On November 3, the market experienced volatile adjustments. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.73%. On the board, AI comic animation, battery, and food and beverage concepts gained strength. On the downside, computing power hardware concepts weakened collectively, and physical AI concepts fluctuated downward. More than 3,300 individual stocks across the market declined. The combined turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, a contraction of 80.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.
In the afternoon, Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (510050), E Fund ChiNext ETF (159915), Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF (510300), and Huaxia STAR 50 ETF (588000) continued to see expanded volume, marking the first time since the "924 rally" in 2024 that four broad-based ETFs exceeded 10 billion yuan in single-day turnover on the same day.
Monday's rebound did not show much continuity on Tuesday. After a brief dip and recovery in early trading, another pullback followed, which was rather regrettable. In today's review, we approach from two relatively distinctive perspectives.
A Wave of Limit-Ups Among "Yang" Names
By the close, 52 stocks across the market hit the daily limit up, among which 11 stocks had names containing characters pronounced "yang," such as "yang," "yang," and "yang," accounting for approximately 21.2%. These include: Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002086), Zhejiang Yankon Group Co., Ltd. (ASX: 600261), Shandong Shengyang Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002580), Sichuan Datangyang Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002263), Shandong Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002088), Chint Solar Co., Ltd. (ASX: 601877), Jiangsu Taiyang Cable Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002300), Baifu Foods (ASX: 002696), Jiangxi Sunshine Dairy Co., Ltd. (ASX: 001318), Guangdong Sunshine Co., Ltd. (ASX: 000608), and Jiangsu Yangzi New Material Co., Ltd. (ASX: 002652). This was also the day with the heaviest herding sentiment since October, when speculation on "yang" names gradually drew market attention.
According to Wind, from October 8 to 21, the proportion of "yang" stocks among daily limit-up stocks was basically in the single digits, with a maximum of only 10%. At this point, less sensitive short-term traders could not yet discern the grouped "name speculation" pattern and were more likely to interpret it as coincidental across various themes.
On October 22, only 33 stocks hit the limit up across the market, but "yang" names (6 stocks) accounted for 18.2%, and the limit-up stocks shifted from "familiar faces" to a batch of new names, which can be seen as the first "small climax" in October.
After October 26, the proportion of "yang" names among limit-up stocks "fluctuated upward," even continuously "dominating the board" at the end of October and early November. As of today, this logic is still continuing and has not yet confirmed a retreat.
You may wonder: can "name speculation" really make money? From a short-term perspective, indeed a group of speculators who "believe early" can achieve floating profits and smoothly cash out; but from the history of name speculation in A-shares over the years, after the retreat is confirmed, it often brings considerable declines.
Some analysts say that as long as enough investors believe "homophones will move in sync," they will buy when the sync occurs, and thus the sync really happens. Funds only need to follow this belief, not believe in it themselves. From a game theory perspective, this is called higher-order beliefs: buying not because the stock is good, but because knowing "others will buy due to homophones."
Zhongji Innolight Falls Below 500 Yuan
Although "name speculation" is an objectively existing market style at present, if you do not participate, it is merely a kind of "sentiment indicator." The strengthening of this style corresponds to the weakness of another style — for example, tech heavyweight stocks that are both tied to indices and require liquidity support, and their corresponding dual-innovation indices.
Zhongji Innolight Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 300308), which closed at 550 yuan yesterday, opened lower and moved down in early trading, briefly finding support at the 500 yuan mark; but after a second dip in the afternoon, it still fell below this threshold.
It is worth noting that about two months ago, on September 7, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of ZJ INNOLIGHT (ASX: 03308) H-shares with a "Buy" rating and a 12-month target price of 3,267 Hong Kong dollars. At the same time, it reiterated the "Buy" rating for A-shares, maintaining a target price of 2,645 yuan. At that time, the A-share price of Zhongji Innolight was still fluctuating roughly between 800 and 900 yuan, and few could have predicted that from September 22 to now, the "CPO leader" would fall from a high of 973.79 yuan to a low of 480 yuan, with a maximum drawdown reaching "halved."
Was Goldman Sachs wrong? According to the latest research report, on November 2, the institution lowered the target price of Zhongji Innolight H-shares (03308.HK) from 3,267 Hong Kong dollars to 2,829 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "Buy" rating; the A-share (300308.SZ) target price was lowered from 2,645 yuan to 2,405 yuan. According to Wind statistics, the current consensus target price for Zhongji Innolight A-shares among institutions is 1,373 yuan, indicating "extremely large upside potential" from the current stock price.
Reports say that NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently publicly showcased its next-generation co-packaged optics (CPO) technology at SEMICON West 2026, called OOI (Optics-on-Interposer). NVIDIA did not announce any commercialization timeline for OOI, only stating that it has obtained prototype samples. It should be emphasized that in the short to medium term, OOI will not impact the domestic optical communication industry. NVIDIA's Rubin platform will introduce the first generation of CPO starting in the second half of 2026, with large-scale volume production in 2027; Rubin Ultra plans to extend CPO to cross-rack interconnect after 2027.
For the A-share market outlook, a research report from Debon Securities stated that the possibility of a market rebound is rising, and technology may usher in a round of oversold repair opportunities. However, in terms of structural aspects, it believes that industry rotation may be more frequent in November. "The dual-innovation indices that fell significantly earlier may have greater elasticity, but if the US AI industry performs weakly, or external disturbances such as geopolitical situations affect market risk appetite, then value sectors such as finance and consumer may perform relatively better."
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