**Oilseeds & Oils: Supply-Demand Improvement Expectations Drive Rapeseed Decline** This week, oilseeds and oils markets weakened, with domestic performance lagging behind international trends. Rapeseed products saw a delayed decline, while palm oil experienced heightened volatility.
**Global Soybeans**: Brazil's soybean planting has concluded, with recent rainfall benefiting crop growth. Analysts maintain optimistic yield forecasts. Brazil exported 3.57 million tons of soybeans in December, surpassing last year's volume. In Argentina, planting is over 50% complete, and reduced rainfall aids progress, with most agencies holding steady on production estimates. Post-January/February, global soybean supply is expected to expand as Brazilian harvests hit the market.
China continues modest U.S. soybean purchases, with confirmed orders around 4 million tons and rumors of nearly 8 million tons. Current volumes fall short of the U.S.’s earlier 12-million-ton target, likely extending procurement deadlines to late February. Higher U.S. prices compared to Brazil have dampened demand. The January USDA report may lower U.S. export estimates and raise inventory projections, pressuring soybean prices.
Domestically, three soybean auctions saw declining participation (77% → 62.9% → 32.66%) and falling average prices, reflecting eased supply concerns but weaker demand. Overall, near-term oilseed supply remains ample, but tepid demand persists.
**Edible Oils**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated sharply, initially rallying on import concerns before retreating on assured supply expectations. Weak demand accelerated its decline. Bearish themes dominated global oils: U.S. biodiesel policy delays weighed on soybean oil, while Malaysia’s palm oil inventories rose above 2.8 million tons in November. Poor December exports and limited production cuts erased earlier premiums. Lower import costs failed to spur demand.
**Strategy**: Maintain bearish outlook; consider selling call options.
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**Eggs: Ample Supply Keeps Prices Weak** 1. Egg futures rebounded briefly Monday but resumed declines amid soft commodity markets and unchanged fundamentals. By Friday, the January 2026 contract (2601) closed flat weekly, while the February contract (2602) fell 1.2% to 2,886 yuan/500kg. Position shifts to the February contract dominated trading.
2. Spot prices stabilized late week at 3.04 yuan/jin (Dec 19), down 0.05 yuan weekly. Demand lacked catalysts, though some regional sales improved modestly.
3. Producers face losses (-0.17 yuan/jin as of Dec 18), curbing restocking enthusiasm. Hatchery utilization held at 57% for seven weeks, signaling slower supply growth into February 2026. Early culling reduced available older hens, potentially slowing capacity adjustments. Weak futures suggest观望; monitor restocking/culling trends.
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**Corn: Delayed Supply Pressure Triggers Adjustments** **Global**: Wheat and corn dipped on abundant supplies. Argentina’s record wheat harvest (forecast at 27.7M tons for 2025/26) pressured corn demand. U.S. corn found late-week support from improved exports.
**Domestic**: Corn edged down to 2,310 yuan/ton (Dec 18, -13 yuan weekly). Northeast prices stabilized amid muted auction news. North China traded range-bound as farmers sold steadily, while traders stayed cautious. Port prices softened with lower arrival costs. Technically, May/July futures face resistance; March 2026合约 shows rebound potential.
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**Hogs: Winter Solstice Demand Lifts Prices** 1. Prices rose faster late week, hitting 11.7 yuan/kg nationally (Dec 18, +0.32 yuan). Henan (benchmark) gained 0.45 yuan to 11.88 yuan/kg. Northern demand climbed post-snowfall; southern markets followed as processors raised bids.
2. Breeding sow prices dipped to 1,560 yuan/head (Dec 12, -7 yuan), while piglets held at 219 yuan/head (Dec 18). Disease concerns in the north curbed restocking.
3. Sow culling fell 0.72% MoM in November 2025;后备母猪 sales rose 10%.
4. Average slaughter weight inched up to 124.79 kg/head (Dec 18), with regional splits: northern weights dropped due to early sales, while southern hubs pushed heavier hogs for holiday demand.
5. Profitability improved: Self-breeding losses narrowed to -170 yuan/head (-43 yuan WoW); outsourced piglets saw losses shrink to -174 yuan/head (-95 yuan).
6.屠宰量 surged 33% YoY in October 2025. Weekly slaughterhouse operating rates rose 3.18 pp to 44.67% (Dec 18) on holiday stockpiling.
7. Futures: Near-term反弹 expected for March合约; longer-term strength hinges on disease control and policy-driven inventory cuts.
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