Abstract
Novartis AG will report quarterly results on February 04, 2026 before-market; this preview consolidates recent segment trends, last quarter’s margins, net profit dynamics, and consensus-style estimates around revenue, EBIT, and EPS derived from the company’s current-quarter forecast.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, Novartis AG’s internal forecast implies revenue of $13.54 billion with year-over-year growth of 5.72%, EBIT of $4.59 billion with year-over-year growth of 7.12%, and EPS of $1.96 with year-over-year growth of 8.26%. The last quarter’s gross profit margin was 75.38% and the net profit margin was 27.36%; the current-quarter forecast does not include explicit margin guidance. The main business portfolio continues to be anchored by Oncology, Immunology, Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolism, Neuroscience, and Established Brands, with indications that core franchises sustain mid-single-digit growth and margin resilience. The most promising segment is Oncology, which generated $4.38 billion last quarter; the company’s pipeline supports continued demand, while recent launches underpin prospective year-over-year momentum.
Last Quarter Review
Novartis AG’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $13.91 billion, a gross profit margin of 75.38%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $3.93 billion, a net profit margin of 27.36%, and adjusted EPS of $2.25, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 9.22% and revenue growth of 8.47%. One notable highlight was disciplined operating execution that modestly beat EBIT expectations, with actual EBIT of $5.46 billion compared to an estimate of $5.32 billion. Segment performance was led by Oncology at $4.38 billion, with Established Brands at $3.13 billion, Immunology at $2.61 billion, Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolism at $2.19 billion, and Neuroscience at $1.61 billion; the mix indicates a diversified revenue base capable of carrying mid-single-digit aggregate growth.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Core Pharmaceuticals Portfolio
Novartis AG’s core portfolio spans Oncology, Immunology, Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolism, Neuroscience, and Established Brands, and last quarter this mix produced revenue of $13.91 billion with a gross profit margin of 75.38% and net profit margin of 27.36%. The company’s internal forecast for the current quarter projects revenue of $13.54 billion, EPS of $1.96, and EBIT of $4.59 billion, suggesting a moderation from last quarter’s levels while maintaining year-over-year expansion. The elevated gross margin underscores pricing discipline and product mix led by branded therapies, which tends to buffer profitability against volume fluctuations. Management’s operational cadence, as evidenced by a prior-quarter EBIT outperformance, implies sustained control over cost lines in manufacturing and SG&A, aiding margin preservation. Taken together, the main business is positioned to deliver stable growth, supported by enduring demand across key indications and measured capital allocation into high-return therapeutic areas.
Most Promising Business: Oncology
Oncology remains the largest contributor with $4.38 billion last quarter and continues to be the primary engine for growth. The forecasted year-over-year revenue increase for the company this quarter at 5.72% is consistent with incremental Oncology demand trends, often supported by lifecycle management, label extensions, and geographic rollout. The segment benefits from a combination of established blockbusters and advancing pipeline assets that allow for sustained share-of-voice among prescribers in solid tumors and hematology. Margins in Oncology are typically supportive of overall profitability, reinforcing the company’s 75.38% gross margin benchmark achieved last quarter. The segment’s growth runway appears intact, with a balanced mix between mature franchises and assets transitioning from late-stage development to commercialization, thereby underpinning the EPS forecast of $1.96 with year-over-year growth of 8.26%.
Factors Most Impacting the Stock Price This Quarter
The first determinant is the revenue outcome versus the $13.54 billion estimate and whether reported gross margin holds near the last quarter’s 75.38% level; any deviation in mix or pricing will directly influence the EPS sensitivity. The second determinant is EBIT delivery relative to the $4.59 billion forecast, particularly whether operating leverage is preserved after last quarter’s $5.46 billion performance; investors will scrutinize SG&A and R&D trajectories for signals on margin durability. The third determinant is the performance of Oncology relative to expectations, as outsized growth or weakness in this segment can sway overall results; alongside this, the balance among Immunology, Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolism, Neuroscience, and Established Brands will help validate breadth of growth and margin stability. A final lens is the quarter-on-quarter net profit trend, given last quarter’s parent-company net profit of $3.93 billion and a sequential change rate of -2.80%; stabilization or a rebound would influence sentiment around execution consistency.
Analyst Opinions
Across institutional commentary gathered in the period, the majority view skews constructive on Novartis AG’s near-term earnings trajectory, emphasizing mid-single-digit top-line growth, margin resilience, and an EPS path aligned with the company’s $1.96 estimate. Analysts highlight the prior-quarter EBIT outperformance and stable gross margin as supportive of earnings quality, with the consensus-style stance anticipating the revenue projection of $13.54 billion and year-over-year EPS growth of 8.26% as achievable. Well-followed research desks point to Oncology’s role in underpinning the expansion, while also noting that diversified segment contributions lessen reliance on any single franchise. The bullish narrative centers on disciplined costs and a clean execution setup that could produce a modest positive surprise if revenue mix favors higher-margin brands and if SG&A remains within planned ranges. The prevailing institutional takeaway is that Novartis AG is positioned to report a credible quarter with revenue growth of 5.72% year-over-year and earnings supported by consistent operating performance.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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