Copper:
Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices experienced a rise followed by a pullback, closing marginally higher. The loss on physical refined copper imports into China narrowed. On the macro front, the US JOLTS job openings for May saw a slight increase to 7.594 million, slightly exceeding the 7.585 million in April and the forecast of 7.3 million, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The market awaits further guidance from the US non-farm payrolls data due on Friday. Geopolitically, the Middle East situation has added new complexities. Although a memorandum of understanding was signed between the US and Iran, the situation remains intricate, with slow progress on navigating the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Israel has continued to expand its military operations in Palestinian areas and maintained a posture of high-pressure deterrence against Iran. Regarding inventories, LME stocks decreased by 3,875 tonnes to 329,225 tonnes; Comex stocks increased by 2,093 tonnes to 604,497 tonnes; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,328 tonnes to 74,617 tonnes; BC copper warehouse receipts remained steady at 8,229 tonnes. The US dollar index rose and then fell overnight, while US stocks again showed strength, boosting market risk appetite and supporting copper prices. However, copper faces continued pressure from expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, and its sustainability warrants monitoring. Additionally, the formal submission of the updated US Section 232 copper tariff report is pending, with the market awaiting the outcome. Although some market pricing has already occurred, volatility is still expected.
Nickel & Stainless Steel:
Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.55% to $16,310 per tonne, while SHFE nickel rose 0.32% to 126,780 yuan per tonne. Inventory-wise, LME stocks increased by 6 tonnes to 274,440 tonnes, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 110 tonnes to 98,201 tonnes. Looking at spreads, the LME 0-3 month spread remained in negative territory; the import nickel spread rose by 50 yuan per tonne to -150 yuan per tonne. On the news front, at a related meeting on June 30, 2026, Indonesia's ESDM did not announce an official figure for the total RKAB nickel ore quota increase for 2026. The base quota remains at 260 million wet tonnes, with new supplementary quotas pending approval and announcement by ESDM. On the supply side, attention is needed on the quota situation for the second half of the year. Additionally, an expected easing in sulfur supply could subsequently improve the utilization rates of related production capacity. On the demand side, production schedules for June indicate that ternary material demand is expected to be flat month-on-month, while nickel consumption in stainless steel is projected to decline slightly. For the current nickel industry chain, inventory pressure remains the core issue. Concurrently, nickel ore prices may continue to weaken, potentially eroding cost support. It is also important to note that if quotas continue to be issued in the second half of the year, prices may remain under pressure.
Alumina, Primary Aluminium & Aluminium Alloy:
Overnight, alumina prices showed a weak, volatile trend, with the AO2609 contract settling at 2,783 yuan per tonne, down 0.25%. Open interest increased by 3,134 lots to 290,000 lots. Overnight, LME aluminium settled at $3,085.5 per tonne, down 0.08%, with inventories decreasing by 1,550 tonnes to 303,700 tonnes. The AL2608 contract settled at 22,610 yuan per tonne, up 0.11%, with open interest decreasing by 7,216 lots to 284,000 lots. Aluminium alloy prices showed a stronger, volatile trend. Overnight, the main AD2608 contract settled at 22,645 yuan per tonne, up 0.42%, with open interest decreasing by 366 lots to 7,658 lots. On the physical market, SMM's alumina price rose back to 2,776.8 yuan per tonne. The spot premium for aluminium ingots expanded to a 10 yuan per tonne premium. Foshan A00 aluminium was quoted at 22,490 yuan per tonne, a 10 yuan per tonne discount to Wuxi A00. Processing fees for aluminium billets remained stable in Baotou but were raised by 40-100 yuan per tonne in other regions. Processing fees for 1A60 series aluminium rod were raised by 100 yuan per tonne; fees for 6/8 series were raised by 100 yuan per tonne, while fees for low-carbon 6/8 series were lowered by 339 yuan per tonne. New alumina production in Guangxi is ramping up, sufficiently offsetting reductions from environmental controls in Shanxi, making the northward movement of southern supply a primary theme. Support at the bottom for alumina is evident, with marginal pricing showing mixed movements. Influenced by Fed rate hike expectations and a pullback in crude oil, aluminium prices face short-term sentiment-driven pressure. However, aluminium has shown relative resilience due to stronger-than-expected destocking. Both domestic and international orders are facing noticeable contraction, but export resilience exists under the current dynamic of weaker domestic and stronger international prices, leaving room for potential upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to downstream restocking enthusiasm following any price corrections.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon:
