Spot Gold: On April 30th, market sentiment: During the European trading session on Thursday, the spot gold price continued its rebound. According to Bloomberg, the price of gold rose after three consecutive days of decline, with some bargain hunting helping to recoup a portion of the recent losses. The price increased by as much as 0.9%, surpassing $4,600 per ounce, following a cumulative decline of 3.4% over the previous three trading sessions. Although the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday was in line with market expectations, some hawkish policymakers voiced dissent, opposing the wording in the post-meeting statement that suggested the Fed might eventually resume interest rate cuts. Technical perspective: On Thursday, April 30th, spot gold was trading at $4,620.40, up 0.90%. The price advanced in the last trading session, supported by positive signals from the Relative Strength Index following the formation of a bullish divergence. This helped the price recover some prior losses and alleviated oversold conditions. However, aside from remaining below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average, the price is still moving within a short-term bearish correction wave and trading below a key descending trendline, reinforcing the negative outlook and limiting the potential for sustained near-term gains. Key resistance levels to watch in the evening are around $4,670 and $4,693, while support levels are seen near $4,597 and $4,565. Evening Trading Recommendations for Gold: Personal suggestion: Consider buying on a dip to $4,602 ± 3 and selling on a rebound to $4,685 ± 3. Set a stop-loss of 15 USD for each trade, with profit targets of 30/80 USD.
WTI Crude Oil: Market sentiment: On Wednesday, U.S. crude oil surged by $8.87, a gain of 8.9%, marking its third consecutive day of increases, primarily due to stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump clearly stated that any reconciliation agreement must include Iran's formal consent to dismantle its nuclear program, which Iran has firmly rejected. With the Strait of Hormuz largely closed to commercial energy transport, supply disruptions are intensifying. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has broken back above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-April; Brent crude settled near $111 per barrel. The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook released this week forecasts a significant 24% rise in global energy prices by 2026, which would be the largest annual increase since the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Technical perspective: From a technical standpoint, WTI crude has shown strong upward momentum after breaking through a key psychological level. On the daily chart, the price has moved significantly away from all major moving averages, indicating a steep unilateral uptrend. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, suggesting robust short-term upward momentum, but caution is warranted for a potential technical pullback. Initial resistance above lies in the $111.00-$113.00 range; a decisive break above this area could pave the way for further gains. Key support below is first seen in the $106.00-$105.00 zone (recent breakout level and psychological barrier), with more substantial support around $103.4. Focus for the evening is on resistance between $109.0 and $113.5, and support at $106.0 and $103.4. Evening Trading Recommendations for Crude Oil: Personal suggestion: Consider buying on a dip to $103.4 ± 3 and selling on a rebound to $109.0 ± 3. Set a stop-loss of 1.5 points for each trade, with a profit target of 4.0 points per barrel.
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