After giving back some of its September gains on Thursday, XRP's price fell to around $1.50, marking a 24-hour decline of 6.3%, though its cumulative weekly gain still exceeds 15.6%. Within the broader market rebound, three key bullish signals have emerged, even as the historically weak seasonal risk of October gradually approaches.
From the perspective of holder sentiment and derivatives speculation activity, the market structure has shown significant divergence. According to Santiment data, XRP's 365-day MVRV ratio stands at approximately -11.75%, meaning long-term holders who bought over the past year are on average at a loss. While this figure is higher than Dogecoin's -19.26%, it is lower than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink, which are all slightly above 0%. A lower MVRV ratio typically suggests reduced profit-taking pressure, thereby limiting further price declines. Historical experience shows that buying during market downturns often leads to better long-term investment opportunities.
Meanwhile, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the value of XRP futures open interest on Binance has risen to nearly $600 million, comparable to January levels and significantly above the 180-day moving average of approximately $445 million. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that positive funding rates indicate buyers are driving position increases, signaling a resurgence in speculative activity after months of sluggishness. The return of positive sentiment in the derivatives market is favorable for the current upward momentum, though excessively high open interest values could pose risks. At present, conditions remain manageable.
On the capital flow front, XRP spot ETFs (XRPC.US) have demonstrated rare stability. According to SoSoValue data, since mid-July, XRP ETFs (XRPC.US) have recorded net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks, including the current week ending September 23. In contrast, Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT.US) saw outflows of up to $462.7 million in the week ending September 11, with outflows occurring in three of the past several weeks. Ethereum-related products (ETHA.US) also lost $140 million in the week ending September 18. Although XRP ETF (XRPC.US) weekly net inflows have been relatively small, mostly between $1 million and $20 million, with only the week ending August 28 reaching $110.5 million, its cumulative net inflows have totaled $1.75 billion.
However, demand indicators in the spot market have not fully kept pace. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out that XRP's premium rate on Coinbase (COIN.US) compared to Binance has dropped to approximately 0.0055%. This indicator, typically seen as a reflection of U.S. spot market purchasing power, currently suggests demand is not strong, lacking signs of a sustained premium.
Historical seasonal factors cast a shadow over future price movements. According to CryptoRank data, over the past 13 years, XRP's price has declined in October during 8 of those years, with an average monthly decline of 5.14%. Last October, the decline reached as much as 11.9%. Against the backdrop of three major bullish signals intertwined with a historically weak month, whether spot buyers on Coinbase (COIN.US) will join the ranks of ETF investors will become the key variable determining whether the upward momentum can continue.
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