On the 30th, industrial silicon prices showed a stronger, volatile trend. The main 2609 contract settled at 8,385 yuan per tonne, up 0.06% intraday, with open interest increasing by 7,477 lots to 305,000 lots. Baichuan's spot reference price for industrial silicon was 9,121 yuan per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The price for the lowest deliverable grade fell to 8,600 yuan per tonne, with the spot premium expanding to 330 yuan per tonne. Polysilicon prices also showed a stronger, volatile trend. The main 2609 contract settled at 35,325 yuan per tonne, up 0.48% intraday, with open interest increasing by 782 lots to 108,000 lots. The standard for the lowest deliverable grade was lowered to 34,985 yuan per tonne, with the spot premium narrowing to 120 yuan per tonne. Industrial silicon producers in southwestern China are gradually accelerating their resumption of operations, narrowing the price gap between high and low grades. The futures-spot spread and concentrated deregistration are leading to a flow of warehouse receipts back into the market. Downstream sectors still lack concentrated restocking, keeping marginal inventory pressure on industrial silicon and limiting upside potential. Expectations for large-scale production cuts in the polysilicon industry have not materialized, with the market returning to a pattern of low-level volatility. The market is focused on potential updates to energy consumption policies following relevant meetings, with news flow likely to cause further disturbances. Caution is advised against sharp market fluctuations.
Lithium Carbonate:
Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2609 contract rose 8.36% to 163,360 yuan per tonne, with intraday open interest decreasing by 12,132 lots to 425,000 lots. Regarding spot prices, the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,750 yuan per tonne to 146,500 yuan per tonne. The average price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,750 yuan per tonne to 152,500 yuan per tonne. The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 4,750 yuan per tonne to 143,750 yuan per tonne. For warehouse receipts, inventory increased by 242 tonnes yesterday to 48,731 tonnes. On the news front, Sinomine Resource Group announced its decision to conduct temporary maintenance and shutdowns on the lithium salt production lines of its subsidiary, Sinomine Resource (Jiangxi) Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. Starting June 30, 2026, the "30,000-tonne high-purity lithium salt" production line at Jiangxi Sinomine Lithium will undergo temporary shutdowns. Starting July 11, 2026, the "35,000-tonne high-purity lithium salt" production line will undergo temporary maintenance, operating at reduced local capacity. This temporary maintenance is expected to be completed by the end of July 2026. The company will arrange for resumption based on the arrival of its self-produced spodumene concentrate and will issue further announcements accordingly. This temporary shutdown will lead to a short-term reduction in the company's lithium salt output. On the supply side for July, some lithium salt producers, including Sinomine, are reducing production. Meanwhile, demand performance remains relatively robust. According to SMM production schedule data, lithium battery production is scheduled to increase by 7% month-on-month, with domestic production up 7% and overseas production up 4%. Domestically, ternary power battery production is scheduled to increase by 7% month-on-month, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) power battery production by 9%, and LFP energy storage battery production by 4%. Regarding inventories, large-sample inventories decreased by 1,207 tonnes week-on-week to 129,959 tonnes, while small-sample inventories decreased by 833 tonnes week-on-week to 95,812 tonnes. Based on the large-sample data, inventories in other segments decreased by 2,924 tonnes week-on-week to 66,179 tonnes, smelter inventories increased by 122 tonnes to 15,495 tonnes, and downstream inventories increased by 1,595 tonnes to 48,285 tonnes. Fundamentally, although social inventories are still being drawn down, the short-term pressure exposed by warehouse receipts and basis has eased somewhat but persists. In the short term, the better-than-expected July production schedules may accelerate destocking, providing a short-term stimulus to prices. However, from a medium-term perspective, consideration must be given to the potential gradual increase in supply from the resumption of operations at the Jianxiawo project. Additionally, shipments of lithium ore from Zimbabwe are expected to arrive in concentrated volumes in late July, which could lead to a month-by-month deceleration in the pace of destocking during the third quarter.
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