IAP ROAS performance and the iteration speed of its intelligent bidding system. From 2023 to 2025, the company successively launched Target ROAS products for IAA, IAA+IAP, and IAP, along with Target CPE capabilities. It continued to refine its intelligent bidding product suite throughout 2024, driving Mintegral's revenue to grow 39% quarter-on-quarter and 64% year-on-year in the second half of 2024. Concurrently, the company is accelerating its AI infrastructure upgrade, with cloud expenditure exceeding $100 million for the first time in 2025. The next-generation infrastructure is expected to launch in October 2026, which is anticipated to advance organizational workflows towards higher levels of automation. Regarding the business flywheel, the number of apps integrated with the Mintegral SDK grew from 17,000 to 117,000 between 2022 and 2025, while the number of ad requests from the SDK surged from 16 billion to 148 billion. The company has consistently maintained strategic focus, adhering to a long-term philosophy and technology investment to drive sustainable growth. Its equity incentive targets also demonstrate strong confidence in its development in the auto-pilot era.
Key Risks to Consider
The report highlights several potential risks, including macroeconomic fluctuations and volatility in advertiser budgets; changes in overseas privacy regulations and platform policies; risks associated with traffic resource acquisition and rising costs; intensifying competition in the programmatic advertising industry; risks that algorithm iteration and IAP ROAS effectiveness may fall short of expectations; and risks of third-party data inaccuracies or delays in updates.
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