On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans continued their decline as the large-scale U.S. harvest neared completion.
The crop report showed that 88% of the U.S. soybean crop had been harvested, slightly above the five-year average. U.S. soybean production is expected to hit a record high. On Tuesday, private exporters reported sales of 134,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations and 136,000 tonnes to China.
Domestically, protein meals continued to probe lower. Falling costs and weak downstream purchasing appetite both weighed on soymeal futures. As soybean crushing volumes recovered to high levels, soymeal inventories continued to climb, rising more than 20% year-on-year, with accumulation pressure weighing on the market. The futures market continued to digest the pressure from falling import costs and high inventories, with future focus on soybean cost and soymeal demand expectations, as well as capital flows.
Oils and Fats
On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell to a one-month low, pressured by continuously rising inventories. The market expects Malaysia's October palm oil inventories to climb to a record high, with October stocks potentially rising 6.8% month-on-month to 3.75 million tonnes. Canadian rapeseed closed lower, and U.S. soyoil closed lower, tracking crude oil's decline. Statistics Canada's upward revision of canola stock estimates also weighed on the market.
Domestically, oils and fats futures followed overseas markets lower. Palm oil fell more than soyoil and rapeseed oil. Expectations of a potential easing in the Middle East pressured crude oil prices, also spilling over to the market. Domestic oils and fats inventories continued to climb, with downstream purchasing mainly for immediate needs and limited market transactions. Weak fundamentals currently dominate the market, with future focus on geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and terminal consumption conditions.
Live Hogs
On Tuesday, near-month hog futures led the decline, with far-month contracts following, as the pattern of near-month weakness and far-month strength persisted. That day, the live hog weighted contract added 29,000 lots, with total open interest at 477,000 lots. In mid-October, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced that national breeding sow inventories at the end of Q3 2026 fell to 36.02 million head, with the year-on-year decline widening to 10.7%, substantially breaking below the 37.5 million head normal retention red line for the first time.
The slope of capacity reduction continued to steepen, yet hog prices remained fluctuating narrowly at low levels. The divergence of "accelerating capacity clearance, yet prices slow to recover" has drawn sustained market attention. On November 3, mainstream live hog transaction prices in the Heilongjiang market were 8.88 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from November 2, with the pattern of strong expectations and weak reality continuing in the hog market.
Overall, after the National Day holiday, the supply side of the hog market continued to increase weight, spot hog prices declined seasonally, low-priced meat supplied the market, and hog prices faced downward adjustment pressure, with the strong expectations-weak reality pattern unchanged.
Eggs
On Tuesday, egg futures fluctuated and adjusted, with the main 2612 contract oscillating during the session, closing down 0.36% at 3,551 yuan per 500 kg, with open interest and trading volume increasing. On the spot side, data showed that as of November 3, national egg prices were 4.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from November 2. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 4.1 yuan/jin. In sales areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 4.29 yuan/jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.55 yuan/jin.
Market supply was stable with flat demand, and egg spot prices stabilized after an earlier rebound. Futures prices, after a period of sustained gains, fluctuated and adjusted. Focus on the impact of spot prices and market sentiment on futures prices.
Corn
On Tuesday, corn showed near-month strength and far-month weakness. Near-month contracts, supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, continued to rebound, with the weighted contract's total open interest maintained at a high level of 2.25 million lots. Northeast new-season corn harvesting was basically complete, with基层 moist grain market arrivals gradually increasing and supply pressure emerging.
Sinograin gradually initiated rotation purchases in Northeast production areas, releasing a policy signal of "bottom-line thinking," providing some support to market sentiment, but the purchase volume was not yet sufficient to fully offset the pressure of new grain arrivals. Grassroots farmers showed some reluctance to sell, especially expecting further policy support for high-quality grain sources. However, moist grain had high moisture content, and some traders and drying towers were cautious in purchasing, with a relatively light buying and selling atmosphere.
Last weekend, rainy weather in North China limited grassroots market arrivals, with deep-processing enterprises receiving low volumes, and some enterprises slightly raising prices to attract grain sources. But after the weather cleared, grassroots selling willingness recovered, arrivals rebounded significantly, and enterprises took the opportunity to press prices lower, with the price center slightly declining. The window for Northeast grain flowing south into North China had not yet fully opened, but if the price spread widened further, the North China market would need to watch for the impact of Northeast grain inflows on local prices.
Southern sales areas were currently mainly consuming earlier inventories, with feed enterprises purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis and weak willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Imported grain arrivals declined from earlier levels, reducing substitution pressure on domestic corn and providing some support to domestic prices. However, poor downstream breeding profits and overall weak feed demand meant sales area prices lacked sustained upward momentum. In the medium to long term, key focus should be on grassroots farmers' grain-selling progress, changes in Sinograin purchase intensity, and the recovery of downstream breeding demand. If grain-selling progress is slow or policy support intensifies, the price bottom would be further consolidated, but conditions for a trend reversal were not yet in place.
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