The US economy added 336,000 jobs in September, highlighting concern that the labor market isn't cooling as fast as the Federal Reserve would like in its battle against inflation.
The nonfarm payroll additions nearly doubled the 170,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected. Revisions to the August and July jobs reports released Friday showed there were 119,000 more jobs created during those months than previously reported
The September unemployment rate was 3.8%, in line with the number from August.
Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at, according to data from Bloomberg:
Nonfarm payrolls: 336,000 vs. +170,000 (est.)
Unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.7% (est.)
Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: 0.2% vs. +0.3%
Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.2% vs. +4.3%
Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 vs. 34.4
The labor market has been a key factor in the Federal Reserve's read of the economy, which remains in focus ahead of the central bank's next policy meeting on November 1.
On Sept. 20, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted there still needs to be "some softening" in the labor market to keep inflation moving down to the Fed's 2% goal. If that isn't continuously seen, Powell has warned that could push the Fed to raise rates again.
"Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response," Powell said in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
A week full of labor market data leading into the report has shown some indications of a cooling labor market.
The ADP National Employment Report report showed 89,000 private payroll jobs were added to the US economy in September. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected job additions of 150,000 for the month. Wage data from ADP showed the difference between wage growth gained by leaving a job versus staying is at its slimmest margin since October 2020.
On Tuesday, the latest Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, revealed there were 9.6 million jobs open at the end of August, an increase from the 8.92 million job openings in July and the highest reading since May. But economists pointed out that the quits rate and hiring rate remaining at pre-pandemic levels during August will help keep wage growth, a key indicator watched by the Fed, lower.
As of Thursday evening, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance the Fed doesn't raise rates at its next meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
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