Ryanair Holdings slightly increased some key targets for the full fiscal year, disappointing those investors hoping for a more robust outlook and joining some major US carriers in projecting caution because of geopolitical tensions.
US-listed Ryanair fell 3.4% in premarket trading.
The Irish budget carrier is the first major European airline to report earnings, and it usually sets the tone for the regional industry. Ryanair is “cautiously guiding” for full-year profit after tax excluding exceptional items of €2.13 billion ($2.5 billion) to €2.23 billion.
That barely met analyst forecasts, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares fell as much as 2.3% in Dublin to the lowest in six weeks in intraday trading, with Deutsche Bank Group analysts calling the net income guidance conservative. The stock is down for the year, compared with a 55% gain in 2025.
“It very much depends on the close in bookings over the balance of this quarter on whether we’re at the upper end or the bottom end of the range,” Chief Financial Officer Neil Sorahan said in an interview.
Despite good demand, United Airlines Holding Inc., Delta Air Lines Inc. and Alaska Air Group Inc. recently reported cautious profit forecasts following challenges including tariffs and the US government shutdown.
Even manufacturers are warning of geopolitical risks this year, with Airbus SE Chief Executive Officer Guillaume Faury telling staff they should be “ready to adapt at all times,” Bloomberg News reported Monday.
In the third quarter, Ryanair’s profit after tax fell to €115 million, excluding a provision of €85 million for a fine from Italy’s competition authority. That’s down from €149 million the previous year and compares with the €90.2 million average of 11 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Traffic for fiscal 2026 is set to rise 4% to almost 208 million passengers, up from the 207 million predicted in November, Ryanair said Monday. Fares will exceed 7% growth by 1-2 percentage points as they trend higher than the year prior, the airline said.
“Consumers continue to travel in numbers, capacity continues to be hugely constrained in Europe, and all of this is leading to slightly higher air fares,” Sorahan said.
Europe’s biggest budget carrier cited good progress with Boeing Co. deliveries, a turnaround from its frustration a year ago as its sole aircraft supplier struggled to hand over jets on time.
The airline expects the final four Max 8 models to be delivered by February, while the newer Max 10, which hasn’t been certified yet, is set to come into Ryanair’s fleet in spring 2027.
Boeing is “ever increasingly confident” it can get certification for the Max 10 this summer, Sorahan said. The second flight tests for the Max 7 and Max 10 as well as the ramp-up for a fourth production line are positive signs from the planemaker, he said.
The deliveries allow Ryanair to edge its fiscal 2027 passenger goal higher to 216 million from 215 million, it said. The airline previously raised its passenger growth target for fiscal 2026 to 207 million.
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