Overnight in the U.S. market, COMEX copper futures closed up over 2%, with intraday prices touching $6.58 per pound. LME copper futures also rose nearly 2%, climbing above $13,800. As a market sentiment catalyst, the U.S. Department of Commerce must submit a new copper market assessment report to former President Trump by June 30, including recommendations on whether the U.S. should impose import tariffs on refined copper.
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that U.S. copper imports in the first half of 2026 significantly exceeded expectations. They forecast the full-year accumulation of U.S. copper inventories to be revised up from 550,000 tonnes to 900,000 tonnes. Once this copper enters U.S. warehouses, it is effectively "locked away" and no longer flows to international markets like the LME. Consequently, LME copper prices reflect the further tightening of the remaining global supply. Goldman Sachs has therefore sharply increased its forecast for the supply deficit in the "non-U.S." copper market from a previous 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes. Its deficit forecast for 2027 has also been raised from 40,000 tonnes to 170,000 tonnes.
Beyond the sentiment-driven impact of potential U.S. tariffs, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Citi have also indicated in recent reports that weaker-than-expected mine supply prospects, coupled with sustained demand from AI and the energy transition, will continue to support copper prices.
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end copper price forecast by over 10%, from a previous estimate of $12,465 per tonne to $13,735. This revision is based on a weaker-than-anticipated global mine supply outlook and a further tightening of supply-demand dynamics in markets outside the U.S.
The bank lowered its 2026 global copper mine supply growth forecast by 350,000 tonnes. This downgrade is attributed to production disruptions at Indonesia's Grasberg mine and the Democratic Republic of Congo's Kamoa-Kakula mine. Both major operations are not expected to return to full capacity until 2028.
Citi, in its latest report, also raised its copper price forecasts. It expects prices to reach $14,500 per tonne this month and to climb to $15,000 per tonne within the next year.
Hong Kong-listed stocks related to copper resources include: Zijin Mining Group (02899),
CMOC Group Limited (03993), China Nonferrous Mining Corporation Limited (01258),
MMG Limited (01208), and Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358).
Comments