Hong Kong stocks remained relatively stable, rising 0.61% today, while A-shares staged a resilient recovery to end higher after persistent weakness. Yesterday's sudden news was confirmed: Iranian President Pezeshkian issued an official statement in the early hours of the 18th local time announcing the death of Larijani in an attack. Netanyahu stated that Basij militia commander Soleimani had also been killed. He added that ongoing military operations are weakening Iran, with more "surprises" to follow. The situation is now clear: Iran's ability to sustain counterattacks depends on internal factors, with deep infiltration being a fatal vulnerability. Furthermore, relying on primitive communication methods means any disruption could lead to decapitation strikes. If no authoritative leader emerges to unify command, internal instability may follow. The U.S. and Israel likely aim to achieve ultimate victory by eliminating senior figures to trigger internal collapse. Netanyahu's strategy appears focused on "decapitation" operations. The key question is whether Iran can stabilize internally and prevent further losses of core leadership. If stability persists, retaliatory actions may intensify, with continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeping shipping tensions high. COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation (01138) rose nearly 8% today, while previously mentioned Chifeng Gold (06693) gained over 7%.
On March 18, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded to questions about President Trump postponing his China visit, noting that both sides would maintain communication regarding the arrangement. Trump implied that the U.S. seeks unilateral control over the Strait of Hormuz without sharing interests with other nations. Controlling this vital passage would essentially grip the global economy by the throat, denying access to non-compliant countries. The methods employed for control remain the U.S.'s primary challenge—potentially involving elimination of coastal missile sites followed by ground troop deployment. However, even if controlled, the strait remains international waters where unilateral dominance is legally untenable. Iran's current actions specifically target the U.S. and its allies, providing legal justification. Market consensus suggests unilateral control would disrupt global trade秩序, potentially triggering soaring energy premiums and heightening uncertainties for economic recovery. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz situation, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning previously emphasized that maintaining regional security aligns with international common interests.
Returning to markets, yesterday's sluggish session gave way to a tech stock resurgence today. South Korean reports on the 18th indicated that 93.1% of Samsung Electronics' union members voted to strike. Barring major changes, a full strike will occur from May 21 to June 7. As a critical global memory chip supplier, Samsung's strike would exacerbate supply chain tensions. Meanwhile, memory giant Micron saw its market cap surpass $500 billion for the first time. Related stocks surged: GigaDevice (03986) rose over 11%, previously highlighted FIT Hon TENG (06088) gained over 12%, Shanghai Fudan (01385) climbed 11%, while Montage Technology (06809), Cambridge Technology (06166), and ASMPT (00522) advanced over 8%. Yangtze Optical Fibre (06869) consistently followed the trend, rising over 11% today, though note that shareholder Yangtze Communications plans to reduce its stake by up to 0.12%.
AI models provided additional momentum. Domestic media reported MiniMax (00100) launched its new flagship Agent model M2.7, demonstrating "model self-evolution" capabilities. The model handles 30%-50% of development workloads via its Agent Harness system, achieving ~30% improvement on internal benchmarks. The stock surged nearly 20%. Meanwhile, Zhipu (02513) recently released its base model GLM-5-Turbo for OpenClaw scenarios—its first closed-source model in 2025—while raising API prices by 20%, marking its second recent hike. The stock jumped over 19% today. Continuous AI advancements directly drive cloud service price increases. Alibaba Cloud announced hikes for AI computing and storage products by up to 34%, with computing cards rising 5%-34% and CPFS storage ~30%. Its MaaS platform Bailian achieved record growth in Q1 2025, shifting resources toward Token-based services. Cloud leader Kingsoft Cloud (03896)—previously highlighted as a top pick—surged over 18%. AIDC concept stock GDS Holdings (09698) soared over 15%, while Sunevision (01686) gained over 6%.
AIDC construction drives demand for supporting equipment. Institutions estimate U.S. AI-driven power capacity demand will grow at a 55% CAGR from 2025-2028, with cumulative demand exceeding 150GW over three years. North America's electricity shortages make self-built power solutions a major trend, with gas turbines emerging as the preferred primary power source for AIDC. Dongfang Electric (01072) secured a milestone order for 20×50MW gas turbine generators from a Canadian client at ¥200 million per unit, with 40-50% gross margins, boosting its stock over 11% today. Wasion Holdings (03393) won another overseas order: its Brazilian subsidiary secured a contract to supply core grid equipment to top utility CEMIG, totaling BRL 138 million (≈HKD 206 million). Deliveries will occur over two years. The company expects 2025 net profit of ¥1-1.06 billion, up 42%-50% YoY, with earnings due March 26. The stock rose over 9%.
A breakthrough in regenerative islet microtransplantation by a Chinese team signals major innovation in pharmaceuticals. Related stocks: minimally invasive device maker MicroPort (00853) rose over 4%, diabetes immunosuppressant developer Remegen (09995) gained over 7%, with other innovative drug stocks also advancing. Fed Chair Powell will chair his penultimate FOMC meeting tonight. Market consensus expects no policy change given high Middle East uncertainties. Key focuses include whether the statement addresses Iran conflicts, geopolitical impacts on U.S. economic uncertainty (especially inflation views), and dot plot revisions.
Sector focus: Industry visits reveal that smartphone price hikes are materializing due to soaring memory costs. Beyond OPPO and vivo's announced adjustments, other brands plan similar moves. Entry-level models rose RMB 200-500, while new flagship increases reached ~RMB 1,000 (though some budget models held prices). Insiders note that low-end hikes lag cost increases, pressuring mid-to-low-tier manufacturers who may face short-term losses. Amid memory price surges, phone makers are adjusting inventory strategies while shifting focus to premium products; upstream component suppliers are reallocating resources to wearables and home devices with lower memory needs. Key players: FIH (02038), Cowell E (01415), Q Technology (01478), AAC Technologies (02018).
Stock analysis: Hans CNC (03200) benefits from robust PCB industry momentum and ample orders. NVIDIA's plan to integrate LPU solutions in new architectures signals an AI computing shift from general-purpose to dedicated inference. The company forecasts 2025 net profit of ¥785-885 million (+160.64%-193.84% YoY) and non-GAAP profit of ¥780-880 million (+271%-319% YoY). As a global PCB equipment leader with 6.5% market share in 2024, it has topped CPCA rankings for 16 years. It holds >30% domestic drill market share and >35% in laser drilling, serving 80% of global top PCB clients. High-end substitution accelerates: its AI server multilayer board share exceeds 40% domestically, priced 40% below imports. It leads in drilling precision (±15μm mechanical, 35μm CO₂ laser, 25μm UV laser). Advantages include mass production capabilities and shorter delivery cycles than Western/Japanese rivals. Global expansion via Southeast Asian subsidiaries/service centers drove overseas revenue to 13% in 2024, benefiting from supply chain migration. Partnerships with downstream leaders are advancing, with M9 laser drills already NVIDIA-certified for mass production in 2026. As AI infrastructure expands, the PCB equipment leader is well-positioned for growth.
Comments